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NorthGeorgiaWX

Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

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29 minutes ago, SouthSideDahlonega said:

so fun looking at the maps, and then seeing what you and others post.  I suspect many of us are just seeing blobs, whereas folks like you are seeing a much more granular picture.  like King said i'm starting to take notice of the high position and strength rather than just looking at the storms. Try to look at the 500 mb vorticity too, if I'm saying that right.   But I have a question. what is the difference between GEFS and GEPS. I assume the E stands for ensemble. 

Yes the vorticity map is great for being able to see the individual pieces of energy. The reasons for the timing differences I noted earlier are actually better seen on the vorticity, but I didn't want to post that map cause it's a lot harder to understand. But basically yesterdays 18z had better stream separation allowing our piece of energy to dig deeper in the SW US which slowed down the timing and allowed the high to move over top of the storm instead of behind it. And the GEPS is the canadian model ensemble.

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49 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Steve, can you post the 12Z ensemble data when it finalizes?

Yep, just got back in from walking. 🙂 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yep, just got back in from walking. 🙂 

Ahhhh the retirement life sounds glorious 

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11 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

Any chance the system coming this weekend dumps any snow ?

Yes, I think you'll see some snow from it. It won't be anything major, but it will kick off the winter flip for you!

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We are so so close to being able to score multiple storms if the trough ridge pattern will align just a bit further east, which I’m hoping the long range holds for us. I’m fine with relying on timing cause it usually works out at least a time or two but I’d rather not have to lol.

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Knowing my luck, I will be out of town when it snows 😂. Keeping an eye on this thread and ready to storm chase as soon as the snow drops.

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23 minutes ago, SNOW said:

Today’s guidance = rain ! 🤮

Yes, rain coming up through the nighttime hours of Saturday and into Sunday. There could be a switch over to snow as the cold air comes pouring in.

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16 minutes ago, SNOW said:

Today’s guidance = rain ! 🤮

You can’t look at the surface output on operational models right now. Anything past 4-5 days is probably 100% wrong. There is way too much energy flying around for models to be any good past that. The smallest of details will make the difference between what we saw at 18z yesterday and what you saw today. And those details are just too fine to be predicted with any skill in such a hectic environment.

But everyone needs to understand, we are going to see a lot of rain storms, expecting otherwise is a fairytale. Try not to let that get you down. Let’s just do a hypothetical where we say that over the next 2 weeks we see 8 storms. A realistic expectation would then be that we would see 6 all rain, 1 mixed event, and one nice snow. That is winter in the South. Is more than that possible? Certainly, but it is never likely. Normal chances of snow in the south are darn near zero. The pattern we’re going into gives us a much better chance than normal, but the chances are still low until you look outside and it’s snowing. 

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

You can’t look at the surface output on operational models right now. Anything past 4-5 days is probably 100% wrong. There is way too much energy flying around for models to be any good past that. The smallest of details will make the difference between what we saw at 18z yesterday and what you saw today. And those details are just too fine to be predicted with any skill in such a hectic environment.

But everyone needs to understand, we are going to see a lot of rain storms, expecting otherwise is a fairytale. Try not to let that get you down. Let’s just do a hypothetical where we say that over the next 2 weeks we see 8 storms. A realistic expectation would then be that we would see 6 all rain, 1 mixed event, and one nice snow. That is winter in the South. Is more than that possible? Certainly, but it is never likely. Normal chances of snow in the south are darn near zero. The pattern we’re going into gives us a much better chance than normal, but the chances are still low until you look outside and it’s snowing. 

Although once we dive into this period, I believe it will flip to more snow, less rain. I know that's not normally what happens here, but this isn't going to be a normal period.

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Although once we dive into this period, I believe it will flip to more snow, less rain. I know that's not normally what happens here, but this isn't going to be a normal period.

Agreed. I was strictly speaking of the next week and a half or so when that track to our NW is more likely than not.

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Agreed. I was strictly speaking of the next week and a half or so when that track to our NW is more likely than not.

Yep this pattern looks like cutter after cutter for the foreseeable future 

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1 minute ago, LoveSnow said:

Yep this pattern looks like cutter after cutter for the foreseeable future 

That will be the norm, but like I said only for the next week or so. And even then, yesterdays 18z showed that only a very small change and that cutter is suppressed and turns into a massive winter storm.

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