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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Travelling to Savannah with 34 students Wednesday 23rd through Friday the 25th. My fear is not being able to travel back and/or missing a big Snow! So I'm following this thread extremely closely to help me make decisions. Thanks for all you all do!

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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Look I know we all tend to look a lot closer to home when it comes to looking at the models and wonder why it cant get that right more often. But in reality that's not what it's predicting. It is trying to predict the entire northern hemisphere. And every single thing is connected. One small change on the other side of the globe can lead to big changes in what we perceive for our own back yards. That's why when things are this hectic, its useless to get worked up over what a single model run shows past just a few days. 

This is yesterdays big snow run. And if I showed you the same image today, unless you knew exactly what to look for, you wouldn't see why they're different. Just the subtlest of changes can make or break what we actually see, and in the long range the models change wildly with each run so there's still a long way to go just for next weeks storm which is still a legitimate threat at this range.gfs_z500a_nhem_fh138-240.thumb.gif.5287f43c912dbba6e23ad465a7ef96c3.gif 

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7 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Let you're husband know that you have the inside scoop that says otherwise.  😉 

My husband is the same way. I am always updating him when yall get excited on here and I refer to you as "my people" lol. He said earlier "so what are your people saying now?" I told him when it snows just remember 'I told ya so' lol

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8 minutes ago, cjmj1008 said:

My husband is the same way. I am always updating him when yall get excited on here and I refer to you as "my people" lol. He said earlier "so what are your people saying now?" I told him when it snows just remember 'I told ya so' lol

I do the same thing!  I say "My weather sources..."  Remember our local weather lady -  Dagmar?  I can't remember her last name.  My husband always says "OK, Dagmar."

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29 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

I do the same thing!  I say "My weather sources..."  Remember our local weather lady -  Dagmar?  I can't remember her last name.  My husband always says "OK, Dagmar."

Lots of men will listen to Dagmar.... 😉

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10 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Other than operational models, how are y’all viewing the ensembles? What sites? I’m only familiar with tropicaltidbits.com 

Here's a list of sites that are free. Now... many sites can't display the hi rez Euro but all will have the GFS. But... many of the ensemble charts that I show are only available from two sources, Weathebell.com and WeatherModels.com, which of course are paid. You can use the WeatherModels.com site for a trial period and right now you can sign-up for $10/month. Great deal. 

There are other specialized sites for specific things like ENSO, MJO, etc, etc. 

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12 minutes ago, momto2auties said:

I'm not a real teacher......just a sub (and in Dawson, not Gwinnett).  But I love learning about weather too and appreciate that you sometimes use words even a weather geek wannabe like me can understand!

Not a requirement AT ALL. Just a love for the weather. 🙂

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's a list of sites that are free. Now... many sites can't display the hi rez Euro but all will have the GFS. But... many of the ensemble charts that I show are only available from two sources, Weathebell.com and WeatherModels.com, which of course are paid. You can use the WeatherModels.com site for a trial period and right now you can sign-up for $10/month. Great deal. 

There are other specialized sites for specific things like ENSO, MJO, etc, etc. 

Awesome! I’m totally down for paying as I’m a total weather nerd year round! Thank you Steve!

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1 hour ago, JenRay said:

Travelling to Savannah with 34 students Wednesday 23rd through Friday the 25th. My fear is not being able to travel back and/or missing a big Snow! So I'm following this thread extremely closely to help me make decisions. Thanks for all you all do!

Check back with me as we get closer. 

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does anyone ever study the different (lets just say GFS) ensembles to see if one usually scores better than the rest for our area.  I would assume each member has its own version of the programming and parameters and is discreet, but I don't know. i wonder if they give each the same weight when they are put together.  Some other terms floating around about this i'm unsure of are "control run / operational run", and then "weeklies".  I see people saying, the Euro / GFS etc nailed that storm from a week out, but I never hear anyone say, ensemble x seemed to be the closest to what we got the whole way through. 

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The control run of the ensembles are what the other runs are based off of. Each run has a slightly perturbed initialization, so each run starts off a little different from the control, so it's not the model physics that make each ensemble member different.

The operational model run is also the deterministic run. Those are all single run models. The ensembles are multi-run models, they consist of a control run and the ensemble members that are based on that control run. The GEFS (GFS ensemble) has 20 members (21 including the control) and the Euro has 50. The Euro ensembles are also called EPS 

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18 minutes ago, SouthSideDahlonega said:

does anyone ever study the different (lets just say GFS) ensembles to see if one usually scores better than the rest for our area.  I would assume each member has its own version of the programming and parameters and is discreet, but I don't know. i wonder if they give each the same weight when they are put together.  Some other terms floating around about this i'm unsure of are "control run / operational run", and then "weeklies".  I see people saying, the Euro / GFS etc nailed that storm from a week out, but I never hear anyone say, ensemble x seemed to be the closest to what we got the whole way through. 

The ensembles aren’t really a forecasting tool for “nailing a storm”. The details are smoothed out by the product of averaging all those runs. They are great for telling you whether or not what you are seeing on the operational, or main runs of the GFS/Euro/etc., has support or if it is just an anomaly on one run. Basically they are useful for setting forecast confidence. If the ensembles of both models are saying the same thing and they’re operationals are also on board, then you can have very good confidence in what you’re seeing, just knowing that as you go farther out in time that diminishes.

 

edit: oh and the weeklies are a product of the Euro ensembles that runs twice a week and extends them well beyond the range of our normal models. Generally products are given in 7 day averages hence the weeklies name. They don’t have a ton of skill at their longest ranges but they are sometimes good for hinting at whether big changes are on the horizon or not.

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