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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Each ensemble member for the next 16 days

gefs_snow_ens_nc_65-15.thumb.png.6a7374d88fcea404714d991359fd538a.png

15 out of 21 are promising for a snow wisher (at least in extreme N GA). Everything is looking good! 

P.S. My wife and I are from Michigan. We only want ONE big storm and then we've had enough snow lol.

Also, our tires are due for an upgrade. All this winter weather wishing might come back to bite me in the butt lol. A quick thank you to the plethora of teachers in here! I'm extremely passionate about weather and it's cool to be around so many educator's as the former pain in the ass class clown! 

Edited by SlicNic13
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Sure looks like some of the models are backing off on the intensity of the cold air Sunday into Monday as well as the next shot of cold air after that.  I mean yes it’s going to get cold but not extremely cold not even getting into the teens in most places.  Maybe this is a good thing because like others have said don’t want it to be super cold leading to suppression city.  I sure hope everything comes together to give us a good winter weather event.  There are definitely some good signs but I’m not gonna put all my chips in the bag.  Hope Mother Nature cooperates and gives us all what we want!  In the meantime my fingers are crossed!  Have a great day everyone 

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29 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

Sure looks like some of the models are backing off on the intensity of the cold air Sunday into Monday as well as the next shot of cold air after that.  I mean yes it’s going to get cold but not extremely cold not even getting into the teens in most places.  Maybe this is a good thing because like others have said don’t want it to be super cold leading to suppression city.  I sure hope everything comes together to give us a good winter weather event.  There are definitely some good signs but I’m not gonna put all my chips in the bag.  Hope Mother Nature cooperates and gives us all what we want!  In the meantime my fingers are crossed!  Have a great day everyone 

The deeper cold will come once the blocking is fully establish.

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6 hours ago, numbersandsnowflakes said:

Another teacher here! I teach Coordinate Algebra in Columbia County! I call you "My Weather Guy" and tell everyone at school whenever you post there is even the slightest chance for snow!!! So much so, I've earned the nickname, "Weather Girl!" Thank you for all you do!! 

Welcome! And thank you for following!

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NWS Atlanta 6 am Wednesday AFD update

Quote

The other pesky part of the system will be with how much low
level wrap-around moisture is present as the strong CAA kicks in
for Sunday and what portions of north GA could see some light snow
showers. The latest trends continue to have the far northern tier
of GA seeing some potential mainly in the 12-18z window of
Sunday, but the columns appear to dry rapidly so still thinking
little to no accumulations. Despite these uncertainties, the
greatest confidence is in Sunday and Sunday night being very
blustery and abnormally cold. Temps during the day should be
steady to falling slightly with many areas in north GA not even
reaching the 40 degree mark, then expect Sunday night/Monday
morning to have temps mainly in the low to mid 20s (teens for
mtns) and resultant wind chills in the teens (single digits for
mtns) given the enhanced NW gradient winds.

 

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Also, pay attention to this. The word tornado is in there, so pay attention over the next day or two.

Quote

With departing weak wave/front Thursday night into Friday, the
main focus continues to be on the influence of a much higher
amplitude system and well organized attendant sfc low set to
traverse the area Saturday into early Sunday. Models are now in
better consensus with intensity and timing so have raised
categorical pops and fine tuned trends. Overall looks like
Saturday night will have the heaviest precip, though WPC QPF has
backed off quite a bit on storm totals as it now looks like
widespread 0.5-1 inch and up to 2 inches in the mtns.


Also, now with some slightly higher (though still relatively low)
progged MUCAPE values, have included slight chance thunder
mention farther north given the robust dynamics. Any attainable
instability would bring an isolated severe or brief tornado threat
given the very high shear values in both the low and deep layers,
so will need to keep a close eye on this period with updates.

 

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The problem with the GFS operational runs is that it doesn't see the -EPO like the ensembles do, so we have some disagreement between itself.  This is allowing storms to flood the west coast instead of being shunted north or south. That's why you see cutters on the operational. 

In this situation, you have to lean toward the ensembles, never trust the operational with no ensemble support. 

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15 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Something I’ve noticed even with the EURO ensembles is that any chance of wintry precip keeps getting pushed back. Just not a fan of those trends 

Yep you’re exactly right.  This has been the theme for a while now.  Not just precip but temperatures as well.  I haven’t seen this much hype from people ever regarding the prospects of the next 30-45 days.  It honestly surprises me the amount of people going out on a limb with these wintry predictions, sure hope they are right!  I know lots of people are going to be upset in 30-45 days if these predictions don’t come to fruition to some degree.  I will not be one of those upset because that’s the weather for you, it will humble you very quickly!!  I will be disappointed, not upset!  I want to make it clear that I wouldn’t be disappointed in any person or any post...just disappointed in Mother Nature for not cooperating!!

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Guys... ye of little faith. 😄 Patience. The forecast is unfolding as planned.  You are putting WAY too much emphasis on the modeling solutions right now. The changes that are forcing this pattern flip are well known at this point (seasonal jet changes, major stratospheric warming, weak Modoki el Nino, placement of warm/cool pools in the oceans, low solar),  and the tropospheric response to those is well known. The models ARE showing what's coming, but you have to pay close attention to the details of those. All of those details are hidden in the chaos they are spitting out right now. We do know that the track of the first storm will cut, and we know why, it's been telegraphed why for a week now. No surprises. 

We need to get settled in the pattern. Look, it hasn't done the major flip yet. The models are still dealing with that portion and need to get that correct before they can possibly look out 10 days or longer. 

Look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly.  

-AO

gefs_ao_00-16.png.faca083c92b861c2d55c4526d8d6ece5.png

 

-NAO

gefs_nao_00-16.png.a209a2a2b6774dc08c48e417e990c835.png

 

+PNA

gefs_pna_00-16.png.7b264d86d4354ab03f2324f20a030f9b.png

 

-EPO

gefs_epo_00-16.png.0dc0a28fa4f1553bb00ef3c6366ffba9.png

 

So surprise! The operational doesn't jive with it's own ensemble teleconnections! And think about this too, for the 00Z run of both operational models today, the Monday low temps are 10 degrees warmer on the GFS operational. NWS sided with the Euro. Not sure what goes on with the GFS operational sometimes.

Either way, both the Euro and GFS support the teleconnection ideas, and those are about as favorable as they get. 

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Unrelated to the upcoming storm but related to snow.  I'm in Canton Cumming area and is it frost or a very very thin line of snow on the ground this morning that I am seeing?  At first I though it was frost but when I got closer to look at I am pretty sure it is snow.  Call me crazy. 

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7 minutes ago, Ham360 said:

Unrelated to the upcoming storm but related to snow.  I'm in Canton Cumming area and is it frost or a very very thin line of snow on the ground this morning that I am seeing?  At first I though it was frost but when I got closer to look at I am pretty sure it is snow.  Call me crazy. 

Should be frost, I had a lot this morning. 

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35 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This is what I was saying. Let the pattern get established.  Winter is coming.

I hope everyone understands the significance of what Brad is saying about cross-polar flow. Cross-polar flow allows Siberian air to be transported to our side of the hemisphere. Yes, moderation occurs, but take a look at the coldest Canadian temps right now

Snap346062277-16.thumb.jpg.9b5e375acd7a5c96bec0503bc53b0f5e.jpg

 

And then take a look at the coldest temperatures int he Northern Hemisphere. Siberia.

Snap346062278-16.thumb.jpg.bfbf2cf8994790baec208c682eafe121.jpg

So there is PLENTY of cold to tap in to. Just let the pattern settle in and settle down, and you'll see the sub-tropical jet bringing all kinds of potential to the southeast. 

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52 minutes ago, Ham360 said:

Unrelated to the upcoming storm but related to snow.  I'm in Canton Cumming area and is it frost or a very very thin line of snow on the ground this morning that I am seeing?  At first I though it was frost but when I got closer to look at I am pretty sure it is snow.  Call me crazy. 

Good morning ham360 I'm at East Cherokee and Cumming Hwy and watched the outside cameras, it is frost but definitely looks like snow at first glance. 

Are you an amateur radio operator? KF4NYQ here. 

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