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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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Sorry, just got back from my old school! I went to help get my replacement person up to speed on what I did there, so I need to see what's going on while I was away. But first... I need to go exercise. 🙂 You haven't missed anything so far and one more hour isn't going to cause you to miss any earth shattering weather update. 😜:classic_biggrin:

I'll be back for an afternoon update for you, . 

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1 minute ago, Asperman1 said:

Snow is good and all, but a tornado chance, to me anyways, takes up my mind more

Right now, not a big deal.

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...DISCUSSION...
   As a shortwave trough travels from TX across the southeast on
   Saturday/D4, low pressure will move from AR across OH and TN,
   gradually deepening. A cold front will extend south, moving from the
   Sabine River across LA, MS, and AL during the day, with low 60s F
   dewpoints to the east. Lift with this system, including warm
   advection above a relatively cool boundary layer, will result in
   widespread precipitation along the front and ahead of the low, with
   thunderstorms interspersed. Instability will be weak, but strong,
   veering winds with height may favor a few wind gusts with some of
   the stronger activity. While isolated severe gusts may occur,
   potential is too low at this time frame to introduce a risk area.

 

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

It’s done that several times in the last day or so. Its own ensembles don’t support it so for now, treat it like he 384 on the GFS should be treated 😉

Especially when it isn't acting like i want it too...  🙂 

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2 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Especially when it isn't acting like i want it too...  🙂 

Exactly, that’s how this whole model thing works right? 

In all seriousness though I refuse to be concerned with that until it shows up somewhere in the EPS suite or even in its own ensembles. Who knows, maybe it’s trying to pick up on a slight moderation and reload of the pattern and because it’s 384 GFS it just fell off the rails.

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See... I knew I wouldn't miss anything. 🙂 

Here are some quotes from Joe Bastardi's commentary on the Euro Weeklies. I would like to show those, but technically I can't. But basically, it goes from cold, to colder, to colder, to colder. 

This next quote comes after the week ending March 1st...

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At this point the cold would still have at least a couple of weeks to go. The ridge will go up in Europe, first signaling the U.S. cold has two weeks left. The colder trend of the model will continue. The weekly temperatures will be colder, but as we have been saying not as cold as it's going to get, The January 15-February 14 target period will not disappoint. In addition, major cold will last well into March.

The depth of the U.S. trough is growing on each run and there will be a time it will match or exceed the trough in the Pacific and in Europe. The message remains the same - repeating storm threats and increasingly strong arctic invasions at the coldest time of the year. Strong cold against the normals will hold well into March.

I will continue to push the point that it (the models) is likely not cold enough.

You can see two things. First, it's getting colder on every run. Secondly, the green area we said was coming is coming. Keep in mind models can't catch how cold it will get until the period is focused in front. So back periods in this pattern may not look as cold as they will be and the front periods are still getting cold.

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Here is my message: this has the chance to be unlike any mid-January to mid-March period since at least 1994. I don't think we will see a repeat of January-March 1978 but a challenge to January 15-March 14 that year is on the table. A blend of 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2015 is likely for the next 45 days, and then the following 15 days should look like 2015 (Mar 1-15). that should give you a basepoint for what is coming, As I said, the other big hitters that were even colder are on the table.

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The Verdict

The run is bullish, even more bullish than the last runs which were bullish. This is still not as cold as what I think is on the table here.

 

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Just wanted to let everyone know,  if you click on the menu item that says "Weather", you should get a drop-down box that has some links to a few extras on the site, and mainly the Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) from a few sites close to us. My image below is the desktop version of the site, but you shouldn't have any issue finding it on your mobile device. If you don't read the AFD's, you really should. You will notice that I pull bits and pieces from these to post here, as they are generally full of good technical information. They can be a little more technical than some would like, but they give you great insight into what they might be thinking in the background, and I read every one that is issued.

Here, I have Morristown TN, Huntsville AL, and Birmingham AL since they (especially the Alabama sites) are upstream to us, as it's always helpful to know what is happening in the areas where your weather is coming from. I also have Atlanta and Greenville-Spartanburg SC since a few of the Georgia counties in the northeast corner are serviced by that forecast office. Of course, you can get the AFD from any office in the country at this link: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_all.php

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From the CPC

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For Thursday January 24 - Wednesday January 30: 
Confidence continues to grow for a major cold air outbreak over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS during Week-2, with record cold daily low temperatures being in jeopardy in some places. Anomalous ridging over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska is forecast to intensify and build northward over the course of Week-2. This setup is favorable to promote direct transport of cold air from the high latitudes into Central North America. Anomalous snow cover extending from the Corn Belt through interior of the Northeast from the system highlighted during Week-1 may help reinforce these cold signals. While GEFS guidance is emphasized here in regards to the cold hazards, ECMWF guidance is largely in agreement. A high risk of much below-normal temperatures is introduced today, extending from the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through the Cornbelt, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on the 26th through 29th tied to a reinforcing shot of cold air descending from Canada. Calibrated model guidance has finally caught up to the raw models with the confidence for this cold shot, with a better than 60% chance for the highlighted region to observe daily minimum temperatures below the 15th climatological percentile. This tool also supports sub-zero temperatures potentially digging as far south as Tennessee. GEFS ensemble mean temperature anomalies range from 20 to 30 degrees F below-normal, further emphasizing the cold threat. Additionally, a moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures extends from the Northern and Central Plains through Appalachians on the 25th through 30th, where GEFS reforecast guidance indicates at least a 40% chance of daily minimum temperatures falling within the bottom 15% of climatology. This area is extended eastward through the Atlantic coast on the 27th and 29th as the cold air potentially slides eastward. A broader slight risk of much below-normal temperatures exists for the entire CONUS east of the Rockies throughout Week-2. 

Model guidance supports the potential for a system lifting north-northeastward over the eastern U.S. early in Week-2, resulting in a slight risk of heavy precipitation forecast for parts of the Great Lakes and areas east of the Appalachians on the 24th. ECMWF guidance shows up to 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation in association with this system, while the GEFS features the system but is more progressive with its track and instead emphasizes the precipitation late in Week-1 before drying out on the 24th. Anomalous southerly flow is also indicated across Alaska throughout Week-2 ahead of the mid-level trough anticipated over the Aleutians, leading to a slight risk of heavy precipitation during the early part of Week-2 (the 24th through 26th) for the climatologically wet regions of the Kenai Peninsula and Alaska Panhandle, in addition to Kodiak Island. 

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I want you to take note of this statement:

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This setup is favorable to promote direct transport of cold air from the high latitudes into Central North America. 

He was talking about the west coast ridging, but he's referring to cross-polar flow. Direct path from Siberia to the US on the Siberian Express. Keep in mind, Siberian air is much colder than Arctic air. 

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Guys and girls on this site I just wanna take this moment and apologize for all the negative things I’ve said recently. I know it might seem like an attack on people that know more than me but it’s really not. I want snow just as much as I know Steve does. Please accept this apology.

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13 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Guys and girls on this site I just wanna take this moment and apologize for all the negative things I’ve said recently. I know it might seem like an attack on people that know more than me but it’s really not. I want snow just as much as I know Steve does. Please accept this apology.

It’s really hard when you want something so badly , like a good snow day and it fizzes out. I understand that you just don’t want to be disappointed. But hope is a great thing to have. What I love about this site is there is hope, backed with knowledge. I would much rather follow this site, than the major sites because of the negatives on snow. 

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24 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Guys and girls on this site I just wanna take this moment and apologize for all the negative things I’ve said recently. I know it might seem like an attack on people that know more than me but it’s really not. I want snow just as much as I know Steve does. Please accept this apology.

Thank you.

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