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NorthGeorgiaWX

Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

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14 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

And there is another potential system after that🤗

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

And more to come. 🙂

Yep! Can’t help but to be a little excited at the potential set up!

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NWS about late next week. Any question as to whether it's going to be a strong cold front? 😉 

"For the times they are a-changin''" 

Quote

However, by early Saturday, both
models have a strong cold front moving in the the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. This front should move east through the day Saturday
and begin impacting the CWFA by late Saturday/early Sunday. The
ECMWF is a bit slower than the GFS by about ~6 hours. But, both
models are progging a sharp cold front with widespread precip
coverage.

 

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16 hours ago, RickyD said:

Meatloaf sang a song " 2 out of 3 ain't Bad".  Well  that is what i am seeing at the moment.  The models are showing snow for our area.  The Global models are showing cold dropping in and setting up.  Now that is the 2.

3 is when it starts showing up in our 240 hour or 10 day forecasts.  It still is not there on any app. 

 

Sing Meatloaf....

My app (WEATHER.COM)  has at least 3-4 days now with snow showers , and temps upper 20's about 30.  Couple days mention small accumulations already...  So #3 is here.    So if we stay with the Meatloaf theme, i guess we are rounding third and about to slide in home ------SAFE!!!     As Will always says...  Just a matter of WAIT--    ing

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Is it just me or does this system seem really big and long lasting? 

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1 minute ago, Wendy4 said:

Is it just me or does this system seem really big and long lasting? 

You mean the one that is happening right now?

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8 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

You mean the one that is happening right now?

No, the one starting next weekend.

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3 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Folks... my friend Bob here is trolling us. 😉 Bob use to live here in Atlanta and I use to autocross with him, but he retired and moved to the Cayman Islands. Rat dog. 😜 So if you'd ever like to take a vacation and go scuba diving down there, Bob's the man! 

Bob... once the snow gets here, I'll make sure to send everyone pictures down there. You send the underwater stuff. 🙂

I don't work for them anymore, they were terrible!

I would recommend http://www.caymanturtledivers or http://www.livingthedreamdivers.com

We do enjoy the slow and casual life here.

_5060004.jpg

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17 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I need your moisture. 😛 What's the temp today?

Low 70's actually. It might have hit 80.

 

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17 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

No, the one starting next weekend.

It's multiple systems. 🙂 It's a crazy time coming up. 🙂

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Dude I’m so ready. Things still look good. I trust ya man. If it was just me seeing it I would shrug it off until a 5 day window. Let’s all strap in. 

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Here is a sounding from my area on the 23rd from the GFS....  It has the 540 line( freezing ) all the way to the coast.   It has it 22 degrees with a dew point of 15.  That would be a recipe for some solid snow for all the area

index.png

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5 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Here is a sounding from my area on the 23rd from the GFS....  It has the 540 line( freezing ) all the way to the coast.   It has it 22 degrees with a dew point of 15.  That would be a recipe for some solid snow for all the area

index.png

If the Atlantic ridge would flatten just a bit, and stop it from climbing so steep, the majority of the state would see good snow. Want to see it track west to east along the gulf for at least a little bit to give the cold time to bleed in before it, cause even though it’s a beautiful look, it’s still a cold chasing moisture thing and we all know how those usually work out around here.

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Here's a look at the 16 days panels for the GFS ensembles (GEFS)

500 mb Anomalies

gefs_z500anom_16_east_1-12.thumb.png.d98eea1c85f7d94c30378a66795d4691.png

 

850 mb Anomalies

1228156856_gefs_t850anom_16_east_1(1)-12.thumb.png.c6fa9205086fa59797daff185bac4481.png

 

2m Temperature Anomalies

gefs_t2anom_16_east_1-12.thumb.png.5254a54e24a8f301e378c306d67a9dfe.png

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's a look at the 16 days panels for the GFS

500 mb Anomalies

gefs_z500anom_16_east_1-12.thumb.png.d98eea1c85f7d94c30378a66795d4691.png

 

850 mb Anomalies

1228156856_gefs_t850anom_16_east_1(1)-12.thumb.png.c6fa9205086fa59797daff185bac4481.png

 

2m Temperature Anomalies

gefs_t2anom_16_east_1-12.thumb.png.5254a54e24a8f301e378c306d67a9dfe.png

Makes me feel like a kid in a candy store

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4 minutes ago, firefighter556 said:

What does all of this mean?

Those three images are daily snapshots for the next 16 days.

  • The first image shows 500 mb anomalies (or roughly 18,000 feet). This depicts the pattern. The reds represent high pressures and the darker the red (and orange) the stronger the pressure. The blues represent low pressures/troughs. The trough over the east is exactly what we thought would happen. What you can't see very well in those images are the blocking ridges on the west coast and Greenland.
  • The 2nd image shows the 850 mb anomalies, or about 5000 feet. In order to get snow, we need those temperatures below freezing. 
  • And the last image are the surface temp anomalies. 

Keep in mind, we have 7 days before the "real" cold gets here. Also... these are ensemble images, which means that everything is smoothed out. You should ideally look at each ensemble member and see the spread in the members. I expect to see colder temperatures on the models before we get to next Saturday. 

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19 minutes ago, firefighter556 said:

What does all of this mean?

I was thinking the same thing!

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1 minute ago, Bagsmom said:

I was thinking the same thing!

See my reply above, but what it means in general is that the pattern we've been expecting will be in place in 7 days. We are in a step down phase of it right now, but come next Saturday, we start a whole new ballgame. 

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17 minutes ago, inlovewithwords said:

I'm going to pop on Amazon and order a couple of sleds for the kids.  Ya know.  Just in case.  :classic_biggrin:

I ordered a cord of wood to be delivered tomorrow 🤞🏻

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Gotta love it when the NWS jumps in on your side... 😉

Quote

Main event looks slated for Sat with models in much better
agreement regarding timing. Already have likely pops in there and
that should suffice but again, may need some categorical as events
draws closer. The backside of this system is just outside the
timeframe for the extended, but could prove to be interesting as
ECMWF indicates extensive wrap around component that aligns with
much colder air rushing in at the surface and aloft. In fact,
looks increasingly likely we are headed to a significant pattern
shift in the medium term that could lead to much colder
conditions.

 

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