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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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With an active subtropical jet, and once we get some cold established, the deep moisture will be there, and sometimes in large amounts  as it's been doing all winter. Plus, remember the ratios, the models roughly figure 10:1 when calculating snow totals, so just an inch of liquid precip could mean 10" of snow. The colder the temps in the column, the higher the ratio, ratios of 30:1 are not uncommon in very cold air. Conversely, too warm in the column and you mix in sleet and ice pellets,  and it may drop to 6:1 or lower. But the point is... winter precip totals are many times their liquid equivalent, it doesn't take much moisture to get large snow/sleet totals.

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

LOL! Remember the low that  I liked so much last night. Watch this. 12Z run from yesterday, and today's 00Z run. The low goes from TX to Canada in one run. And people wonder why they aren't seeing any winter storms... 😜 The operational models are WORTHLESS right now.

 

 

You are right models are worthless 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

With an active subtropical jet, and once we get some cold established, the deep moisture will be there, and sometimes in large amounts  as it's been doing all winter. Plus, remember the ratios, the models roughly figure 10:1 when calculating snow totals, so just an inch of liquid precip could mean 10" of snow. The colder the temps in the column, the higher the ratio, ratios of 30:1 are not uncommon in very cold air. Conversely, too warm in the column and you mix in sleet and ice pellets,  and it may drop to 6:1 or lower. But the point is... winter precip totals are many times their liquid equivalent, it doesn't take much moisture to get large snow/sleet totals.

Atlanta is due for a major winter ❄️ storm!

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I like the crankweatherguy, he explains well. This is the system that will bring the big snows to the NE, but it also helps to pull the cold air south in its wake.

 

He's also pretty funny! And cranky.... lol

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Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th.  There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 

🙂 Here we go!

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th.  There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 

🙂 Here we go!

Yep both ensembles have really started to send some signals. Means haven't really jumped yet, but the number of members showing snow is going up. The 6z GEFS for Blairsville looked really nice in that regard.

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4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th.  There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 

🙂 Here we go!

Can you give us a link to that?  I'm not sure where to go to see it.  Tropical Tidbits?

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7 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th.  There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 

🙂 Here we go!

My only issue, this is also me not being patient anymore, is the ensembles keep pushing everything back. I would like to see something "stick" for once in the ensembles and not trend backwards!

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23 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

Can you give us a link to that?  I'm not sure where to go to see it.  Tropical Tidbits?

You can see the low resolution Euro ensembles there, but just a few maps. It's expensive to license the Euro products, so generally the paid sites have the most complete Euro maps.

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32 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th.  There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 

🙂 Here we go!

We’ll have a snowy Super Bowl :classic_laugh:

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