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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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It's hard to believe the tremendous changes from run to run in the models. To me, that's always exciting. It's relatively easy for a model to be fairly accurate even up to 10 days. But when you see lows change positions by a thousand miles.... that is really something, especially from the models that are normally very reliable and stable. 

And I like this. IT tells me the models can't handle what's coming up. Big changes disrupt the models ability to narrow down a solution. As we get closer, those big changes will start to narrow down, the flipping around won't be as amped up, the solutions become more consistent. We need to get past this first system, as it impacts to some extent what happens with the systems coming after it. By the time we get to the 26th, we are locked in with blocking. Storms will be forced south.

It's real. It's gonna happen. And it's gonna happen in a BIG way.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It's hard to believe the tremendous changes from run to run in the models. To me, that's always exciting. It's relatively easy for a model to be fairly accurate even up to 10 days. But when you see lows change positions by a thousand miles.... that is really something, especially from the models that are normally very reliable and stable. 

And I like this. IT tells me the models can't handle what's coming up. Big changes disrupt the models ability to narrow down a solution. As we get closer, those big changes will start to narrow down, the flipping around won't be as amped up, the solutions become more consistent. We need to get past this first system, as it impacts to some extent what happens with the systems coming after it. By the time we get to the 26th, we are locked in with blocking. Storms will be forced south.

It's real. It's gonna happen. And it's gonna happen in a BIG way.

 

The flopping around is insane to say the least. Each model run has had something new and dramatic each run. However, this 12z run.... insane.

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5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It's hard to believe the tremendous changes from run to run in the models. To me, that's always exciting. It's relatively easy for a model to be fairly accurate even up to 10 days. But when you see lows change positions by a thousand miles.... that is really something, especially from the models that are normally very reliable and stable. 

And I like this. IT tells me the models can't handle what's coming up. Big changes disrupt the models ability to narrow down a solution. As we get closer, those big changes will start to narrow down, the flipping around won't be as amped up, the solutions become more consistent. We need to get past this first system, as it impacts to some extent what happens with the systems coming after it. By the time we get to the 26th, we are locked in with blocking. Storms will be forced south.

It's real. It's gonna happen. And it's gonna happen in a BIG way.

 

With a look like that, even Florida should be feeling pretty good about snow lol

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If the EURO were to verify, highly doubt it will be that extreme, then we would not get snow. That is extremely cold, dry air coming from some seriously cold origins. Also, if taken seriously, the EURO says all of North Georgia 10 days from now will experience temperatures at 0 degrees or colder. The mountains well below zero. Insane stuff!

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Want to see something scary. 7 am temps on the 28th according to the Euro. I had to look twice, thought I was looking at 850 mb temps.

Already brought in the plants and getting all of my propane tanks filled up next week. Plan ahead folks, this is nothing to brush off.

ecmwf_t2m_atl_41-18.thumb.png.612c59c029503c5f22988662146de1d2.png

 

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4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Want to see something scary. 7 am temps on the 28th according to the Euro. I had to look twice, thought I was looking at 850 mb temps.

Already brought in the plants and getting all of my propane tanks filled up next week. Plan ahead folks, this is nothing to brush off.

ecmwf_t2m_atl_41-18.thumb.png.612c59c029503c5f22988662146de1d2.png

 

Definitely pipe busting cold for us down in the south

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Want to see something scary. 7 am temps on the 28th according to the Euro. I had to look twice, thought I was looking at 850 mb temps.

Already brought in the plants and getting all of my propane tanks filled up next week. Plan ahead folks, this is nothing to brush off.

ecmwf_t2m_atl_41-18.thumb.png.612c59c029503c5f22988662146de1d2.png

 

That's 'delaying school' cold!!!

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43 minutes ago, Shannon said:

If the EURO were to verify, highly doubt it will be that extreme, then we would not get snow. That is extremely cold, dry air coming from some seriously cold origins. Also, if taken seriously, the EURO says all of North Georgia 10 days from now will experience temperatures at 0 degrees or colder. The mountains well below zero. Insane stuff!

Agreed, but that’s only at the heart of the cold. But you can catch a wave on its way in and again as it relaxes. But in the middle of cold like that and the STJ is going to be extremely suppressed. But like Steve said, I’ll take whatever cold I can get because it’ll still give us chances at frozen precip. And at temps like that it wouldn’t take much moisture at all to get a decent snow, so we could score better than usual on say a clipper rounding the base of the Apps. Honestly I’d be amazed just to see temps like that. I’ve heard stories from my grandpa about some of the legendary cold we had long ago in the mountains and that would surely be memorable. Might freeze our lakes lol

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Agreed, but that’s only at the heart of the cold. But you can catch a wave on its way in and again as it relaxes. But in the middle of cold like that and the STJ is going to be extremely suppressed. But like Steve said, I’ll take whatever cold I can get because it’ll still give us chances at frozen precip. And at temps like that it wouldn’t take much moisture at all to get a decent snow, so we could score better than usual on say a clipper rounding the base of the Apps. Honestly I’d be amazed just to see temps like that. I’ve heard stories from my grandpa about some of the legendary cold we had long ago in the mountains and that would surely be memorable. Might freeze our lakes lol

It would be amazing to have that cold air and moisture to meet up together. Snow ratios could be amazing.

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2 minutes ago, BrianCinMilton said:

So where do the basic weather apps get their data like TWC or even your local TV station app? I am just curious for which model has to show this sort of cold coming down for it to start showing up?

Most of the data you see on those apps are from the GFS model because the data is freely available. Some TV stations etc, get their data from companies like Baron (https://www.baronweather.com/) and I don't know if that data is massaged or not. 

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