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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

12z GFS and Canadian are now also trying to find something for next Tuesday into Wednesday. Interesting. Probably won’t be there next model run 😂

First system we are watching would be Sunday night / Monday morning?

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1 hour ago, LoveSnow said:

We already know the patriots will win it again..... as for the weather? Who knows 

Well... the Rams are the #1 team in the NFL ( not a fan and totally off topic - just a stats thing!) ;)\

Back to WX 🙂

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Crazy how we’ve gained a bit of support over last several runs from the EPS and lost some in the GEFS. Have to wonder if the American models northern stream bias is coming in to play at this range. Because 5-7 days out is a typical range in which model biases start to play games with a system. 

In a lot of ways the GFS actually is improving in how the wave is being handled early on. Yesterday it was trying to dive from the Dakotas to the gulf, which is just too steep of an angle for it to make the turn and develop in time. Now it’s showing the wave dive down from WA/Montana border into the 4 corners region and then on to the Texas coast. I tend to use the 4 corners as a benchmark on whether a storm is digging enough to get us a gulf low, so that’s a great track for us. However at this point the Northern stream just overpowers the system and beats it down. And the ridges aren’t quite as tall as we’d like to get the wave to go neutral and spark development quickly. Long ways to go and very small changes could make this into a very memorable storm. This is going to be an ultimate case of trying to thread the needle. 

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10 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Small changes here and there and everything works, but we just won't know those details for a few days. It's going to be a very interesting model week, not only for this upcoming weekend, but for the weeks ahead. 

If you read the other site I’m on you would think the World was ending if nothing happens with this storm. Holy moly the negativity is just awful and they even have a thread dedicated strictly for pessimism. It’s bad. Sorry back to weather 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Similar only in track. That’s the track we always need for good snows. The dynamics would not be similar. 93 was basically a category 2 hurricane. Almost an impossible storm to repeat. 

a boy can dream.

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27 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Similar only in track. That’s the track we always need for good snows. The dynamics would not be similar. 93 was basically a category 2 hurricane. Almost an impossible storm to repeat. 

 

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