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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Trends are all in the wrong direction for the weekend... The good stuff keeps staying 7-10 days out.

We still have time to re-trend the right way lol I'm just trying to stay optimistic :classic_cool: I assume the ensembles are also back peddling? 

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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8 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Trends are all in the wrong direction for the weekend... The good stuff keeps staying 7-10 days out.

Yeah I’m just staying away from it right now. Everything has been 7-8 days away now for a couple weeks haha 

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9 minutes ago, SlicNic13 said:

We still have time to re-trend the right way lol I'm just trying to stay optimistic :classic_cool: I assume the ensembles are also back peddling? 

Yes GEFS has dropped 3 out of the last 4 runs. EPS just dropped also. There is definitely still time for good trends, just saying from where we are now, the weekend is looking less and less. 

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We all know that the models and trends lose storms only to come in better.  With as messed up as the weather seems right now on any given day we just have to hold tight.  There is one set of model runs that normally do not show great things.  I do not know which one but it has something to do with the various information it looks at or does not look at.  I am just going to keep hoping as it all we can do.

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7 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Just walked back I the door. I'm late for my workout, so give me just a little while! Sorry! :classic_biggrin: But...

If that happened, it would look like this

NOT A FORECAST

cmc_snow_acc_atl_41-21.thumb.png.4208523c9646d80031ffce96ee9571db.png

Livin on a prayer with the Canadian

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14 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Just walked back I the door. I'm late for my workout, so give me just a little while! Sorry! :classic_biggrin: But...

If that happened, it would look like this

NOT A FORECAST

cmc_snow_acc_atl_41-21.thumb.png.4208523c9646d80031ffce96ee9571db.png

Thanks! eye candy at this point but still it is there. I almost wanna not look at any runs for like 3 days. dont wanna jinx it.🤞

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22 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

We all know that the models and trends lose storms only to come in better.  With as messed up as the weather seems right now on any given day we just have to hold tight.  There is one set of model runs that normally do not show great things.  I do not know which one but it has something to do with the various information it looks at or does not look at.  I am just going to keep hoping as it all we can do.

Agreed, but I tend to lean on the ensembles to get through the flip flopping of the operationals, but they're doing the flip flopping too. Just shows how chaotic things are. Even if we miss this weekend, plenty of chances still await.

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15 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Agreed, but I tend to lean on the ensembles to get through the flip flopping of the operationals, but they're doing the flip flopping too. Just shows how chaotic things are. Even if we miss this weekend, plenty of chances still await.

IT'S MY WEATHER AND I WANT IT NOW!! (JG Wentworth money commercial lol)

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So from a timing standpoint alone, it being overnight into the morning of a school/work day, I'm becoming a little more concerned about the potential for light frezing rain/drizzle tomorrow night into Wednesday for the typical CAD region. Wouldn't be enough for anything major, but given the cold temps lately and the overnight timing, roads could quickly become slick. Steve, what are your thoughts on this?

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9 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So from a timing standpoint alone, it being overnight into the morning of a school/work day, I'm becoming a little more concerned about the potential for light frezing rain/drizzle tomorrow night into Wednesday for the typical CAD region. Wouldn't be enough for anything major, but given the cold temps lately and the overnight timing, roads could quickly become slick. Steve, what are your thoughts on this?

Noticed that as well. Coming in at the right time to be a little bit of an issue potentially. 

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35 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So from a timing standpoint alone, it being overnight into the morning of a school/work day, I'm becoming a little more concerned about the potential for light frezing rain/drizzle tomorrow night into Wednesday for the typical CAD region. Wouldn't be enough for anything major, but given the cold temps lately and the overnight timing, roads could quickly become slick. Steve, what are your thoughts on this?

It's possible. The dew point depressions aren't very great, so evaporative cooling will be little help, and even if any precip falls, it most likely fall as virga for the most part. There could be some isolated areas in the higher elevations that may see a little glaze, but it certainly won't be much.

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9 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

Local met shared while he was hopeful, he doesn’t really see any chance for snow in the up coming 7 days.👎🏻

I wouldn't agree that there is no chance in the next 7 days. Just simply a low end chance for now. Next weekend is timing dependent. Models are still close to giving us a storm, it's just that for now they're moving in the wrong direction. Euro is too slow to eject the storm, so not only is it suppressed, but it allows the surface and 850's to warm. But if over the coming week we can trend towards the storm ejecting from the Texas coast quicker, things can change big time for us. Not likely, but still a non-zero chance. And more chances still lie on the table beyond 7 days as well. Only need to score one to make the whole winter. For now, hope remains.

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I wouldn't agree that there is no chance in the next 7 days. Just simply a low end chance for now. Next weekend is timing dependent. Models are still close to giving us a storm, it's just that for now they're moving in the wrong direction. Euro is too slow to eject the storm, so not only is it suppressed, but it allows the surface and 850's to warm. But if over the coming week we can trend towards the storm ejecting from the Texas coast quicker, things can change big time for us. Not likely, but still a non-zero chance. And more chances still lie on the table beyond 7 days as well. Only need to score one to make the whole winter. For now, hope remains.

Euro does not make sense.  But since does weather make sense..  lol  But seriously, it is is wacky in it's timing...

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14 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Euro does not make sense.  But since does weather make sense..  lol  But seriously, it is is wacky in it's timing...

Nope, was definitely a weird run. Seeing both suppression and warmth at the same time was strange. But I suspect it simply warmed because the storm was so late to eject. If it had just ejected normally I imagine the warming wouldn't have happened, as the antecedent conditions would be locked in. But still even if it's out of touch on the temp profile, we have the suppression to worry about then lol. I suspect it's at least Thursday before we get a good feel for this one.

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Nope, was definitely a weird run. Seeing both suppression and warmth at the same time was strange. But I suspect it simply warmed because the storm was so late to eject. If it had just ejected normally I imagine the warming wouldn't have happened, as the antecedent conditions would be locked in. But still even if it's out of touch on the temp profile, we have the suppression to worry about then lol. I suspect it's at least Thursday before we get a good feel for this one.

Personal question, you do not have to answer.  I am a member also of American Weather forums.  Would you happen to be a member there also?

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9 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Personal question, you do not have to answer.  I am a member also of American Weather forums.  Would you happen to be a member there also?

Yes. Have been for a while now. Although I spend a lot more time here now as it’s a lot nicer to actually talk about the weather here at home, as things are a bit Carolina-centric over there. 

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