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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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I like here much more.  It is good to have the source of so many Meteorologists, but Steve gives us that also here and all in one convenient location.   And as stated, this is N Georgia biased weather coverage!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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5 minutes ago, RickyD said:

I like here much more.  It is good to have the source of so many Meteorologists, but Steve gives us that also here and all in one convenient location.   And as stated, this is N Georgia biased weather coverage!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes this site is so much better than those sites 

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13 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So Steve I admit that I haven’t got the slightest idea in how it is meteorologically possible to have our wave suppressed nearly to Cuba, and still have surface temps like this? I’m used to seeing that type of suppression under an arctic dome, but this isn’t something I’ve seen before.

17F44135-021F-42C3-9FAD-1921D15314FA.png

This has thrown me off as well. Doesn’t seem right to me 

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If this winter fizzles out, it's probably my fault.  It seems that the more prepared I am, the more the snow disappears.  The big stuff has always happened when I'm out of something important, like toilet paper.  Maybe I need to go downstairs and get rid of some snacks!  😄

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15 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

If this winter fizzles out, it's probably my fault.  It seems that the more prepared I am, the more the snow disappears.  The big stuff has always happened when I'm out of something important, like toilet paper.  Maybe I need to go downstairs and get rid of some snacks!  😄

My thought exactly, my fault! 

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The FV3 just showed a 93 type storm but it kickstarts too late for us and is a few hundred miles too far to the east. But would be a truly historic storm from NC up the coast. Pressure gets all the way down to 963 over New England and 93 storm set a record at 960. Crazy to see a storm like that create its own cold air. 

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Nope, was definitely a weird run. Seeing both suppression and warmth at the same time was strange. But I suspect it simply warmed because the storm was so late to eject. If it had just ejected normally I imagine the warming wouldn't have happened, as the antecedent conditions would be locked in. But still even if it's out of touch on the temp profile, we have the suppression to worry about then lol. I suspect it's at least Thursday before we get a good feel for this one.

Such is the norm lol what fun would it be if we knew EXACTLY what the weather would be on any given day, 10 days from now?!

Edited by SlicNic13
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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

The FV3 just showed a 93 type storm but it kickstarts too late for us and is a few hundred miles too far to the east. But would be a truly historic storm from NC up the coast. Pressure gets all the way down to 963 over New England and 93 storm set a record record at 960. Crazy to see a storm like that create its own cold air. 

I saw that as well and instantly went into cooling my jets mode lol

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

I like here much more.  It is good to have the source of so many Meteorologists, but Steve gives us that also here and all in one convenient location.   And as stated, this is N Georgia biased weather 

This is the best North Georgia specific weather forum I've found. Very knowledgable folks and legitimate information in a class room like setting where everyone no matter experience can chime in and ask questions with no judgement. This past Saturday night I had company over and found myself frequenting this site. My buddies saw some of the complicated weather nerd graphics we share here and didn't understand why I'm so obsessed lol I feel like it's a family over here!

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5 hours ago, Shannon said:

Livin on a prayer with the Canadian


Seeing as we're quoting Bon Jovi, things are kinda iffy weather wise, and I have nothing at the moment to contribute to the analytical discussion let's try a bit of humor....

 

Living on a Prayer (Southern Winter Re-Mix)


Once upon a time not so long ago
NOAA used to work around the clock, staff's been on furlough
And we’re down on our luck, it's tough, so tough
Steve looks at the models all day, looking for a way
He tries to bring us hope, for snow, for snow

He says, we've got to hold on to the trends we’ve got
It doesn't matter if the CAD’s in place or not
We've got the ensembles that's a lot, for snow
We'll give it a shot

Woah, the model's are flip/flopping everywhere
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Believe in the Polar Vortex, a lobe will get here I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer

Spann’s got his suspenders on cocked
Now he’s reigning us in with his tough talk
It's tough, so tough
We dream of 10:1 ratios
When we whine on the forums, Steve whispers
Guys, it’ll be okay, someday

We've got to hold on to the -NAO
It doesn't make a difference if the wedge is in place or not
We've got a southern slider and that's a lot for snow
We'll give it a shot

Woah, the suppression’s almost there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Cold’s chasing rain, it’ll make it Steve swears
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Livin' on a prayer

Oh, we've got to hold on, dew points low enough or not
You live for the flurry when it's all that you've got
Woah, the trends are almost there
Woah, livin' in the South
Take the clipper, it’ll snow I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer………

Steve, please feel free to remove if I'm straying a bit too far from the discussion
😃

Edited by Jay
grammer
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12 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

It could. But earlier low development is the trend we really need right now on all the models. Regardless of fantasy superstorm or not. Without earlier development moisture transport doesn’t get going until it’s passed us.

I can wait on the fantasy superstorm. but I may or may not have promised a small 9 year old snow for sure this winter > I think it was Bastardi that said we had 167% chance of seeing snow? Something like that. Maybe I will blame him if nothing happens in north gwinnett 😛

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27 minutes ago, JenRay said:

I can wait on the fantasy superstorm. but I may or may not have promised a small 9 year old snow for sure this winter > I think it was Bastardi that said we had 167% chance of seeing snow? Something like that. Maybe I will blame him if nothing happens in north gwinnett 😛

Honestly, I can never understand forecasters making predictions like that for the southeast outside of the mountains. As we are seeing, even in favorable patterns, it can be hard as heck to get snow down here. Chances are better than ever, but there’s still a million and one ways to go wrong.

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I don’t really want to come off as too negative for the weekend potential. There are really only 2-3 scenarios that our storm could follow. One of those would likely at the very least give most of us light snow. And I think at this point we can be equally confident in any of the 3 scenarios. A lot of my posts on days like today may come across as negative, but I am simply just reacting to the models depiction and trying to find a scientific basis for what it’s trying to say. This post from Cranky Weather Guy on twitter depicts these scenarios well, and it’s obvious which one we want.

31782156-FCF0-4F87-8D08-57E76347E921.jpeg.aa17510e130938066d6917f6dd8f4497.jpegA lot of times we are close to the good one, but just develop a bit late. As always seems to be the case, we just have to have patience and let some of the things confusing the models get out of the way. As a final note, the potential for that Miller A track alone has led to this from the WPC,  probabilities might not be high, but hey they’re saying there’s a chance.

22ED34BF-3EE0-43DF-B662-5E15040ACCB7.jpeg.e4c42464148992147c5f5f1fb84c3702.jpeg

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I'm a little confused. Looking at the GEFS teleconnections I see a HUGE -PNA coming up, but when I look on the ensembles, I don't see that.

Look at this. Canadian deterministic and ensemble. All of those under the yellow X are worthless for us. The white track is what we'd like, and those in the black circle would be good for us. Right now we're not seeing "good for us". 

Snap346062316.thumb.jpg.1fa5a6e827e1e9df5fc8855b6cf30379.jpg

 

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10 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm a little confused. Looking at the GEFS teleconnections I see a HUGE -PNA coming up, but when I look on the ensembles, I don't see that.

Look at this. Canadian deterministic and ensemble. All of those under the yellow X are worthless for us. The white track is what we'd like, and those in the black circle would be good for us. Right now we're not seeing "good for us". 

Snap346062316.thumb.jpg.1fa5a6e827e1e9df5fc8855b6cf30379.jpg

 

EPS has shown the -PNA as well for a while but backed off at 12z staying neutral for the entire run. Maybe a broadening coast to coast trough giving the signal? I do think we stand a good chance at getting a low in the gulf for Sunday’s system, I just question whether we can get the phase we need, and whether we can get it quick enough for us.

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7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

EPS has shown the -PNA as well for a while but backed off at 12z staying neutral for the entire run. Maybe a broadening coast to coast trough giving the signal? I do think we stand a good chance at getting a low in the gulf for Sunday’s system, I just question whether we can get the phase we need, and whether we can get it quick enough for us.

The next 48-72 hours of modeling should tell the story. 

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2 hours ago, Jay said:


Seeing as we're quoting Bon Jovi, things are kinda iffy weather wise, and I have nothing at the moment to contribute to the analytical discussion let's try a bit of humor....

 

Living on a Prayer (Southern Winter Re-Mix)


Once upon a time not so long ago
NOAA used to work around the clock, staff's been on furlough
And we’re down on our luck, it's tough, so tough
Steve looks at the models all day, looking for a way
He tries to bring us hope, for snow, for snow

He says, we've got to hold on to the trends we’ve got
It doesn't matter if the CAD’s in place or not
We've got the ensembles that's a lot, for snow
We'll give it a shot

Woah, the model's are flip/flopping everywhere
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Believe in the Polar Vortex, a lobe will get here I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer

Spann’s got his suspenders on cocked
Now he’s reigning us in with his tough talk
It's tough, so tough
We dream of 10:1 ratios
When we whine on the forums, Steve whispers
Guys, it’ll be okay, someday

We've got to hold on to the -NAO
It doesn't make a difference if the wedge is in place or not
We've got a southern slider and that's a lot for snow
We'll give it a shot

Woah, the suppression’s almost there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Cold’s chasing rain, it’ll make it Steve swears
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Livin' on a prayer

Oh, we've got to hold on, dew points low enough or not
You live for the flurry when it's all that you've got
Woah, the trends are almost there
Woah, livin' in the South
Take the clipper, it’ll snow I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer………

Steve, please feel free to remove if I'm straying a bit too far from the discussion
😃

This line made me LOL!

You live for the flurry when it's all that you've got

YESSSSSSSS!!!!

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Interesting CAD scenario forming Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, I haven’t seen much about it other than a post or two from KingOfTheMountains. Confidence is never extraordinarly high for these sort of events but with the cold temperatures we have had in Rabun County the past couple of days (haven’t been above freezing since about 2am yesterday and got down in the teens for over 14 hours in Sky Valley), freezing drizzle/rain could present some travel issues. I’m posting a couple of images, one from the NWS and one from the WPC. (No those colors close to Atlanta are not saying there will be freezing rain, the second image is a probability map of receiving >0.01” of freezing rain) Sorry I had to throw in that disclaimer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that forecast map expand some from the NWS with the guidance from the WPC and they mentioned in the afternoon forecast discussion of a potential winter weather advisory going up for areas along 85 up to the Blue Ridge Escarpment. 

07B49C51-17FC-4BDA-ACD4-193AE09E0900.png

6035AD7D-634E-456D-A4C7-DEE7C1AB9BB1.png

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10 minutes ago, Preston said:

Interesting CAD scenario forming Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, I haven’t seen much about it other than a post or two from KingOfTheMountains. Confidence is never extraordinarly high for these sort of events but with the cold temperatures we have had in Rabun County the past couple of days (haven’t been above freezing since about 2am yesterday and got down in the teens for over 14 hours in Sky Valley), freezing drizzle/rain could present some travel issues. I’m posting a couple of images, one from the NWS and one from the WPC. (No those colors close to Atlanta are not saying there will be freezing rain, the second image is a probability map of receiving >0.01” of freezing rain) Sorry I had to throw in that disclaimer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that forecast map expand some from the NWS with the guidance from the WPC and they mentioned in the afternoon forecast discussion of a potential winter weather advisory going up for areas along 85 up to the Blue Ridge Escarpment. 

07B49C51-17FC-4BDA-ACD4-193AE09E0900.png

6035AD7D-634E-456D-A4C7-DEE7C1AB9BB1.png

The potential is there however it will be hard to overcome the dry air mass we have now. Also, a lot of this information is based off the NAM which hasn’t been that reliable with CAD events this winter. It has overdone the events and then loses them 24 hours out or so. However, we can never say never! 

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1 minute ago, Shannon said:

The potential is there however it will be hard to overcome the dry air mass we have now. Also, a lot of this information is based off the NAM which hasn’t been that reliable with CAD events this winter. It has overdone the events and then loses them 24 hours out or so. However, we can never say never! 

Definitely a lot of uncertainty. The NAM is not the only higher res model showing this though. Very much dependent on uplift and for the valleys and foothills evaporative cooling. The dry airmass will be hard to overcome though. 

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