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NorthGeorgiaWX

Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

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50 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

I know it's a "no no", to put faith in weather apps......but the weather channel app has it snowing almost the whole week of Jan. 20-27. That is crazy! That's not possible here, is it?! 

Well.... it's going to be a pretty wild week I think. 😉 Not sure about that though! We'll see!

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Well.... it's going to be a pretty wild week I think. 😉 Not sure about that though! We'll see!

Iv been watching the App and that is crazy.        Snow every day in Georgia 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Well.... it's going to be a pretty wild week I think. 😉 Not sure about that though! We'll see!

Regardless, I'm excited! I feel like Christmas is on the way, again! 

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Here's a look at the GFS ensembles for three towns in north Georgia, Blairsville, Lawrenceville, and Dalton. You could draw a triangle between them and extrapolate what they might show for you.

You have a control run, 20 ensemble members, and then the ensemble mean. I like to count the members that show snow and watch that trend over time. Notice too, some have crazy high amounts, and I generally like to throw the highest away... unless they are all showing substantial amounts as well. But using these you can get a better idea of the trends in the modeling. 

KDZJ_2019011300_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.8cc197bf8989593722b93b30a91f6752.png

KLZU_2019011300_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.e20ca2f5ea3c926874510c730222c909.png

KDNN_2019011300_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.1da542220a7d376a0f23c64d437ea3c7.png

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On 1/11/2019 at 3:09 PM, LHarkins913 said:

Buckling in! I’m excited!!! 

Yay. Can't wait

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19 hours ago, firefighter556 said:

 

I don't know why that quote option popped up again.  I think it's the internet equivalent of a butt dial.

 

Edited by Bagsmom
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Over Christmas, we watched A Year Without a Santa Claus.  With all this weather excitement going on, I can't help but think Snow Miser and Heat Miser are battling it out for snow in Southtown!  (Maybe Mother Nature will intervene on our behalf!). :classic_biggrin:

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On 1/12/2019 at 5:46 AM, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Folks... my friend Bob here is trolling us. 😉 Bob use to live here in Atlanta and I use to autocross with him, but he retired and moved to the Cayman Islands. Rat dog. 😜 So if you'd ever like to take a vacation and go scuba diving down there, Bob's the man! 

http://www.dnsdiving.com/

Bob... once the snow gets here, I'll make sure to send everyone pictures down there. You send the underwater stuff. 🙂

So does that mean Bob's paying also...I need a vacation but not when we r expecting snow....

 

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4 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's a look at the GFS ensembles for three towns in north Georgia, Blairsville, Lawrenceville, and Dalton. You could draw a triangle between them and extrapolate what they might show for you.

You have a control run, 20 ensemble members, and then the ensemble mean. I like to count the members that show snow and watch that trend over time. Notice too, some have crazy high amounts, and I generally like to throw the highest away... unless they are all showing substantial amounts as well. But using these you can get a better idea of the trends in the modeling. 

KDZJ_2019011300_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.8cc197bf8989593722b93b30a91f6752.png

KLZU_2019011300_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.e20ca2f5ea3c926874510c730222c909.png

KDNN_2019011300_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.1da542220a7d376a0f23c64d437ea3c7.png

I'll take it....Dalton gonna get some snow

 

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So I know this isn’t really why we’re all here, but with the thermal gradient and dynamics that look to be setting up for this weekend is severe weather at all a concern?

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I am so excited. I have always been a weather nerd so for christmas, I got a personal weather station and "Guide To Weather Forecasting" by Storm Dunlop. This mught be my first bug weather event to keep track of and learn. Anybody have any tips for a noob like me?

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5 minutes ago, HiTekRedNek said:

I am so excited. I have always been a weather nerd so for christmas, I got a personal weather station and "Guide To Weather Forecasting" by Storm Dunlop. This mught be my first bug weather event to keep track of and learn. Anybody have any tips for a noob like me?

Congrats on the new weather station! 👍
My first tip would be watch and listen and don't worry that you don't understand some of the things being said. You'll learn to piece together the things your reading and seeing and start to better understand what's going on. If you REALLY want to learn more about forecasting and weather in general, this is THE best place to learn and it's free: 

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php

If you want to learn more about personal weather stations and weather station software, this is the site to use:

http://www.wxforum.net/

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50 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So I know this isn’t really why we’re all here, but with the thermal gradient and dynamics that look to be setting up for this weekend is severe weather at all a concern?

That was my thought as well

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5 minutes ago, Shannon said:

That was my thought as well

 

56 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So I know this isn’t really why we’re all here, but with the thermal gradient and dynamics that look to be setting up for this weekend is severe weather at all a concern?

That possibility exist, but honestly, until we get a little closer, you're not going to get much out of it. I think for most of north Georgia, the cooler air mass will help to prevent anything bad. But, we'll know more in a few days.

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Looking at models so far today and the storm track during this time frame is still to far north. Hopefully adjustments continue. 

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And this from the SPC

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day4-8_outlook.php

Quote

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A progressive upper pattern is expected across the CONUS through the
   extended forecast period. Amplification of an upper trough appears
   probable from Day 5/Thursday into Day 6/Friday as it develops
   eastward across the Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis will also occur
   ahead of the upper trough over the southern/central Plains in the
   same time frame. Low-level mass response to this deepening surface
   cyclone should encourage northward return of at least partially
   modified Gulf moisture potentially as far west as central/east TX,
   as well as parts of the lower MS Valley and Southeast, from Day
   6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday.

   Primary uncertainty continues to be the timing of the upper trough
   as it develops eastward over the central/eastern CONUS. Greater
   low-level moisture return would occur with a slower eastward
   progression and perhaps some surface-based severe thunderstorm
   potential could be realized within the warm sector. A faster
   eastward movement of the upper trough depicted by some deterministic
   guidance would likely limit any substantial severe threat due to
   weaker instability inland. Overall, predictability in the
   large-scale synoptic pattern remains too low to highlight any areas
   at this time.

 

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5 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Looking at models so far today and the storm track during this time frame is still to far north. Hopefully adjustments continue. 

Yeah today’s GFS definitely went with the classic dry cold/warm wet cycle. May take patience even after the flip.

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This is REALLY the point at which I only glance at the operational runs. They are going to be crazy unless you're within 3-4 days right now. It's frustrating to not be able to latch onto something 10 days out, but that's just part of the pattern flip. It's like you are shuffling everything up, and then have to let it settle down again. Once than happens (~7 days) and we get locked into the pattern, it will become much easier to pick out storms. 

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How important is this? Of all the indicies MJO is the one that I know the least about. If it’s as weak as showed, will it even have much impact at all? Or is just not being in a favorable phase enough for some negative impacts? 

 

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

How important is this? Of all the indicies MJO is the one that I know the least about. If it’s as weak as showed, will it even have much impact at all? Or is just not being in a favorable phase enough for some negative impacts? 

 

The MJO forecast hasn't been very skillful lately, and Bastardi made a blog post about that yesterday. If you go to the page that he uses (which I can happily say is my page! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php ) , scroll down and you'll find this image. This is "generally" what happens when the MJO goes into those phase during DJF. However, when there is a Modoki El Nino, it changes a little bit. But we normally want to see a 8-1-2 rotation in the winter. The good part about what you see in the "All Model Mean" (image Michael posted) is that it is in a null state with little to no influence. 

Snap346062253.thumb.jpg.7d06de1867fa62c0778fdce03657cbe3.jpg

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