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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

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23 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The potential is there however it will be hard to overcome the dry air mass we have now. Also, a lot of this information is based off the NAM which hasn’t been that reliable with CAD events this winter. It has overdone the events and then loses them 24 hours out or so. However, we can never say never! 

Yeah the moisture will be very shallow which means it will take some time to see any at ground level. But still, GSP seems more confident this time than they were with the last CAD. I expect a big update from them in the early morning forecast package. I’m just going to monitor their thinking as well as Peachtree Cities. The timing around the morning commute makes any amounts on roads a hazard.

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This was the last image I could see (180) but it was darting toward us. 

2019-01-22.png

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@Preston, you got your Winter Weather Advisory! 

MapImage-22.jpg.ab7f5c6d43d949748b0f1a81724af03a.jpg

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
442 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2019

GAZ008-009-015-016-222000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.190123T0000Z-190123T0900Z/
UNION-TOWNS-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DAHLONEGA AND CLEVELAND
442 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED. A LIGHT GLAZE IS POSSIBLE WITH
  ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* WHERE...UNION, TOWNS, LUMPKIN AND WHITE COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON
  ELEVATED OBJECTS LIKE TREES, OVERPASSES, AND BRIDGES. PLAN ON
  SOME SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS, MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXPECT SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN
AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

 

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And this from the NWS for later in the period. 🙂

Quote

Speaking of that surface high pressure system, it is now expected to
be much stronger in the overnight deterministic model runs than
previously expected. Yesterday, the GFS and Euro had a low-pressure
system developing along the Gulf coast on Sunday, but this beefier
high pressure system is now expected to help push that system much
further off shore that originally expected (Hooray!). But just when
you think we might be out of the woods, Mother Nature comes around
again (I told you last night that we can't have nice things).


At the far end of the forecast period, the GFS is now indicating a
strong cold front pushing through the area once again thanks to the
active pattern we're expected to have with a upper-level longwave
trough center over nearly all the lower 48. The GFS is also
indicating line of showers turning to snow for a large portion of
the forecast area. The Euro is lagging behind with this system, but
is also starting to come in line. However, hold off on buying bread

and milk for the moment. Recent model solutions have been very
inconsistent with Day 6-7 shortwaves rolling through the broader
longwave trough. At a certain point, models can only predict so many
systems in the future as small changes grow exponentially with
time. Therefore, there is little confidence of this coming to
fruition just yet, however, we will continue (as always) to
monitor the situation going forward.

 

 

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Regarding these advisories they should not say “including the cities of Dahlonega and Cleveland “ the advisory is for the higher elevations in these counties!  Guarantee there will not be any icing whatsoever n Dahlonega or Cleveland.  I know when any weather advisory, watch or warning is issued it’s for an entire county.  So just my two cents 😂

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Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now. 

With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're not talking about the little movements that models make, we're talking 1000 mile swings. Yea, they can spot systems, but those "things" end up getting rearranged 25 times before they get here. I'm confident we'll see multiple chances for snow over the next month or so, but when and where are totally unknown right now. But I know I've said that before, and I know you're getting tired of hearing "here it comes", and at some point it's like crying "Wolf".  People start to turn you off when you say "here it comes" but then it doesn't. After a while they no longer trust or even listen to what you have say. 

So far the winter has been nothing as promised and I understand the negativity, frustration, doubt, and despair, I really do. I am not oblivious to what you are feeling. The thing I personally feel is the frustration in my inability to get the snow here. Despite so many things going in our favor, and so many expert opinions from meteorologist confirming what we should be seeing,  the weather systems just haven't come together to setup the favorable pattern that was in most winter forecast, and one that has repeatedly shown up in the models at 10 days out. It's frustrating to see it coming, only to watch it fade away inside 10 days. We just haven't been able to lock anything in yet. 

With all of this back and forth right now, we will probably not "see" our snow until we're within 3-5 days away, or maybe even less, there is just too much inconsistent variation for us to even to pretend to have a clue right now. And that's not just me, that is all meteorologist. No one has any confidence in any solution past 3-5 days at this point, and anything that pops up outside of that is going to be a very low confidence solution at best. So all we can do is continue to track what we can find and temper our enthusiasm if something is spotted outside of 5 days. Winter weather is tough to forecast in the south and requires everything to be lined up just right, and if that doesn't happen, we end up with a cold rain.

Despite what I've written here, I'm still very optimistic about our chances for snow in case you're wondering. And not that my optimism has brought us any snow so far,  I still feel that February holds a lot of promise, so I don't want anyone to think that our chances are going away, they aren't. We just can't see them yet. Believe. 

Either all of this confusion is a good thing, or it's all a nightmare, I'm just not sure which just yet. 

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It seems to me some of the biggest winter weather hasn't really ever shown up on any models until almost the last minute. When we get predictions and alot of discussion for a few days out, nothing really happens. 

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Should we ignore the Thursday 12Z FV3 or the GFS 12Z? Shows some snow hitting a good portion of N. GA. Sorry if all the technical map names are not in the right order. 

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If the pattern is relatively stable, you can pick them out a long way. When things are all over the place with each model run, then no.

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now. 

With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're not talking about the little movements that models make, we're talking 1000 mile swings. Yea, they can spot systems, but those "things" end up getting rearranged 25 times before they get here. I'm confident we'll see multiple chances for snow over the next month or so, but when and where are totally unknown right now. But I know I've said that before, and I know you're getting tired of hearing "here it comes", and at some point it's like crying "Wolf".  People start to turn you off when you say "here it comes" but then it doesn't. After a while they no longer trust or even listen to what you have say. 

So far the winter has been nothing as promised and I understand the negativity, frustration, doubt, and despair, I really do. I am not oblivious to what you are feeling. The thing I personally feel is the frustration in my inability to get the snow here. Despite so many things going in our favor, and so many expert opinions from meteorologist confirming what we should be seeing,  the weather systems just haven't come together to setup the favorable pattern that was in most winter forecast, and one that has repeatedly shown up in the models at 10 days out. It's frustrating to see it coming, only to watch it fade away inside 10 days. We just haven't been able to lock anything in yet. 

With all of this back and forth right now, we will probably not "see" our snow until we're within 3-5 days away, or maybe even less, there is just too much inconsistent variation for us to even to pretend to have a clue right now. And that's not just me, that is all meteorologist. No one has any confidence in any solution past 3-5 days at this point, and anything that pops up outside of that is going to be a very low confidence solution at best. So all we can do is continue to track what we can find and temper our enthusiasm if something is spotted outside of 5 days. Winter weather is tough to forecast in the south and requires everything to be lined up just right, and if that doesn't happen, we end up with a cold rain.

Despite what I've written here, I'm still very optimistic about our chances for snow in case you're wondering. And not that my optimism has brought us any snow so far,  I still feel that February holds a lot of promise, so I don't want anyone to think that our chances are going away, they aren't. We just can't see them yet. Believe. 

Either all of this confusion is a good thing, or it's all a nightmare, I'm just not sure which just yet. 

Although I'm bummed out we haven't seen snow yet (like everyone else here) we will just have to keep watching and hoping for now. Steve you do a fantastic job on here with or without snow in the forcast and we will always be faithful to your site no matter what the weather does. You just keep doing what you do and our snow will come....eventually! 🌨 (I'm an optimist and I think the big one's coming soon!)

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4 minutes ago, John said:

Should we ignore the Thursday 12Z FV3 or the GFS 12Z? Shows some snow hitting a good portion of N. GA. Sorry if all the technical map names are not in the right order. 

You should never ignore any of them unless you know that what they are showing can't possibly happen. The key is understanding "why" they are showing what they show and how that differs from previous runs and other models. Is it plausible? Is it showing a model bias or tendency? 

At this moment, I think any model has just as good of a chance to be right as any other model, so no, don't ignore it.

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I absolutely love being part of this group and will remain optimistic that we will still have at least one snow before winter is over. I see all these memories pop up on my Facebook timeline from last year and several years before that when we had all these snowfall events. I feel a big snow is coming soon! Thanks for all you do Steve!

 

-Michelle Nowak

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We can do this. It may not have panned out but you dont call it a roller coaster for nothing. you are doing great keep it up!

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Thanks guys. Our time is coming. 

6 minutes ago, Justcallmeloops said:

I absolutely love being part of this group and will remain optimistic that we will still have at least one snow before winter is over. I see all these memories pop up on my Facebook timeline from last year and several years before that when we had all these snowfall events. I feel a big snow is coming soon! Thanks for all you do Steve!

 

-Michelle Nowak

 

2 minutes ago, Jeff9702 said:

We can do this. It may not have panned out but you dont call it a roller coaster for nothing. you are doing great keep it up!

 

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I didn't read this Bastardi post from yesterday until a few minutes ago, but it was called, "Musings in the World Of Model Mayhem", and his first sentence was similar to what I posted late yesterday.

Quote

12z GFS makes no sense with itself

One thing that you look for when looking at models, is how consistent they are, not only between the models and model runs, but between other different model family members and things like teleconnections, MJO, etc, etc. If the deterministic model run shows warm, but the teleconnections show cold, and the ensembles show neither scenario, you have a problem, you know something isn't right, and you therefore have a low confidence in the solution. When things are relatively stable, the ensembles, deterministic run, and the teleconnections generally match up and you have higher confidence in the solution. When nothing matches, how do you know what is correct, it anything? 

I think sometimes you have to have faith in what you know to be the normal outcome when viewing certain setups, and believing that the physical processes that make it all happen, will actually make it all happen as they are suppose to. The weather is extremely fluid (literally). Imagine one pebble thrown into a calm pond, and then imagine a hand full. You go from a very ordered and predictable wave pattern to one that appears to be chaotic and unpredictable, and our atmosphere is no different, and right now we have chaos.

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Here's a map from the WPC showing the positions the GFS shows for low pressures and when. The red line is our favored track for good snow probabilities in the winter.

Snap346062317-22.thumb.jpg.83783faf658f37ded3ce02513721ac58.jpg

 

Here are a couple of view of the GFS model run for Sunday/Monday (1st image) and Monday/Tuesday (2nd image). Notice the lack of continuity in the tracks and they shift so drastically in some cases.

vort_500_long-22.thumb.gif.7f1999b19e1d4945fd7e27338122440b.gif

vort_500_long-22-2.thumb.gif.179304ed403141c17783c2cfc56f97a1.gif

 

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Sorry Steve...I had to look at the FV3-GFS it definitely keeps hope alive especially the first part of Feb.  I know it is a long shot but I hope something will pan out for us.

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Oh and you know it is bad when it is snowing not only in the Atlantic but the Gulf too....😯

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I won't stop watching and hoping but with the models literally all over the place and top meteorologists unable to nail anything down I'm just sitting back and waiting.  If all of those guys can't get a grasp on the patterns then there's really nothing else to do but wait and hope.

 

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2 hours ago, Carol said:

It seems to me some of the biggest winter weather hasn't really ever shown up on any models until almost the last minute. When we get predictions and alot of discussion for a few days out, nothing really happens. 

Two of our craziest days for snow and getting kids out of school were kind of spur of the moment events.  I remember one, when the tv weather folks were still on the fence -- a Mom from Iowa came in the school and checked her kids out early.  She said "trust me.  I know snow and that sky is full of snow."  She was right!  That was a night when it got so bad so fast, the school buses had to turn around and take the kids back to school, where they had to spend the night!

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