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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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3 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

Two of our craziest days for snow and getting kids out of school were kind of spur of the moment events.  I remember one, when the tv weather folks were still on the fence -- a Mom from Iowa came in the school and checked her kids out early.  She said "trust me.  I know snow and that sky is full of snow."  She was right!  That was a night when it got so bad so fast, the school buses had to turn around and take the kids back to school, where they had to spend the night!

I just think we'll get a system out of the blue and not modeled at any long distance. 

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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13 hours ago, Preston said:

Interesting CAD scenario forming Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, I haven’t seen much about it other than a post or two from KingOfTheMountains. Confidence is never extraordinarly high for these sort of events but with the cold temperatures we have had in Rabun County the past couple of days (haven’t been above freezing since about 2am yesterday and got down in the teens for over 14 hours in Sky Valley), freezing drizzle/rain could present some travel issues. I’m posting a couple of images, one from the NWS and one from the WPC. (No those colors close to Atlanta are not saying there will be freezing rain, the second image is a probability map of receiving >0.01” of freezing rain) Sorry I had to throw in that disclaimer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that forecast map expand some from the NWS with the guidance from the WPC and they mentioned in the afternoon forecast discussion of a potential winter weather advisory going up for areas along 85 up to the Blue Ridge Escarpment. 

07B49C51-17FC-4BDA-ACD4-193AE09E0900.png

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In Sky Valley they may not have gotten above freezing, but most of the county did. At my house in Rabun gap, roughly 800 ft lower than sky valley, we got really close to 40. Out towards kingwood and screamer area they saw above 40.

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Your confidence in February gives me hope, cause I haven’t got a ton of confidence myself. The weeklies honestly shocked me, looking the way they did, given the tendency of all the other guidance on breaking down the pattern after the start of next month. Exactly what Cranky was referring to, that after Feb. 5 or so we lose the pacific ridge and have to deal with a raging pacific jet again. Telloconnestions support a beat down of the ridge as well. Will still have a cold source to the north this time so it won’t torch, but could be rather average and zonal with brief cold shots. 

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Completely un-scientific and against all the models, I have a very slight "hunch" about tomorrow morning/Thursday morning. I don't expect any big-time event, but I can't help but think it may be further reaching and slightly worse than they're thinking. This just strikes me as one of those "out of the blue" things Ga Weather is so famous for.

Now let's sit back and see how wrong I am 🙂

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20 minutes ago, TheSimpleMan said:

Completely un-scientific and against all the models, I have a very slight "hunch" about tomorrow morning/Thursday morning. I don't expect any big-time event, but I can't help but think it may be further reaching and slightly worse than they're thinking. This just strikes me as one of those "out of the blue" things Ga Weather is so famous for.

Now let's sit back and see how wrong I am 🙂

I was looking at the forecast on wunderground for Wednesday night / Thursday morning too.  It has my low temp at 34, which is lower than it was a couple of days ago.  I was thinking the same thing, that if the rain was slower to come in, or if the temp was colder than expected, it could be a messy commute.

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1 hour ago, kshields8426 said:

In Sky Valley they may not have gotten above freezing, but most of the county did. At my house in Rabun gap, roughly 800 ft lower than sky valley, we got really close to 40. Out towards kingwood and screamer area they saw above 40.

It's amazing even within our county how much difference a little elevation plays, Germany Valley and Sky Valley definitely have their own microclimates. Good to see other folks from Rabun on here! I'm glad the freezing rain threat is diminishing a little, it seems temps overnight will rise enough to prevent any widespread travel difficulties for the Wednesday morning commute. 

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59 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Your confidence in February gives me hope, cause I haven’t got a ton of confidence myself. The weeklies honestly shocked me, looking the way they did, given the tendency of all the other guidance on breaking down the pattern after the start of next month. Exactly what Cranky was referring to, that after Feb. 5 or so we lose the pacific ridge and have to deal with a raging pacific jet again. Telloconnestions support a beat down of the ridge as well. Will still have a cold source to the north this time so it won’t torch, but could be rather average and zonal with brief cold shots. 

I have read multiple mets today saying we should see below average temps into March.

What sucks is having below average to average temps with little to no chance at moisture for such a prolonged period of time. If it is going to stay cold with no chance for winter weather I would rather it warm up sooner than later.

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57 minutes ago, TheSimpleMan said:

Completely un-scientific and against all the models, I have a very slight "hunch" about tomorrow morning/Thursday morning. I don't expect any big-time event, but I can't help but think it may be further reaching and slightly worse than they're thinking. This just strikes me as one of those "out of the blue" things Ga Weather is so famous for.

Now let's sit back and see how wrong I am 🙂

Me too, just because the models keep zeroing in on Thursday for some reason for the past few days now. I know we aren't supposed to take models for gospel but it's weird that I keep seeing snow on the models for Thursday but it's not coming up anywhere else - guess we'll see!

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Both the GFS and FV3 are showing snow for North Georgia exactly 48 hours from now, but it will be light with the cold air chasing. I don't care if no accumulations, just want some flakes flying!

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Widespread snow will not be a concern in Georgia Thursday morning. This will play out similar to the previous system, maybe some token back end flakes, and a dusting at most for the prime NW flow slopes in the mountains. The global models overplay the coverage of snow in a scenario like this because their resolution is too coarse.

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Just now, SlicNic13 said:

Both the GFS and FV3 are showing snow for North Georgia exactly 48 hours from now, but it will be light with the cold air chasing. I don't care if no accumulations, just want some flakes flying!

Yep I just love the peaceful way they fall!!!

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Widespread snow will not be a concern in Georgia Thursday morning. This will play out similar to the previous system, maybe some token back end flakes, and a dusting at most for the prime NW flow slopes in the mountains. The global models overplay the coverage of snow in a scenario like this because their resolution is too coarse.

I bet Brad Nitz of WSBTV on Twitter that it would snow 10 inches in Fannin county on January 24th, 13 days in advance. If even 2 flakes fly, at least I won't be dead wrong lol

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Okay I just notice something and it may mean absolutely nothing however,  if you look at the GFS 00Z = 60hrs, 06Z= 54hrs and 12Z =48hrs they all have the same general look as far as the rain/snow look.  Now I am not one that reads models at all just a regular average person but I then looked back at yesterdays runs for the same time period which yielded the same idea.  I guess my point is that for two days or maybe a little longer there has been consistency of a sort.  Looking back to Sunday's GFS runs they all have something along the same lines just thought that was interesting.  Now, I know squat about the highs and lows but when I see something that seems to be there for several runs or several days well it may actually be something.  Okay carry on all.....

Edited by GaDawg
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7 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

Okay I just notice something and it may mean absolutely nothing however,  if you look at the GFS 00Z = 60hrs, 06Z= 54hrs and 12Z =48hrs they all have the same general look as far as the rain/snow look.  Now I am not one that reads models at all just a regular average person but I then looked back at yesterdays runs for the same time period which yielded the same idea.  I guess my point is that for two days or maybe a little longer there has been consistency of a sort.  Looking back to Sunday's GFS runs they all have something along the same lines just thought that was interesting.  Now, I know squat about the highs and lows but when I see something that seems to be there for several runs or several days well it may actually be something.  Okay carry on all.....

It’s not that the GFS is wrong in what it is seeing, it’s just that it’s resolution is too coarse for a situation like this. So the models build their outputs in a grid, and in the global models (GFS, Euro, etc.) the blocks in this grid are fairly big. So if the model reads snow in a box, it will fill the whole spot on the grid. Thus overplaying the coverage of the snow. We have higher resolution short term models just for this scenario. And if we look at those, we can see things look a lot different. 

F8A40952-3615-44B1-AE78-9ED65A06B8D8.png.d29e55121f88ec49858d1d479a36d2bf.pngScattered flurries/brief light snow showers are likely, but there is no chance at anything more than that.

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8 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

It’s not that the GFS is wrong in what it is seeing, it’s just that it’s resolution is too coarse for a situation like this. So the models build their outputs in a grid, and in the global models (GFS, Euro, etc.) the blocks in this grid are fairly big. So if the model reads snow in a box, it will fill the whole spot on the grid. Thus overplaying the coverage of the snow. We have higher resolution short term models just for this scenario. And if we look at those, we can see things look a lot different. 

F8A40952-3615-44B1-AE78-9ED65A06B8D8.png.d29e55121f88ec49858d1d479a36d2bf.pngScattered flurries/brief light snow showers are likely, but there is no chance at anything more than that.

That was an excellent explanation! 

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28 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

It’s not that the GFS is wrong in what it is seeing, it’s just that it’s resolution is too coarse for a situation like this. So the models build their outputs in a grid, and in the global models (GFS, Euro, etc.) the blocks in this grid are fairly big. So if the model reads snow in a box, it will fill the whole spot on the grid. Thus overplaying the coverage of the snow. We have higher resolution short term models just for this scenario. And if we look at those, we can see things look a lot different. 

F8A40952-3615-44B1-AE78-9ED65A06B8D8.png.d29e55121f88ec49858d1d479a36d2bf.pngScattered flurries/brief light snow showers are likely, but there is no chance at anything more than that.

I agree that was a good explanation.....if you think of graph paper with all those little blocks that is what he is referring to...and it does make sense since it generally would color the whole square verse half...so it leads to a bigger foot print rather than the actual smaller one. 

Edited by GaDawg
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