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NorthGeorgiaWX

Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Interesting look for sure. Not falling for it this time though, anything outside of 5 days I’ll just glance at as potential but nothing more.

Yeah I don’t think I’ve seen the EURO this inconsistent. Maybe we can work in a couple surprises. 

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3 minutes ago, Athens said:

Have y'all seen this madness floating around social media?! One can only dream. 😂

1548184801137115.jpg

This is from a bogus run of the Canadian last week. I hope people are not this clueless for it to snow in Cuba. 

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6 minutes ago, Shannon said:

This is from a bogus run of the Canadian last week. I hope people are not this clueless for it to snow in Cuba. 

Of course... if it ever did happen I'll be doing last minute clean up while I wait on Jesus. 

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9 minutes ago, Shannon said:

This is from a bogus run of the Canadian last week. I hope people are not this clueless for it to snow in Cuba. 

Actually the 00Z run from today, but you are correct, it is bogus.

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Actually the 00Z run from today, but you are correct, it is bogus.

Dang I swore I saw it several days ago as well... this means I need more sleep 

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Actually the 00Z run from today, but you are correct, it is bogus.

Could you imagine if something like that even came close to verifying?  That would actually he deadly. 

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4 minutes ago, Scarinzi said:

Could you imagine if something like that even came close to verifying?  That would actually he deadly. 

But most certainly a dream for some people. 😉 That would be the next little ice age. 

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4 minutes ago, TheSimpleMan said:

5-6 days out from the Sunday/Monday storm. Still looking like a dud?

For now yes. Best chance we’ve had yet. Our energy will likely make it into the gulf but it’s too far south and the northern stream is too far north on the models right now. Without getting some phasing around Texas or Louisiana it will miss us. Models are still having big swings in that time frame so nothing can for sure be ruled out yet.

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The late 29th-30th is looking pretty good right now. Nothing major at the moment, but the Euro has a very sharp cold front coming through with a line of snow along with it.  It wouldn't be more than an inch or two right now, but LOTS of time to change or fade away. There is even more cold coming in right behind this. 🙂 I know, I said don't look that far out, but that's my job. PLEASE don't try this at home. 😜

This is  the liquid precip and the freezing line is the dark blue line. 

-22.thumb.png.d84eecfd973ee7e879a85f30878f4a6a.png

 

This is the temperatures from the frame BEFORE the image above, so yes, in this case, the cold air would be here.

ecmwf_t2m_atl_30-22.thumb.png.acd79e7655b59f21e86b4c1db93f5d97.png

 

These are the temp anomalies.

ecmwf_t2m_anom_atl_30-22.thumb.png.d506d64fa103b46a51d2c5b886e3918c.png

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27 minutes ago, Athens said:

Have y'all seen this madness floating around social media?! One can only dream. 😂

1548184801137115.jpg

So is this just photoshopped or what? Cause I went back and looked, curious to see what could possibly make a model re-create the movie The Day After Tomorrow, and this is not at all what I’m seeing on the 0z CMC

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NWS Update 2:56 pm

Quote

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START TO PUSH 
INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH OUT 
OF THE AREA VERY QUICKLY, SO THE CHANCES AREN'T VERY HIGH. THE BEST 
TIME FRAME TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST LOCATION LOOKS TO BE FAR 
NORTHWEST GEORGIA. CURRENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH 
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHWEST 
GEORGIA, WHERE CURRENT TOTALS ARE AROUND A TENTH OR LESS OF SNOW.
Quote

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, PRECIPITATION WILL BE 
QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE 
AREA. BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN 
FAR NORTH GEORGIA AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT 
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, 
BRINGING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE MORNING 
DISCUSSION, MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN 
ELIMINATING ANY IMPACTFUL WEEKEND PRECIPITATION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE 
COULD MUSTER A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA 
SUNDAY, BUT EVEN THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

OTHERWISE, THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF 
IS CURRENTLY MORE BULLISH WITH QPF AS COMPARED TO THE GFS. THERMAL 
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SNOW POTENTIAL; HOWEVER, THIS 
REMAINS A WEEK OUT, SO THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE DETAILS 
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK 
BEFORE MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

 

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So is this just photoshopped or what? Cause I went back and looked, curious to see what could possibly make a model re-create the movie The Day After Tomorrow, and this is not at all what I’m seeing on the 0z CMC

It actually did show that. Wacky error.

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So is this just photoshopped or what? Cause I went back and looked, curious to see what could possibly make a model re-create the movie The Day After Tomorrow, and this is not at all what I’m seeing on the 0z CMC

I saw it on Weatherbell a few minutes ago, but they aren't there now, it looks like they had data issues and are in the process of fixing them. I do see this now though

856644874_cmc_snow_acc_conus2_3522.thumb.png.419b03fc1f56b7eb9a955079a6d221a5.png

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I saw it on Weatherbell a few minutes ago, but they aren't here now, it looks like they had data issues and are in the process of fixing them. I do see this now though

856644874_cmc_snow_acc_conus2_3522.thumb.png.419b03fc1f56b7eb9a955079a6d221a5.png

Okay that makes sense. Yeah the 12z Canadian joined the Euro on some light snow. But after how good the trends were there for a few days on the weekend storm, only to change to what we’re seeing now, I’m not getting sucked in this time.

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Okay that makes sense. Yeah the 12z Canadian joined the Euro on some light snow. But after how good the trends were there for a few days on the weekend storm, only to change to what we’re seeing now, I’m not getting sucked in this time.

Yeah, trust no one. Or should I say.... model

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I will say, if the coverage is there in the upslope flow tonight, enough to punch through the dry air, there will almost certainly be some light icing up here in the NE corner of the state. Didn’t reach our 40 degree high and have already started back down. 35 with a dewpoint of 1.

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But those low dew points can sure ruin a light precip event by using it all up from evap cooling. I think I'd rather see low 20 DP's with mid 30 temps. 

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

But those low dew points can sure ruin a light precip event by using it all up from evap cooling. I think I'd rather see low 20 DP's with mid 30 temps. 

Yep the coverage will have to be consistent for several of hours to break through. Dewpoints should start to recover a bit on their own just from the southerly flow this evening though. Of course that was already supposed to have begun after lunch but it hasn’t though so who knows.

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23 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So is this just photoshopped or what? Cause I went back and looked, curious to see what could possibly make a model re-create the movie The Day After Tomorrow, and this is not at all what I’m seeing on the 0z CMC

I think it is photoshopped cause I saw it on another site 

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I think the high elevations along the ridges have the best chance for icing. It's some very shallow cold air.

GFS 7 am Thursday morning. You can see shallow layer of freezing around 900-925 mb (which is about 2500 feet), so those areas in elevation would see more freezing rain. You can also see the warm nose above 925 mb  to almost 700 mb. 

 

gfs-22.png

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The only glazing I like to hear about are my doughnuts tomorrow morning. 40 degrees and back peddling already and a dew point of 22 here in Blue Ridge.

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