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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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17 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I think the high elevations along the ridges have the best chance for icing. It's some very shallow cold air.

GFS 7 am Thursday morning. You can see shallow layer of freezing around 900-925 mb (which is about 2500 feet), so those areas in elevation would see more freezing rain. You can also see the warm nose above 925 mb  to almost 700 mb. 

 

gfs-22.png

So 7 AM Thursday would indicate potential for freezing rain on the ridges behind the storm as well?

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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27 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So 7 AM Thursday would indicate potential for freezing rain on the ridges behind the storm as well?

That is 7 am. But according to the GFS, the lower levels are above freezing, so just a narrow band. Of course, it will change too.

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7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Slowly, after say 4-5 AM. Heart of the wedge may never go above 38-42 tomorrow before the front passes and cools things down again.

Yeah I was thinking that. I’m in northern Gwinnett in Buford and I’m already at my low temp for tonight of 37

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I agree with this statement... 
 

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But the GFS is having a devil of a time with this, as its weak physics lead to feedback errors that run amuck, For the period the Euro ensembles have the coldest temps on the planet relative to averages over the US ( day 9)

 

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Bastardi

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What is likely happening is the major ridging backing over Siberia is forcing more cold further west in Canada and the model is having fits handling it over the Rockies. So the trend of the stronger deeper colder shot in the 6-10, and with it, the idea that whatever is coming through the Gulf is forced to turn up the coast early next week, is certainly on the table. The model starts spinning out of control as wild gradients feed back and then in turn force another answer that feeds back . That is not to say I have to be right, it is to say before running off and buying a run, there is plenty to question here, and chances are, answers that don't make sense with themselves are likely not to occur. Once out past a few days, in a pattern like this, constant referencing to past patterns with similar events is needed. I am working off memory now, as the GVT shutdown is really hampering my ability to show you examples to bolster my argument. But one must work with what they have, and I guess be grateful for even having that. But analogs, not models, are what to look at most strongly here. Once past day 10, the GFS is a krap shoot IMO

 

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@Crankywxguy and this really pertains to any storm right now. :classic_angry: That face will have to do for cranky. 😉

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All models for the next few days will both have the storm then not have the storm. Those that had it may lose it. Those that did not have it may gain it. It's a POINTLESS exercise to go run to run or suite to suite at this time. There are NO TRENDS. There are NO CHANGES. The models aren't seeing anything new. 

 

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21 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

Why can the weather not cooperate with what I want it to do????  😂😂😂 oh I’m so frustrated with this winter so far it’s almost the complete opposite of what many people thought was going to happen.  One good snow will make all of this disappointment disappear however!!

Yes, so far the total opposite. 

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43 minutes ago, Sara said:

I really don’t like it when this board is slow!  I was so hoping for snow on my birthday, which is Sunday, but it looks like that’s not gonna happen now. 😭

We all know the feeling.  We have all looked at this time frame AS OUR HEALING BALM and boom, things continue as IS.  EVERY HOPE is being pushed 10 more days plus into the future, with NO REAL GOOD OPPORTUNITY APPEARING.  Just whispers of hope.  FEB has almost appeared and 2 months are gone when we could have possibly received snow....  The thing that bothers me is so many opportunities.   We have the lows, we have the moisture, we have the cold....  WE JUST DON'T HAVE THE TIMING... 

 

But we keep watching!!

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Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data. 🙂

Even picked out the music myself. :classic_biggrin: It's too bad I can't schedule this to upload to my website. 

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

We all know the feeling.  We have all looked at this time frame AS OUR HEALING BALM and boom, things continue as IS.  EVERY HOPE is being pushed 10 more days plus into the future, with NO REAL GOOD OPPORTUNITY APPEARING.  Just whispers of hope.  FEB has almost appeared and 2 months are gone when we could have possibly received snow....  The thing that bothers me is so many opportunities.   We have the lows, we have the moisture, we have the cold....  WE JUST DON'T HAVE THE TIMING... 

 

But we keep watching!!

I have grown up here and the fact that is, here it ain’t over til it’s over. Some of our best snows are in the middle of March. December and January snows are a blessing, but don’t give up hope til the end of March. 😊

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Yea, CERTAINLY not giving up but listening to good advice. :classic_biggrin:

13 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:
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All models for the next few days will both have the storm then not have the storm. Those that had it may lose it. Those that did not have it may gain it. It's a POINTLESS exercise to go run to run or suite to suite at this time. There are NO TRENDS. There are NO CHANGES. The models aren't seeing anything new. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sara said:

I really don’t like it when this board is slow!  I was so hoping for snow on my birthday, which is Sunday, but it looks like that’s not gonna happen now. 😭

Things will pick back up, we need to get past the next several days before we have a better idea though.

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22 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data. 🙂

Even picked out the music myself. :classic_biggrin: It's too bad I can't schedule this to upload to my website. 

 

I like it! Needs more smooth jazz.

 

What application are you using to create that? I would love to play around with something like that. 

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