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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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22 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yes, lack of -NAO has hurt us. The models are showing a dip in the NAO toward the very end of the month. 

geps_nao_12-23.thumb.png.6400af97c2261e6afe94496b4df149e8.pnggefs_nao_12-23.png.97b327e89b5216d1619ba7ca744a8890.pnggfs_nao_bias-23.thumb.png.c9bd353f0cf55ecdbcfd842579f1252f.pngeps_nao_12-23.png.d7adbf31b9a54ee7be7745a1c026303f.png

 

I still question whether we will ever see a classic -NAO or not. Looks to me like for now at least, it's just pre-storm warm surge thumb ridge giving the -NAO signal. Not really a sustained Greenland block setup. And even if we do get the NAO the ensembles have us losing the EPO around the same time. Who knows, maybe that's a good thing if it can wake the STJ back up and get us out of this northern stream dominated pattern. And at least give us a chance of timing out a STJ wave with some cold from the -AO/-NAO shots. Cause the 31st threat is quickly turning out just like this one, Northern stream frontal passage with arctic air behind it. 

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4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'll take any NAO right now, classic or not, weak or strong, east or west based. 😉

Yeah at the very least, something to help slowdown these northern stream pieces of energy and give them a chance to amplify and phase where we need them to. I just want my raging STJ back, I feel better about timing out a storm that just tracks west to east from a long ways out where we can see it coming than trying to play this diving energy out of Canada game. 

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13 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Mind explaining this? To the weather dumb? Lol

He's showing a soundings chart. There's a lot of info there, I think what he is showing is the "Best Guess" precip type of snow PLUS some pretty cold temperatures. Here's a more descriptive look at what all of that is. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/index.html

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I will always be skeptical of global models showing post frontal snow. Moisture almost always drys up faster than they anticipate.

For instance, here’s the GFS from last Thursday for tonight’s cold front. We now know how wrong that was. Widespread post frontal moisture is a unicorn, and I wouldn’t waste my time chasing it. 5C55732C-72EC-4221-BF90-68B56C14F485.thumb.png.fc9f5ef105880733ea784ea001ba73bd.png

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

For instance, here’s the GFS from last Thursday for tonight’s cold front. We now know how wrong that was. Widespread post frontal moisture is a unicorn, and I wouldn’t waste my time chasing it. 5C55732C-72EC-4221-BF90-68B56C14F485.thumb.png.fc9f5ef105880733ea784ea001ba73bd.png

Exactly... not even entertaining that next week 

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NWS Huntsville for next Tuesday 

http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/afd_hun2.html/

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Neither the GFS or ECMWF have shown very
good run to run consistency with the ECMWF pushing a front through
the area Tuesday morning. The GFS on the other hand has the front
arriving during the afternoon hours. The concern is that both models
show very strong cold air advection occurring and the co-location of
this colder air and precip could lead to some possible wintry precip

on Tuesday. The ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the trough and
indicates a stronger push of colder air and would lead to slightly
higher probability of wintry precip. However, the GFS remains a bit
flatter and keeps much of the coldest air to our north, which would
limit winter precip chances. Looking at ensemble data doesn't shed
any better light on what will occur as there is a good deal of spread
in the guidance. So, have tried to error on the uncertain side and
kept PoPs and any wintry precip on the lower side. This will need to
be monitored though. Way too early to talk about any accumulations
if we do see any wintry precip.

 

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May i inject a question i am not understanding.  How can arctic (polar air) be so quickly whipped like a little cur puppy and run --- by what we labeled a Modoki el nino?  We are not getting zonal flow, so i don't understand how it is being scoured SO FAST... Not just here, but above the Mason Dixon Line...  And i need more than a - or plus Nao etc type answer...   Frustrated in Calhoun...  🙂 

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3 minutes ago, RickyD said:

May i inject a question i am not understanding.  How can arctic (polar air) be so quickly whipped like a little cur puppy and run --- by what we labeled a Modoki el nino?  We are not getting zonal flow, so i don't understand how it is being scoured SO FAST... Not just here, but above the Mason Dixon Line...  And i need more than a - or plus Nao etc type answer...   Frustrated in Calhoun...  🙂 

It’s cause the low tracks are so far north I believe. That puts basically the entire east coast in the warm southerly flow out front  of these storms.

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

It’s cause the low tracks are so far north I believe. That puts basically the entire east coast in the warm southerly flow out front  of these storms.

But the air before the lows are cold at times, even though it is pulling warm moist air off the gulf.  I have seen at other times the cold won out for the most part because it is hard to warm from a socked in 19 degrees

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46 minutes ago, RickyD said:

But the air before the lows are cold at times, even though it is pulling warm moist air off the gulf.  I have seen at other times the cold won out for the most part because it is hard to warm from a socked in 19 degrees

Without big high pressures to the North the cold can never win out. We’ve got a warm front all the way up to southern Canada with today’s storm. Pre-frontal warmth will always win out one way or another. If you’ve got cold air damming, the warm sector would still mess with your P-types. Ideally we need a low track south of us with 2 or more high pressures bridging over the top to keep the warm front at bay. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Without big high pressures to the North the cold can never win out. We’ve got a warm front all the way up to southern Canada with today’s storm. Pre-frontal warmth will always win out one way or another. If you’ve got cold air damming, the warm sector would still mess with your P-types. Ideally we need a low track south of us with 2 or more high pressures bridging over the top to keep the warm front at bay. 

A good ole banana high pressure over top

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