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NorthGeorgiaWX

Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The MJO forecast hasn't been very skillful lately, and Bastardi made a blog post about that yesterday. If you go to the page that he uses (which I can happily say is my page! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php ) , scroll down and you'll find this image. This is "generally" what happens when the MJO goes into those phase during DJF. However, when there is a Modoki El Nino, it changes a little bit. But we normally want to see a 8-1-2 rotation in the winter. The good part about what you see in the "All Model Mean" (image Michael posted) is that it is in a null state with little to no influence. 

Snap346062253.thumb.jpg.7d06de1867fa62c0778fdce03657cbe3.jpg

Okay, I think we have so much else going our way it doesn’t matter much but got curious nonetheless. All I knew really was that we tend to want phase 8, 1, or 2. I wasn’t sure the significance, if any, of it moving into the circle, or the magnitude when it is in a particular phase. For instance if it re-emerging into phase 4-5 but weak is a lot different from the high magnitude phase 5 we saw in December. 

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It looks like (again, assuming the models are correct) that it may weakly enter an unfavorable phase, but there are stronger forces at work at the moment that should overwhelm a very weak MJO signal. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It looks like (again, assuming the models are correct) that it may weakly enter an unfavorable phase, but there are stronger forces at work at the moment that should overwhelm a very weak MJO signal. 

I hope! It would be very disappointing to waste this time period and cold air.

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Here's the GFS ensemble mean pressure anomalies 7 days from now. Notice the higher pressures over Australia. 

gefs_z500a_shwpac_29-13.thumb.png.855ce2bf530edbd0f30804e0726b4cde.png

 

Now look at where the high pressures are located in this image... Phase 8. So the GFS MJO and the GFS ensembles aren't agreeing. 

Snap346062255.thumb.jpg.031689199d6ad95075d764ae43d9c0cc.jpg

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's the GFS ensemble mean pressure anomalies 7 days from now. Notice the higher pressures over Australia. 

gefs_z500a_shwpac_29-13.thumb.png.855ce2bf530edbd0f30804e0726b4cde.png

 

Now look at where the high pressures are located in this image... Phase 8. So the GFS MJO and the GFS ensembles aren't agreeing. 

Snap346062255.thumb.jpg.031689199d6ad95075d764ae43d9c0cc.jpg

 

 

Nice! I know that here in the south that even in a favorable pattern, there are more ways to go wrong than right. So I’m just looking for any flies in the ointment and then subsequently trying to smash them lol

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Just now, Shannon said:

I hope! It would be very disappointing to waste this time period and cold air.

If it were a high amplitude signal it would be different. In that circle it's affects are null. 

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The GFS precipitation model is showing snow on the 20th and again around the 24th....with rain in between. I can't wait! Even if just 1 of them come true, I'll be happy!

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14 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

The GFS precipitation model is showing snow on the 20th and again around the 24th....with rain in between. I can't wait! Even if just 1 of them come true, I'll be happy!

Neither of those are likely to work out as modeled, but things are guaranteed to change as the models are going to be all over the place. In fact how the 2nd storm is modeled is basically impossible with a nearly 1050 high in the North East and the low running right into it. I’m as confident as can be in the 2nd storm at this lead time. Really think we’ve got a shot with that one based on timing after the initial cold push alone.

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Neither of those are likely to work out as modeled, but things are guaranteed to change as the models are going to be all over the place. In fact how the 2nd storm is modeled is basically impossible with a nearly 1050 high in the North East and the low running right into it. I’m as confident as can be in the 2nd storm at this lead time. Really think we’ve got a shot with that one based on timing after the initial cold push alone.

My thoughts as well. 

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17 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Neither of those are likely to work out as modeled, but things are guaranteed to change as the models are going to be all over the place. In fact how the 2nd storm is modeled is basically impossible with a nearly 1050 high in the North East and the low running right into it. I’m as confident as can be in the 2nd storm at this lead time. Really think we’ve got a shot with that one based on timing after the initial cold push alone.

Indeed. FV3 has been more interesting. But being that it's in the experimental phase I'm not sure how great it is at this point.

Edited by Athens

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1 minute ago, Wendy4 said:

Thoughts?

IMG_20190113_170251.jpg

Well initially this is a lot of snow depicted with a lot of moving parts that are no where near certain yet. This map will change a lot over time. However, developing a snow pack north of us is important. It will act a a refrigerator and allow cold air to come south and struggle to modify which helps us with a active southern jet stream right now. 

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Just now, Athens said:

Indeed. FV3 has been more interesting. But being that it's in the experimental phase I'm not sure how great it is at this point?

Yeah it’s been interesting and showing EXTREMELY cold temps that are not likely but ultimately a sign that it’s gonna get cold!

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4 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

Thoughts?

IMG_20190113_170251.jpg

Just keep sliding... ❄️ Sliding down south. 🤣

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2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Yeah it’s been interesting and showing EXTREMELY cold temps that are not likely but ultimately a sign that it’s gonna get cold!

Yeah, I'm more interested in the storm tracks it has. Some similar to the (rain) storms we've already seen... It's nearly perfect for us. All and all I'm excited because there could be some major players if the cold is there to back it.

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With this winter already being abnormally wet and a couple storms overproducing I can only hope this pattern change doesn't deter that too much.

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41 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

Thoughts?

IMG_20190113_170251.jpg

So this is the GEFS ensemble mean. So it takes the operational, control, and 20 other members and changes the initial conditions in each one and lets them run. This is showing the average snowfall of all of those together between now and the 28th. It at least shows that the models are hinting at snow in the next 2 weeks. But to get a better feel, you’d need to see each individual member and see whether there’s good agreement in the ensembles or if just 1 or 2 are skewing the data. As we go forward if the ensembles zero in on a particular event, then you’ll see these means go up. At this lead time 2 inch plus means in all of North GA is a wonderful sight to see.

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43 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Well initially this is a lot of snow depicted with a lot of moving parts that are no where near certain yet. This map will change a lot over time. However, developing a snow pack north of us is important. It will act a a refrigerator and allow cold air to come south and struggle to modify which helps us with a active southern jet stream right now. 

This could be a very important factor that you’re mentioning. Even if we miss on the 20th storm, which I think is possible, if it can lay down a heavy snowpack across the upper Ohio valley and North East then it will help us all the more in storms that follow. If that’s the case and there’s a 1040+ high in the NE on the 2nd storm pumping air directly off that snow pack it could give us that degree or two we always seem to need.

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17 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

Thoughts?

IMG_20190113_170251.jpg

Those are the ensembles, so smoothed out. If you look at individual ensemble members, you'll see the amounts vary widely.

Again, I use Blairsville as the example.

KDZJ_2019011312_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.b06cc7bf9fd5a7b9c6052b072484b7cc.png

 

So right now, I'm really liking our chances to see some snow.

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Looks like everyone but Florida has a chance of snow ❄️ 

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11 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Those are the ensembles, so smoothed out. If you look at individual ensemble members, you'll see the amounts vary widely.

Again, I use Blairsville as the example.

KDZJ_2019011312_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.b06cc7bf9fd5a7b9c6052b072484b7cc.png

 

So right now, I'm really liking our chances to see some snow.

Looks like those have went up just from the last time you posted the Blairsville one.

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NWS Atlanta 6:30 pm Sunday

Quote

Next significant system will be for the weekend with models going
back and forth as to how much post frontal precip will be available
as much colder air rushes in. Have confined a rain/snow mix to the
higher elevations for now but will need to monitor for potential for
this to spread further south on the west side of the state in
subsequent model runs.

 

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