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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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15 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Not gonna call just 1-2 runs a trend but, that is definitely a step in the right direction.

Baby step.... baby steps..... with the hope that the baby falls off the step and tumbles all the way down into the cold white stuff.

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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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15 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

 

I don’t think this weekends system works out. Looks like we are hoping for wrap around which isn’t the best for us. Very unfortunate that we are washing a lot of moisture with it! Maybe next week tho!

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The first system in a pattern change rarely works out, simply because the pattern is not fully in place. I do expect the following systems to work out better though. 

Yeah I was thinking of it more as setting the stage!

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48 minutes ago, Jeff9702 said:

Man talk about a Monday for ya. I checked my weather and saw snow for the weekend and it said watching for potential winter storm. Thats when I realized it was running for Washington DC and not Buford GA......

I did something like that yesterday. I was looking at the weather forecast on my website, and forgot I changed the selection to Griffin instead of Dacula. I was wondering why the NWS missed my forecast so bad. 🙂 Then I realized... 

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I want you to remember that there is only one winter with a hyper MJO in a weak Modoki and that is 1978. You are treading on rare ground and from what I see this is trying to go to the kind of extreme ( I don't know if it gets all the way to it) that we saw that winter

Again I may be delusional but we shall see.

 

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Bastardi a minute ago

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To me it makes sense to look for a trough to split coming to the east coast this weekend and with arctic air pouring in, even if a center is coming up, a new low should develop further south on the front with snow and ice to the west of the track which may be off the mid Atlantic or Carolinas

 

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5 minutes ago, matt40 said:

Heard the latest few runs of EURO and GFS have taken away all snow chances for next week.  Do you see the same trends?

So over this cold rain.

DO NOT watch the operational model runs. Now, this upcoming weekend will likely not be a winter weather event for us, it's after that when our chances start.

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