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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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20 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

Looks like 2in or so for my area. I’ll take it... I just want the serenity of watching it fall ... 

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Not at all a non event, but the trend is clear since yesterday’s 12z run to go lighter and lighter on totals. Hopefully the trend stops soon, or even better comes back our way some. 

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Hypothetical : if it does snow and accumulates to an inch - or more, how long will it stick around? Are we supposed to see the cold stick around or by noon Wednesday will it all melt?

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1 minute ago, JenRay said:

Hypothetical : if it does snow and accumulates to an inch - or more, how long will it stick around? Are we supposed to see the cold stick around or by noon Wednesday will it all melt?

It should last a decent amount of time, especially for only a 1 inch snow. But even at very cold temps, in the sun it’ll disappear rather quickly. Shade could hold on to it for a number of days though.

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6 minutes ago, RickyD said:

GFS 12z shows a whopper of a storm now Feb 6 for us

Unfortunately it is cold chasing moisture 

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5 minutes ago, RickyD said:

GFS 12z shows a whopper of a storm now Feb 6 for us

Post frontal though, Katafront at that. Likely wouldn’t work out well. Way too far out to speculate much anyway though. Sucks that we can’t get anything to come up out of the gulf right now.... Hints of it around the 1st-2nd but even that is looking less and less likely.

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Post frontal though, Katafront at that. Likely wouldn’t work out well. Way too far out to speculate much anyway though. Sucks that we can’t get anything to come up out of the gulf right now.... Hints of it around the 1st-2nd but even that is looking less and less likely.

I am not very knowledgeable and depend on you guys, but it looks to me it would not take much for that low to come at us from the South.  Maybe i am just looking at the setup wrong?

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2 minutes ago, RickyD said:

I am not very knowledgeable and depend on you guys, but it looks to me it would not take much for that low to come at us from the South.  Maybe i am just looking at the setup wrong?

Definitely possible there. Would need a stout high pressure over the NE and above the storm over the central plains to help force it to stay south. 

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The 12km NAM is interesting. I don’t trust it but it develops a low rapidly. It also gets real warm ahead of the front and then drops the temp around 20 degrees in a matter of 3 hours. 

Edited by Shannon

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NWS Huntsville

http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/afd_hun2.html/

Quote

Due to the colder pattern, much of the vertical profile is below
freezing. The exception is from about 850mb down to the surface
as precip initially starts. The strength of the cold front combined
with the strong vertical motions suggest a rapid cooling of
temperatures Monday night into Tuesday. We should see an initial
band of light rain along the leading edge of the front. However,
the greatest forcing will occur post-frontal and closer to the 09-12z
timeframe. Top-down and sounding analysis indicate that we will have
a correlation of strong vertical lift in the dendritic growth zone.
This could translate into some stronger snowfall rates maybe upwards
of 2-4 in/hr with any possible mesoscale banding. With a potential
window of maybe 1-3 hours of these higher snowfall rates we are
starting to nudge up snowfall amounts. GEFS plumes and EPS ensemble
members are all starting to trend upwards with snowfall amounts as
well. So, have gone that route and nudged snow amounts higher with
much of the area seeing at least 1 inch of snow and most likely
between 1.5 to 2 inches. Due to the lingering uncertainty in the
timing and potential for banding it's completely possible that we
could see upwards of 3-4 inches but have kept values below that for
now. Want to see another model run or two before going any higher
than 2.5 inches.


We are too far out at this time to issue any type of winter products
but will start to mention the potential for higher snow amounts in
the HWO. The biggest concern is that these more intense snowfall
rates would occur right as the morning commute would be starting.

Once the snow ends, drier air filtering in may allow for just a
subtle rise in afternoon temps Tuesday out west but even with that
occurring, highs Tuesday will likely remain at or below freezing.
Strong CAA behind this front will send overnight lows Tuesday night
into the teens and with slight northerly breezes continuing wind
chills Wednesday morning could drop into the single digits.

 

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NWS Atlanta

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.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Main focus for the long term is the arctic front that will move
across the CWA Tuesday. Models are coming more in line with timing
and amount of QPF/Snow amounts. The arctic front will move into
northwest GA by Tuesday morning, into the ATL area by 18Z and out
of the CWA by 00Z. Most of the moisture will be ahead of the
front. A mix of rain/snow will move into northwest GA late Monday
night/early Tuesday and then spread across the rest of north GA
Tuesday morning. As the moisture pushes into central GA it should
be all rain. Snow fall amounts will vary from 3-6 inches in the
higher elevations of the mountains to less than a half inch across
the rest of north GA. This is still on day 4 so there is still

some uncertainty and changes in snow amounts can be expected. After
this system it will remain unseasonably cold but dry for the most
part for the remainder of the long term.
 

 

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NWS Morristown

Quote

As mentioned previously, the upper-level pattern will feature a
strong jet streak rounding the base of the deep trough axis.  As a
result, divergence will increase which will aid in lift across the
region.  Deep moisture will be in place immediately along and behind
the surface front.  Widespread precipitation will develop as a
result of the increased divergence and deep moisture.  Model cross
sections still show deep lift associated with the favorable dynamics
aloft and strong positive omega values extending through the low and
mid levels of the atmosphere.  Further, the strong omega values can
be attributed to the strength of vorticity advection in the mid
levels.  2-D plane and cross sections show very strong frontogenesis
values along the Arctic front with a steeply sloped frontal zone
extending from the surface to 500mb.  It will be a combination of
upper level dynamics, and low-mid level frontogenesis that will lead
to widespread and at times, heavy precipitation. Cold air will
quickly filter in behind the front with strong CAA. 1000-500mb
thickness values crash to as low as 520-530 dam with 850mb
temperatures as low as -5 to -15 degree C during the time of the
precipitation.   Precipitation will likely start out as liquid rain
as the lower troposphere will likely remain above freezing briefly.
However, this will not last long as rain will quickly turn to snow
with very strong CAA in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Snow amounts are still difficult to pinpoint this far out with some
model differences still apparent.  However, with the degree of
moisture and omega values in the -12 to -18 degree C layer,
dendritic growth will become maximized between 12 to 18Z Tuesday.
The strength of dynamics aloft in combination with strong low-level
frontogenesis forcing supports moderate to heavy precipitation
falling as well.  The cold air in place will mean that SLR's will
likely be higher than climatology (12:1 to 15:1).  The limited
factor is the window of precipitation will be short lived.  Models
are all in decent agreement in regards to snow amounts.  1-3 inches
of snowfall looks likely for the majority of the area with higher
amounts up to 4 inches in the higher terrain.  It is important to
realize that regardless of specific amounts, impacts will be similar
with the cold air moving in.  Icy and hazardous travel may become an
issue across the entire area Tuesday.


Precipitation will quickly come to an end Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to fall Tuesday night.  With 850mb
temperatures in -10 to -15 degree C range, minimum temperatures will
likely fall into the teens to single digits.  If we do end up with
accumulating snow on the ground, then expect surface temperatures to
be even colder then what guidance is advertising.  Wind chills could
be below 0 Tuesday night as high pressure quickly builds to the
west.  The higher terrain could see wind chills as low as -15 at
times.  Global models are both suggesting additional chances of snow
showers Wednesday along the sharp Arctic front.  How far south this
band of snow ends up is still in question. Temperatures on Wednesday
and Wednesday night will continue to be below average. Strong high
pressure will meander through the Ohio valley Thursday before winds
begin to back toward the southwest ahead of a developing low
pressure system across the Plains.  A slight warming trend will be
possible Friday and into the weekend.

 

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NWS Greenville SC

Quote

he warm sector
air mass is expected to be too warm for anything but rain, except in
the high elevations of the NC mtns Monday night/Tue morning.
However, guidance strongly agrees that arctic air will surge into
the area rapidly before moisture and forcing abate, which would
force a changeover to snow across the mtn valleys for at least a
couple of hours before the precip ends. Meanwhile, rapid downslope
drying and compressional warming (which will take some of the edge
off the intense cold advection) will leave only minimal opportunity
for a transition to snow in the Piedmont and foothills.

Considering the very quick translation of the frontal band across
the area, liquid equiv qpf is expected to be marginal at best for
heavy snowfall criteria, except across the high elevations (i.e.,
above ~3500 ft) and across the northeast GA mtn zones (where
criteria is only two inches/12 hours), but this appears as if it
will be a solid advisory-level event across most of our mtn
zones.

 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here we go for now

StormTotalSnowWeb-26.thumb.png.385077e33098ae9fc4e75b9eef1a944d.png

snowProbGE01-26.thumb.png.d1349ed8763be0a8b535a774b8231ae6.png

I love living life on the edge anyway 😂

 

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