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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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Okay, I have absolutely no scientific/meteorological reasons to support this, but, going by experience, when the NWS forcasts low amounts of snow, we get much much more ( I generally think back to 2009,10,11. Athens would get predicted to get next to nothing and two of those years we got 6+ inches in my backyard). This might just be wishful thinking, but them forcasting low amounts makes me MORE optimistic!

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Definitely liked the look on the NAM. The temp crash is going to be fun to watch.

Yeah that NAM run was interesting 

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We'll see how the 12k NAM will compare to the 3km NAM. I know which one should be better but we'll see. Here are both models at the same time which is 1 am Tuesday. Until the next run, this is as far as the 3km NAM goes. You can already see a difference.

12km NAM 

nam_3hr_snow_acc_atl_21-26.thumb.png.e97330c8097defe602f06182e929aa06.png

 

3km NAM

hires_snow_atl_61-26.png.b001ec41402fa729083822422d0e5150.png

 

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NWS Birmingham

Quote

Looking at the latest guidance this afternoon, the GFS has trended
more amplified since yesterday bringing it more line with other
guidance, with stronger height falls and the left-exit region of an
upper jet streak indicating more synoptic ascent. So it has trended
upward on snowfall amounts but remains a couple hours faster with
the wave. The ECMWF did come down a little bit with QPF in the cool
sector with some QPF farther south robbing the moisture farther
north, which is something to watch but not ready to buy into that

yet. Run to run model commentary aside, trends in the model
consensus and ensembles support nudging snowfall accumulations in
our forecast up a bit, and also extending accumulations further to
the south. This results in accumulations in the 1-2 inch range
roughly along and north of I-20, around an inch down to a Demopolis
to Jemison to Wedowee line, and accumulations of a quarter to half
inch as far south as Selma to Alexander City. This lines up well
with the European ensemble mean but is a bit above the GEFS and SREF
ensemble means. Some three inch amounts are possible along/north of
I-20 due to a quick burst of strong lift in a saturated DGZ, but
confidence in placement of heavier bands is too low to include in

the forecast at this time. Will also have to watch for any waves of
low pressure along the front. It's still too early for any
advisories/watches at this time. Temperatures along the I-85
corridor still look too warm for accumulation at this time, but
trends will need to watched closely.

Regardless of exact snowfall accumulations, the potential for
relatively high travel impacts is certainly there with temperatures
falling into the 20s as the snow falls and timing of the snow being
during the morning commute along the I-20 corridor. Temperatures
across the northern counties will stay near or just below freezing
Tuesday afternoon.
 

 

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Wait... i didn't answer the question did I? 🙂 And right now, I'm just not sure. 🙂

Okay, well at least I’m not the only one lol. I suppose clouding up really early could help limit day time heating. 

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45 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Definitely liked the look on the NAM. The temp crash is going to be fun to watch.

Yep that’s what I noted earlier. Borederline a flash freeze. 20 plus degrees in a matter of couple hours 

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16 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Okay, well at least I’m not the only one lol. I suppose clouding up really early could help limit day time heating. 

Yea, things like cloud cover etc would make a difference, but I was trying to figure out what that  might mean in terms of frozen precip.

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yea, things like cloud cover etc would make a difference, but I was trying to figure out what that  might mean in terms of frozen precip.

We also need to keep in mind that the low going up the east coast now has an impact on our system. I would assume it would slow it down. 

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Nothing scientific here.....just me saying yes it will snow in Gwinnett I just know it...:)

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Can someone do a sounding for me for Calhoun showing amounts i might get? So i can see what the mean is

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So looking at the 18z Euro products, is the reason for the continued lowering of snow totals it drying out so quickly and showing the bulk of the precip falling before the front?

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4 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Can someone do a sounding for me for Calhoun showing amounts i might get? So i can see what the mean is

 

nam_2019012618_072_34.48--84.98.png

sn10_acc.us_se.png

Edited by SnellvilleWeather
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14 minutes ago, SnellvilleWeather said:

 

nam_2019012618_072_34.48--84.98.png

sn10_acc.us_se.png

Ha ha. Literally 20 miles from me. We'll see on Tuesday.

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15 minutes ago, SnellvilleWeather said:

 

nam_2019012618_072_34.48--84.98.png

sn10_acc.us_se.png

What does that top thing even mean!?

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