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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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4 minutes ago, JenRay said:

What does that top thing even mean!?

It gives a comprehensive look at the atmosphere from the ground up. Very helpful in forecasting P-types and severe weather.

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Well there is finally a sounding showing snow for my little area.  Not going to buy it just yet.  To much could go wrong and then I am heart broken again.  Maintaining that I do not believe it will snow here.  

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2 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

Well there is finally a sounding showing snow for my little area.  Not going to buy it just yet.  To much could go wrong and then I am heart broken again.  Maintaining that I do not believe it will snow here.  

You do not want to play the ace card to early!.

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I am staying my on my tactic.  I do not believe it will snow.  Now you can read between the lines.  If I wanted snow it will not come. 

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The National Weather Service out of Greenville seems pretty confident for us in Sky Valley. I’m not sure we will get 4” from looking at the models but I would take it.

9D56EEE2-0AFA-4B04-BC54-6D6141ADBAE1.png

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Steve, 

Do you think we have another chance of snow, maybe even a  better chance later?

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Crazy how quiet it gets here when there is true snow potential! Maybe it is because today is saturday?

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29 minutes ago, JenRay said:

Crazy how quiet it gets here when there is true snow potential! Maybe it is because today is saturday?

Wait till we get within a few hours of the event. Things start to get crazy quick around here. 

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1 hour ago, Wendy4 said:

Steve, 

Do you think we have another chance of snow, maybe even a  better chance later?

I do and I do.

 

45 minutes ago, JenRay said:

Crazy how quiet it gets here when there is true snow potential! Maybe it is because today is saturday?

I think people are gun shy now. 🙂  One more day to firm things up a little, and everyone will start getting excited. 

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Nothing new right now. It will be morning before we have any model runs to talk about. GFS runs around 11:30 and the Euro at 1: 40 am

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Nothing new right now. It will be morning before we have any model runs to talk about. GFS runs around 11:30 and the Euro at 1: 40 am

The NAM is about to run 

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Did anyone see Firsthand weather's newest article??? He's certainly the most bullish as far as forcasts go (Athens getting 2-5 inches???) but hey I'd absolutely love it 🤣

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1 hour ago, JenRay said:

Crazy how quiet it gets here when there is true snow potential! Maybe it is because today is saturday?

Or we could be nervous the snow will get shy and run off if we talk about it. Dont wanna jinx us!

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm seeing more convective development on this run.

Old 51 hour run

nam_ref_east_20-26.thumb.png.5cf9585146169dd623ec7dd6feca8a06.png

 

Current 51 hour run

nam_ref_east_18-26.thumb.png.7daec7cb62e8f689fb009b681fc8ad6e.png

Noticed that as well..: curse and a blessing I think Steve 

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2 hours ago, Preston said:

The National Weather Service out of Greenville seems pretty confident for us in Sky Valley. I’m not sure we will get 4” from looking at the models but I would take it.

9D56EEE2-0AFA-4B04-BC54-6D6141ADBAE1.png

Yeah I was surprised to see their expected totals come out that high. Area wide the NWS seems fairly bullish right now. I will say I went through some sounding data from the 18z NAM over Rabun County, and although the map is showing rain at the start, the sounding is a snow sounding for parts of the county. The column above is very cold and good rates at the start could drive the surface temp down faster and make the changeover very quick. 

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26 minutes ago, Rioderreiser said:

Did anyone see Firsthand weather's newest article??? He's certainly the most bullish as far as forcasts go (Athens getting 2-5 inches???) but hey I'd absolutely love it 🤣

That’s VERY aggressive 

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