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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm seeing more convective development on this run.

Old 51 hour run

nam_ref_east_20-26.thumb.png.5cf9585146169dd623ec7dd6feca8a06.png

 

Current 51 hour run

nam_ref_east_18-26.thumb.png.7daec7cb62e8f689fb009b681fc8ad6e.png

Would be nice to see some convective banding snowfall. I think any increase in moisture is a good thing, cause for most of us moisture will be our limiting factor. So the wetter the better. As long as it keeps a mostly positive tilt we won't have to worry about convection robbing moisture, neutral to negative and it's a potential problem. 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This run is faster

It is. Has more convective burst but less snow so meaning not as cold??

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This run totals. We'll see what the NAM 3km shows shortly

NOT A FORECAST

nam_3hr_snow_acc_atl_25-26.thumb.png.d1e7a500406c5a9051f413f63717b0a9.png

Little beefier for Georgia 

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Rates and ratios could make this a heck of an event for NW GA and the western mountain counties. I remain skeptical for over here where I am, downsloping will likely be a killer. Will be right on the line of nothing and an inch or two I think. NAM is not cooling things down fast enough, moisture is being shown gone before it gets below freezing over here. My only hope is that heavy enough rates will allow for some top down cooling.

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

WPC snow probabilities

Snap346062361-26.thumb.jpg.1ce96ada7c8c133952850f030b2ebbc1.jpg

Snap346062362-26.thumb.jpg.f386fc10fef234c80ed312c728d2f7c2.jpg

So you are saying there is a chance 😇

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Overnight runs will be very interesting. We may have a nice snow storm in the morning. 🙂

I just hope it includes more of us in the eastern part of the state. 🤞🏼

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

nam_3hr_snow_acc_atl_21-26.thumb.png.96a64a0fdb459483a69382480c2a73a1.png

hires_snow_atl_61-26-2.png.47031c943a72bbddbbca6daa0269a599.png

Looks like it's picking up the convective nature better. Places who score the heavy bands could really pile it on quick. I think anywhere from Blairesville over towards Ellijay could easily score 6 inches because of high ratios and convective rates with upslope.

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Steve, it looks to me like the banding is very clearly running in a SW to NE direction which would indicate potential for upslope in the NE as well. So what wins out, the banding running SW to NE or the front diving NW to SE? One suggests upslope, and the other downsloping so I'm unsure. I'm trying so hard to try and find a way to be more confident in measurable snows for the eastern third of the state lolnam3km_asnow_seus_61.thumb.png.05095b918f8971d5e77ff648d42413a4.png

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Steve, it looks to me like the banding is very clearly running in a SW to NE direction which would indicate potential for upslope in the NE as well. So what wins out, the banding running SW to NE or the front diving NW to SE? One suggests upslope, and the other downsloping so I'm unsure. I'm trying so hard to try and find a way to be more confident in measurable snows for the eastern third of the state lolnam3km_asnow_seus_61.thumb.png.05095b918f8971d5e77ff648d42413a4.png

I see your arguement as well. Upslope could help the whole state because of the topography that our state offers from SW to NE. This is a tough one. Remind me.. is this similar to a event we had last January?

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17 minutes ago, Athens said:

I just hope it includes more of us in the eastern part of the state. 🤞🏼

Yea I’m rite above you in Royston. I’m hopeful  to see some snow.  Looks like we have a warm nose sitting on top of us. 

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1 minute ago, Shannon said:

I see your arguement as well. Upslope could help the whole state because of the topography that our state offers from SW to NE. This is a tough one. Remind me.. is this similar to a event we had last January?

I've been trying to think back on that light event from last year as well but can't remember much about it.

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I've been trying to think back on that light event from last year as well but can't remember much about it.

Me too. However I remember getting more than predicted haha 

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14 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I've been trying to think back on that light event from last year as well but can't remember much about it.

I can remember that storm bc it was the only snow we got last year. We picked up an inch since it was very cold with not much moisture to work with. Added screenshot that I had saved. 😂

e408a84d-4f7a-4a2a-8885-1d8ed1c8b3fe.jpg

Screenshot_Facebook_20180117-083247.jpg

Edited by Athens
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2 minutes ago, Athens said:

I can remember that storm bc it was the only snow we got last year. We picked up an inch since it was very cold with not much moisture to work with. 

e408a84d-4f7a-4a2a-8885-1d8ed1c8b3fe.jpg

Yeah I know it was a very moisture starved system. I wish NWS Atlanta had done a write up on this on. It was definitely a frontal system but I believe it was weaker than the one coming up. This was the surface map for that day. Archived Surface Analysis

Am looking at the archived radar right now and precip was very sparse over N GA, so antecedent conditions were likely very dry.

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah I know it was a very moisture starved system. I wish NWS Atlanta had done a write up on this on. It was definitely a frontal system but I believe it was weaker than the one coming up. This was the surface map for that day. Archived Surface Analysis

Am looking at the archived radar right now and precip was very sparse over N GA, so antecedent conditions were likely very dry.

Birmingham did one. So this system is looking to have a bit more potential?

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_01162018

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I know Steve normally gives this to us a little better presented, but Some really good words out Atlanta NWS.... 

Screenshot_20190126-230208_Weather.jpg

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