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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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2 minutes ago, Athens said:

Birmingham did one. So this system is looking to have a bit more potential?

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_01162018

Idk honestly. I think it will be an interesting case study to compare these 2 events. Antecedent conditions look to be a bit better, cooler and not as dry. But timing was better for that storm, being overnight for us. Also duration looked longer for that event. This front is moving very fast, may only see 6 hrs of precip but it will be more intense. I love storms like this that we don't get often, cause there is a lot to learn from it and file away for the next time there's a similar look

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1 minute ago, Mountainbuck said:

Less than half an inch!?!?

Still time for these amounts to increase and given some of the favorable wording still a little bit out, I'm inclined to believe it's going to more favorable for everyone. I guess I misspoke given my optimism as I'm in Blue Ridge.

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3 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

Less than half an inch!?!?

They worded that a bit poorly. They're simply saying that will be the range of snowfall across the region. The way they worded it, it looks like they're saying everyone outside the mountains with less than a half inch.

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Idk honestly. I think it will be an interesting case study to compare these 2 events. Antecedent conditions look to be a bit better, cooler and not as dry. But timing was better for that storm, being overnight for us. Also duration looked longer for that event. This front is moving very fast, may only see 6 hrs of precip but it will be more intense. I love storms like this that we don't get often, cause there is a lot to learn from it and file away for the next time there's a similar look

So true. I'm all for surprises! ūüėÜūüėĀ

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Just now, SlicNic13 said:

Still time for these amounts to increase and given some of the favorable wording still a little bit out, I'm inclined to believe it's going to more favorable for everyone. I guess I misspoke given my optimism as I'm in Blue Ridge.

You are sitting in the perfect spot in my opinion. The potential rates with banding plus upslope there, combined with rising ratios as the storm progresses should make it a quick dump in that area. If anyone is going to push 4-6 out of this storm, I think it will be in your area in those further west mountain counties, as opposed to over my way which normally sees the highest totals. But we don't normally see systems like this.

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At this rate I’ll take a dusting....... anything more is just gravy 

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21 minutes ago, SlicNic13 said:

I know Steve normally gives this to us a little better presented, but Some really good words out Atlanta NWS.... 

Screenshot_20190126-230208_Weather.jpg

 

16 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Idk honestly. I think it will be an interesting case study to compare these 2 events. Antecedent conditions look to be a bit better, cooler and not as dry. But timing was better for that storm, being overnight for us. Also duration looked longer for that event. This front is moving very fast, may only see 6 hrs of precip but it will be more intense. I love storms like this that we don't get often, cause there is a lot to learn from it and file away for the next time there's a similar look


At the moment I'm more looking at functional impacts, as I am in the Rome, GA area. Regardless of how much we get, I'm thinking that school will likely be canceled on Tues and maybe Weds, or at very least early release Tuesday and canceled Wednesday. If it looks like we're getting any snow on Tuesday during the day, I'm keeping the kiddos home and I am also telling my interns to stay on campus and play. I fought through Snowjam in 2012-ish and had to drive to Berry College last year in December for a meeting.  While I truly enjoy the adventure of driving in the snow by myself, I have no desire to do so with my children or put my students at risk.  That is unless things trend warmer, or there is a greater disconnection between the cold and rain.

With the temperature change suggested, I am thinking that road conditions are going to deteriorate rapidly (please correct me if I am wrong). On the plus side, the ground will likely turn white, I like playing in the snow on the roads and I will likely have the chance to go meet the prescribed fire team I'll be working with this year because work will let out early. YMMV

Anyone have some thoughts on the functional impacts for their area. I mean realistically if the ground and roads turn whitish in GA it's usually an interesting day (win for us snow lovers), anything else is icing on the cake.

 

Edited by Jay

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3 minutes ago, Jay said:

 


At the moment I'm more looking at functional impacts, as I am in the Rome, GA area. Regardless of how much we get, I'm thinking that school will likely be canceled on Tues and maybe Weds, or at very least early release Tuesday and canceled Wednesday. If it looks like we're getting any snow on Tuesday during the day, I'm keeping the kiddos home and I am also telling my interns to stay on campus and play. I fought through Snowjam in 2012-ish and had to drive to Berry College last year in December for a meeting.  While I truly enjoy the adventure of driving in the snow by myself, I have no desire to do so with my children or put my students at risk.  That is unless things trend warmer, or there is a greater disconnection between the cold and rain.

With the temperature change suggested, I am thinking that road conditions are going to deteriorate rapidly (please correct me if I am wrong). On the plus side, the ground will likely turn white, I like playing in the snow on the roads and I will likely have the chance to go meet the prescribed fire team I'll be working with this year because work will let out early. YMMV

Anyone have some thoughts on the functional impacts for their area. I mean realistically if the ground and roads turn whitish in GA it's usually an interesting day (win for us snow lovers), anything else is icing on the cake.

 

Yeah with the current timing, I fully expect school to be a no go on Tuesday for most of N GA. Maybe staged releases for those further east, but they may not even want to risk it with how quickly conditions will likely deteriorate. Wednesday will just depend on what actually happens. And yes, I definitely expect us to see some of the more dangerous road conditions that we see here. It is perhaps a worst case scenario, starting as liquid then a transition to frozen with a flash freeze into the teens. And the further into the teens you go the less effective road salt can become.

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

And the further into the teens you go the less effective road salt can become.

Lol, let's not under estimate the impact of drivers who have no idea what they are doing while on slick roads...............

 

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22 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

You are sitting in the perfect spot in my opinion. The potential rates with banding plus upslope there, combined with rising ratios as the storm progresses should make it a quick dump in that area. If anyone is going to push 4-6 out of this storm, I think it will be in your area in those further west mountain counties, as opposed to over my way which normally sees the highest totals. But we don't normally see systems like this.

I have a hunch that my longing for a significant weather event is going to bite me in the butt. In a "normal" scenario, you know when the snow is coming and it comes gradually. This, however, is shaping up to be rain to frozen so quickly it's most certainly going to cause moderate to significant impacts in my area. 

At least my wife has an amateur weather wannabe, with enough insight (with the help of all of you) to let her plan her day much in advance as she drives for a living.

We'll see in the morning.

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I am concerned about the timing and rapid freeze up. I will be staying home with my children Tuesday out of caution.

 

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It's so interesting to read the variety of forecasts!  NWS for my area says less than half an inch.  Timing and temp has changed on theirs too -- temps wouldn't go down till quite a bit later.  Then Firsthand Weather paints a much more exciting picture!

I just hope if it's going to be bad, we know in time to have everyone stay off the roads!

 

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4 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

It's so interesting to read the variety of forecasts!  NWS for my area says less than half an inch.  Timing and temp has changed on theirs too -- temps wouldn't go down till quite a bit later.  Then Firsthand Weather paints a much more exciting picture!

I just hope if it's going to be bad, we know in time to have everyone stay off the roads!

 

I think we know now. 

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4 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

It's so interesting to read the variety of forecasts!  NWS for my area says less than half an inch.  Timing and temp has changed on theirs too -- temps wouldn't go down till quite a bit later.  Then Firsthand Weather paints a much more exciting picture!

I just hope if it's going to be bad, we know in time to have everyone stay off the roads!

 

Where are you at again? My memory is terrible lol

Firsthand is definitely way overdone in a lot of places. They're painting with too broad of a brush in spots, and not paying attention to local climatology with an event like this. 

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1 minute ago, Bagsmom said:

Then Firsthand Weather paints a much more exciting picture!

I just hope if it's going to be bad, we know in time to have everyone stay off the roads!

 

I would take Firsthand with a large grain of salt. While I don't know them personally, I would not in any way, shape or form take their maps as verbatim. I suspect that their maps depict where they think up to an inch of snow will fall....... and should convective banding occurs, where more than an inch (up to 4") may occur. Basically:

"here is the limits of where we think that the likest chance is for accumulating snowfall, and that may be between 1" and 4""

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8 minutes ago, JenRay said:

I love First hand. They usually get it right. 

Same, I've been following Matthew for years. It's preliminary so I'm sure they'll update it. I love when they do Facebook lives and engage with the public explaining why and how it happened the way it did.

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Euro is way down again. Why I was surprised to see NWS so bullish so early when the overall trend on most guidance that’s in good range has been downward now for over a day. Euro is very dry, less than a tenth of an inch liquid for most outside of far NW GA. And the timing couldn’t be worse with trying to fight day time heating in the eastern zones where the precip arrives later.

For now 2 clear camps exist. The Euro/Canadian/Icon are all dryer and therefor less snow. The GFS/NAM/UKMet are all wetter and therefor more. I suspect, handling of the East coast system and subtle interactions between it and our system may be what’s causing the discrepancies in the guidance. So, yet another day of model battles is ahead. Higher resolution guidance is really about to start coming into its best range and we can begin leaning on it more going forward.

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One thing that may end up hurting us are daytime temps. To our west in Alabama, the snow comes in during the coldest time of the day, here it comes through during the warmest time of the day, and despite the cold air advection, the push may not be strong enough to overcome the daytime heating. That in tern delays/shortens the switch over to snow.

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The extended discussion from Larry Cosgrove

Quote
The 64 million dollar question that commodities traders and weather enthusiasts are asking: will the bitter cold return after the expected warming trend. The short answer is an easy one: YES. But the more complicated issue is how that transformation happens, and who can expect to be afflicted by another Arctic intrusion. More to the point, where will important snowfall occur?
 
The El Nino episode is weakening, particularly along the eastern sectors (the 3.4 and 4 divisions are more or less stable, adding to a Modoki appearance to this ENSO signature). That would lead one to believe that the current big "Arctic blast" is not a one-shot deal, particularly since national temperatures have been cooling since the middle of January. With warmer than normal profiles in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast, the stage should be set for more -EPO type ridging. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is strong and predicted to cover more of the Phase 8 position in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Basin. So any connection with the polar westerlies might enhance amplification of the jet stream.
 
Lastly we check the numerical models, which are finally emerging from some late-week chaos to exhibit a cold West vs. warm East alignment at the start of the 11 - 15 day period. That configuration slowly changes to a more central North America trough and finally, to extensive blocking signatures across the West Coast, Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. That type of 500MB flow got us to where we are now, and both the CFS and ECMWF model output agree on this rather ominous outlook to last through the rest of February. This particular set-up is very favorable for widespread ice and snow well into the Deep South, as well as frozen precipitation maxima in the Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. The western 1/3 of the country, meanwhile trends warmer and drier. The pattern looks to continue through the first week of March, before a general collapse into a split flow occurs in the second week towards St. Patrick's Day. That will likely translate to a warmer third month, with plentiful rain and thunderstorms for many.
 
But before then, just sit back, turn up the heat, dream of snow, ice and extreme cold. Don't you just love it?
 
 
 
 
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, January 26, 2019 at 10:05 P.M. CT

 

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43 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

They have backed off on their amounts.

 

It must be true since they got Clarke county right on the edge. ūü§£

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<rant on>

I have to admit, I'm more than a little disappointed in the overnight model runs, as I was expecting to see a little better organized system than what I'm seeing this morning. It's amazing how we get all of these great Gulf rains in Dec/early Jan, yet once we get a little cold, we can't buy any moisture. And I am majorly disappointed in the blocking, or lack of, and to me, that has been the whole problem with the pattern so far. This fast split flow has been killing us by overwhelming the pattern, and it hasn't gotten any better. 

So yea, more than a little frustrated right now. So far, this has not worked out at all like it was planned. 

<rant off>

 

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