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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

<rant on>

I have to admit, I'm more than a little disappointed in the overnight model runs, as I was expecting to see a little better organized system than what I'm seeing this morning. It's amazing how we get all of these great Gulf rains in Dec/early Jan, yet once we get a little cold, we can't buy any moisture. And I am majorly disappointed in the blocking, or lack of, and to me, that has been the whole problem with the pattern so far. This fast split flow has been killing us by overwhelming the pattern, and it hasn't gotten any better. 

So yea, more than a little frustrated right now. So far, this has not worked out at all like it was planned. 

<rant off>

 

Hang in there Steve! I think we are all getting a little frustrated waiting for our big snow considering this was supost to be our winter but I believe it will come very soon and you will be very busy keeping us updated. 🌨

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

<rant on>

I have to admit, I'm more than a little disappointed in the overnight model runs, as I was expecting to see a little better organized system than what I'm seeing this morning. It's amazing how we get all of these great Gulf rains in Dec/early Jan, yet once we get a little cold, we can't buy any moisture. And I am majorly disappointed in the blocking, or lack of, and to me, that has been the whole problem with the pattern so far. This fast split flow has been killing us by overwhelming the pattern, and it hasn't gotten any better. 

So yea, more than a little frustrated right now. So far, this has not worked out at all like it was planned. 

<rant off>

 

And here I'm thinking after 17-18 winter couldn't get any worse. Yet Mother nature is like "hold my beer 🍺... I'm gonna give you plenty of what if opportunities (wasting your time/money) while I laugh my head off." 😂 I much rather have a torch and beautiful weather over an abnormally high amount of cold rain. Please, Feb bring back my 70s and sunshine! 😍... I'm so over winter.

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System is coming through faster and pulling the moisture quicker. Of course. We get flooding rains when it's warmer, but we get squat when it gets a little bit cold. 

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3 minutes ago, Athens said:

And here I'm thinking after 17-18 winter couldn't get any worse. Yet Mother nature is like "hold my beer 🍺... I'm gonna give you plenty of what if opportunities (wasting your time/money) while I laugh my head off." 😂 I much rather have a torch and beautiful weather over an abnormally high amount of cold rain. Please, Feb bring back my 70s and sunshine! 😍... I'm so over winter.

I feel your pain. And yes, those late 60's/early 70's winters were awesome! I have so many great memories of those. Now we can't buy any snow. 

Again, it all comes down to a lack of blocking. We can't capture the cold air and have storm tracks dig to the south of us, instead, the storms track to the north and sweep out to sea. Nothing gets locked in. I don't think that we've had more than a day or two of real cold in a row, despite all the great things to our north. 

I agree, if it's not going to snow, it might as well be warm. This is nonsense right now.  😠

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I feel your pain. And yes, those late 60's/early 70's winters were awesome! I have so many great memories of those. Now we can't buy any snow. 

Again, it all comes down to a lack of blocking. We can't capture the cold air and have storm tracks dig to the south of us, instead, the storms track to the north and sweep out to sea. Nothing gets locked in. I don't think that we've had more than a day or two of real cold in a row, despite all the great things to our north. 

I agree, if it's not going to snow, it might as well be warm. This is nonsense right now.  😠

Funny thing is last winter was pretty warm overall and it was a la Nina but many still saw decent snowfall. In fact, a lot of folks in the deep south did. Savannah even ended up seeing more snow than us! While this year's modoki El Nino never really got it's act together.  (So much for being in winter's battleground) Weather is beyond weird here, I can't even try to understand it. 😅😩

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In the meantime, we'll hold on to the hopes... NWS Birmingham explains

Quote

No significant changes were made to snow amounts and timing with
rain changing to snow on Tuesday morning. Models are in perhaps
the worst agreement so far with the specifics of the upcoming snow
event. This setup will be very sensitive to subtle changes with
the handling of vorticity in the base of the 500mb trough. The GFS
ensemble mean trended upward with amounts while the European
ensemble mean trended downward. Meanwhile the NAM continues to
indicate rain changing to a quick burst of moderate to perhaps
heavy snow and the potential for convective snow. This would
result in a significant impact for areas near and north of the
I-20 corridor as temperatures drop rapidly into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. The 03z SREF suggests a similar potential, and the SREF
mean has increased to near 1.5 inches for Birmingham. Several
SREF members are now in the 2 to 4 inch range as well. I am
concerned that global operational and ensemble guidance will
remain inconsistent for the next 24 hours, giving short lead time
on a more significant event. We'll continue to closely watch the
NAM, SREF, and other hi-res guidance which may give us an earlier
indication of which way this event will trend. This forecast
update holds steady from the previous forecast, with 1 to 2 inch
amounts along and north of a line from Demopolis to Anniston and
amounts tapering to a trace just north of I-85.

 

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Okay Steve I see outside a moon halo....this foretells of a hard winter.  Weather lore says a lunar halo is the precursor of impending unsettled weather, especially during the winter months. Sooooo may be this is a sign.

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NWS Huntsville 

Quote

An increasing coverage of prefrontal convective-type showers is
expected as the front crosses our region, with precipitation quickly
transitioning to more widespread stratiform precipitation immediately
in the wake of the surface wind shift axis. The vertical column
should cool below freezing rather rapidly, as the deep/cold arctic
airmass spreads southeastward into the region, with precipitation
expected to quickly transition to snow. There remains quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding potential snowfall accumulations, as warm
ground temperatures, the fast eastward motion of the postfrontal
precip band, and a decreasing trend in the strength of the synoptic

scale lift will all contribute to limit snow totals. However, for the
sake of consistency and collaboration, we only indicated a minor
adjustment to our storm total snow accumulation grid from the
previous shift. Another notable trend in the consensus guidance is
for a more rapid end to precipitation than previously anticipated,
and this is likely in response to a faster eastward motion of the
mid-level wave supplying the postfrontal lift. As a result of this
reasoning, we have reduced POPs fairly substantially after 29/12Z,
with only a few lingering flurries possible in northeast AL by late

Tuesday morning. It is still important to note that strong northwest
winds and low-level CAA will keep temps from reaching freezing for
most locations on Tuesday, and this will allow for little -- if any
-- melting of snow/ice.

 

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3 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

Okay Steve I see outside a moon halo....this foretells of a hard winter.  Weather lore says a lunar halo is the precursor of impending unsettled weather, especially during the winter months. Sooooo may be this is a sign.

I sure need a sign right now... 😉

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Steve you don’t think you’ll see any snow??  I feel like you will.  Might not get any to stick but you should definitely see snow.  Unless I am seeing things wrong??

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I think I'll see some, but little to any on the ground here, at least that's the way it looks at the moment. Trying to forecast this one is a REAL headache right now. 

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

System is coming through faster and pulling the moisture quicker. Of course. We get flooding rains when it's warmer, but we get squat when it gets a little bit cold. 

Perfect example of lots of moisture when it warms up!🤮

3AEECFB7-BA20-4D26-80CE-53A2404D4448.png

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I’ve heard grumblings of a warm up until 2nd half of Feb!? We’re running out of time for mistakes! JB still saying last 2 weeks of Feb and first 2 weeks of March are going to be great for the East!? He’s been sooooo wrong about the whole winter, he’s not giving me warm fuzzies!

Edited by SNOW
Df

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1 minute ago, SNOW said:

I’ve heard grumbling softly a warm up until 2nd half of Feb!? We’re running out of time for mistakes! JB still saying last 2 weeks of Feb and first 2 weeks of March are going to be great for the East!? He’s been sooooo wrong about the whole winter, he’s not giving me warm fuzzies!

Yes, there will be a short warm up. He's not the only one saying that either. But our time will be running out once we get to the middle of the month. We'll have a few good weeks left and that will be it. And although we can get a good snow in March, I NEVER count on it. 

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This mornings GFSv3, looks juicy to me! In the Upstate, I never had a dog in this fight, but really pulling for NGa to get some snow! Y’all do great in these situations, us, not so much. I’m expecting showers as the mountains delay the cold air until precip is long gone!

F4B0DADB-79A6-4EEE-9D10-F2B6D9EACC74.png

Edited by SNOW
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17 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yes, there will be a short warm up. He's not the only one saying that either. But our time will be running out once we get to the middle of the month. We'll have a few good weeks left and that will be it. And although we can get a good snow in March, I NEVER count on it. 

Yeah, when I hear people saying 

“ I’ve had good snows in March” it just sounds desperate! Lol! March 1 2009 was good to me though!

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43 minutes ago, SNOW said:

This mornings GFSv3, looks juicy to me! In the Upstate, I never had a dog in this fight, but really pulling for NGa to get some snow! Y’all do great in these situations, us, not so much. I’m expecting showers as the mountains delay the cold air until precip is long gone!

F4B0DADB-79A6-4EEE-9D10-F2B6D9EACC74.png

Will this move SE? Or NE and cover the whole state?

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I just remember Dec 2017.  I planned for rain with a spit of snow....nothing going to stick.  Next week and Dec 2017 probably 2 totally different situations, but I am hesitant to think that we are or are not going to get something.  I worry about the rain not having time to dry and then icing on the roads later in the day.  I worry that what ever the salt trucks put on the roads will get washed away with that rain.  So I am going to exercise on the side of caution but plan on nothing and be excited if we get something. :)

Edited by Ham360

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I still think top down cooling may help some see the transition sooner. I’m seeing lots of snow soundings even at 38 degrees. The warm air is pretty shallow, and the column is very cold above. So some may see a white rain for a while. Overall setup was never great for a major winter event. It’s a shame that a big flashy run or two from the euro had to get everyone too excited. Ultimately when the euro spent over 24 hours trending in the wrong direction, while in its wheelhouse for accuracy, that should tell us all we need to know. Flash freeze concern is still the biggest impact. NW GA and the western mountain counties was always the best place to be for this one. Frontal boundary snow is a finicky situation, and one I’ve never been thrilled by because there are inherently just so many things involved that will work against you. 

I think from here on things will get harder to score wintry events. When the pacific flow takes over it is often very stubborn to let go, and by the time it does it may be too late here. Outside of lucky timing, or maybe a few CAD events, I see nothing noteworthy ahead. I respect guys like Joe Bastardi but he can often be overzealous on cold and snow and it can come back to bite him. I feel for him cause there were a lot of signs that pointed to what he has been talking about, but ultimately this winter has not been what was expected for basically the entire east coast. Split flow and pacific jet have ruled the day for the most part, and they look to continue doing so. 

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15 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I still think top down cooling may help some see the transition sooner. I’m seeing lots of snow soundings even at 38 degrees. The warm air is pretty shallow, and the column is very cold above. So some may see a white rain for a while. Overall setup was never great for a major winter event. It’s a shame that a big flashy run or two from the euro had to get everyone too excited. Ultimately when the euro spent over 24 hours trending in the wrong direction, while in its wheelhouse for accuracy, that should tell us all we need to know. Flash freeze concern is still the biggest impact. NW GA and the western mountain counties was always the best place to be for this one. Frontal boundary snow is a finicky situation, and one I’ve never been thrilled by because there are inherently just so many things involved that will work against you. 

I think from here on things will get harder to score wintry events. When the pacific flow takes over it is often very stubborn to let go, and by the time it does it may be too late here. Outside of lucky timing, or maybe a few CAD events, I see nothing noteworthy ahead. I respect guys like Joe Bastardi but he can often be overzealous on cold and snow and it can come back to bite him. I feel for him cause there were a lot of signs that pointed to what he has been talking about, but ultimately this winter has not been what was expected for basically the entire east coast. Split flow and pacific jet have ruled the day for the most part, and they look to continue doing so. 

Next winter can’t be this bad right? 

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