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End of January Winter Weather Possibilities


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I’ll take #12 for $500, Bob.

@RickyD

Oh behalf of all us snow lovers that might get left out this time, I found this beauty at 324hours on the GFS... lol I think we all need some eye candy at this point while we hold out to see what happ

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah, it’s like none of the models want to show the same thing at the same time lol

Yeah the plumes and EURO increase and the NAM is like let’s really mess with them. 

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Well NWS GSP has me ready to throw in the towel for my location...😕 Not really sure why they posted the Winter Storm Watch given their forecast.

Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain likely between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 2pm. High near 39. Southwest wind 5 to 11 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Well NWS GSP has me ready to throw in the towel for my location...😕 Not really sure why they posted the Winter Storm Watch given their forecast.

Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain likely between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 2pm. High near 39. Southwest wind 5 to 11 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

AC058BC3-2241-4CF9-B494-76FC33E341BD.thumb.png.66c44a9f683403ef6939cb396b62ce58.png

 

Most likely for the higher ridges in the county (Germany Valley and Sky Valley). They are still forecasting 2" in Sky Valley but after looking at the models, I am very skeptical. It seems to be very moisture starved when it gets to our area. As it stands right now, 2" would be a big time over performance. I just see very little gulf moisture being tapped into which isn't a surprise for a clipper type system in our area. If we don't see big flips in the models by tomorrow morning, it will be about time to throw in the towel. It does create a tough scenario for the school system up here though, if we send kids to school and it starts snowing heavily, it's not an easy task getting them all home with the geography of our county. They do a great job with these type of scenarios, so we will just have to wait and see. 

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3 minutes ago, Preston said:

Most likely for the higher ridges in the county (Germany Valley and Sky Valley). They are still forecasting 2" in Sky Valley but after looking at the models, I am very skeptical. It seems to be very moisture starved when it gets to our area. As it stands right now, 2" would be a big time over performance. I just see very little gulf moisture being tapped into which isn't a surprise for a clipper type system in our area. If we don't see big flips in the models by tomorrow morning, it will be about time to throw in the towel. It does create a tough scenario for the school system up here though, if we send kids to school and it starts snowing heavily, it's not an easy task getting them all home with the geography of our county. They do a great job with these type of scenarios, so we will just have to wait and see. 

Yeah even for your area I think 2 inches would be a big win. Just seeing the ground white down here would be huge in my book. We’ve got the SW flow aloft from about 800mb up, but fighting the downsloping in the boundary layer will be hard. And yeah, I fully expect the kids to get a day off on Tuesday just due to the risk and timing.

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah even for your area I think 2 inches would be a big win. Just seeing the ground white down here would be huge in my book. We’ve got the SW flow aloft from about 800mb up, but fighting the downsloping in the boundary layer will be hard. And yeah, I fully expect the kids to get a day off on Tuesday just due to the risk and timing.

I could see this shaping up to be a nowcasting sort of event in Rabun. If we can get a more SW to NE orientation the upslope flow becomes more in our favor and the boundary setting up more to our east from say eastern Habersham County to Oconee County, SC it could over perform but the models just don't seem conducive to that idea. I'm willing to give it a few more model runs. You have lived up this way longer than I have, but I just haven't completely bought in to the idea of it being as moisture starved as models want to paint it. The models really struggle with this type of scenario in my limited time of being here and the NWS doesn't seem to want to totally give up on the idea of 2-3+ inches just yet either. I'll be sure to keep us updated on Tuesday as to what it does in the high country (assuming I get the day off work from educating our youth, but I'm with you in thinking they will probably go on the safe side and taking the day off).

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1 minute ago, Preston said:

I could see this shaping up to be a nowcasting sort of event in Rabun. If we can get a more SW to NE orientation the upslope flow becomes more in our favor and the boundary setting up more to our east from say eastern Habersham County to Oconee County, SC it could over perform but the models just don't seem conducive to that idea. I'm willing to give it a few more model runs. You have lived up this way longer than I have, but I just haven't completely bought in to the idea of it being as moisture starved as models want to paint it. The models really struggle with this type of scenario in my limited time of being here and the NWS doesn't seem to want to totally give up on the idea of 2-3+ inches just yet either. I'll be sure to keep us updated on Tuesday as to what it does in the high country (assuming I get the day off work from educating our youth, but I'm with you in thinking they will probably go on the safe side and taking the day off).

Yeah we are going to be right on the razors edge either way. Either we see an inch or so and just a few miles east is nothing, or we see mostly nothing and a few miles west is the widespread snow. I’m not sure the modeling can even accurately predict a margin this tight. Antecedent conditions will make a difference, morning lows on Tuesday might clue us in on timing of a changeover. Although I remain convinced top down cooling might allow us to see snow fairly quickly but just melting on contact. I think it really comes down to if the SW flow aloft is enough to deliver at least light precip behind the front even with the drying of the boundary. 

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Just now, Foots said:

Those of you who know the weather... Is there a local TV meteorologist that you trust more than others?  Just curious because I'm seeing such conflicting information the last few days from some of them.

Not a TV meteorologist, but WSB's Kirk Mellish is usually pretty accurate as far as I can tell. He posts blog updates to keep everyone informed. I like Glenn Burns but sometimes he seems a bit conservative on the wintery precip.

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Just now, Foots said:

Those of you who know the weather... Is there a local TV meteorologist that you trust more than others?  Just curious because I'm seeing such conflicting information the last few days from some of them.

Most broadcast meteorologist are constrained by station management. It's all about ratings and they don't want some rogue meteorologist going on air and blowing some storm out of proportion and busting. The next storm when the ratings are down, someone would be in trouble. There are times the stations let them loose, especially during severe weather etc. 

I am not speaking badly about any of them because some follow... 😉

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Cold air will begin to rush in behind the cold front (aloft and at
the surface), so a change over from all rain (ahead of the front) to
wintry precip (behind the front) is possible in far NW corner just
before sunrise Tuesday. Model soundings have been fairly consistent
over the last few runs indicating that snow should be the
predominate form or wintry precip. However, do think a brief period
of sleet is possible right at the rain to snow transition. The model
soundings support it. Snow/sleet accumulations should be under 1/2"
through 11Z-12Z Tuesday.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Primary concern is winter precip types and accumulations on
Tuesday. As mentioned in short term discussion, progressive arctic
cold front will push through quickly during the day Tuesday. 12Z
guidance a bit faster with progression of precip with a potential
quick end to the snow. Also some indication strong drying in low
levels will limit QPF and snow amounts behind front. Even with
these factored in, should be enough lift for a quick 1-2 inches of
snow even into most of ATL metro. Have issued WS watch even down
to counties to the southern edge of latest snow accumulations.
Still some uncertainty. These types of arctic fronts with such
strong temp gradients are uncommon in GA, any type of overrunning,
warm advection should be enough for a period of light snow, even
without the presence of a classic sfc or 850mb low pressure to the
south.

 

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