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End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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55 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

Here is a question:  are "the models" tuned in to next week's cold?  The lowest I'm seeing next week is a high of 39 and a low of 19.  That is certainly very cold for here!   Is that what is expected?  Or are the models not picking up on it well enough yet?  Is it likely to be any lower?

From a modeling standpoint it can still go either way. Could trend a tick colder, or moderate as we get closer as has been common this winter. Beyond that there will be some more localized factors at play. Whether or not there’s snow on the ground, clearing of clouds, calming of winds, and timing of subsequent weather features will all play a factor in the ground truth. For now generally expect overnight lows approaching single digits for higher elevations and teens/low 20’s as you go south. 

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Seems like the 28 to 30th storm is going to be a clipper, so with that I'd presume more of a flurries and snow shower thing more than anything else. And ppl further east of western and northwest GA, it's not really going to be much.. 

Of course I'm just going off of how those usually work correct me if I'm wrong of course, im still learning 🤔

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19 minutes ago, GroceryStoreMan said:

Seems like the 28 to 30th storm is going to be a clipper, so with that I'd presume more of a flurries and snow shower thing more than anything else. And ppl further east of western and northwest GA, it's not really going to be much.. 

Of course I'm just going off of how those usually work correct me if I'm wrong of course, im still learning 🤔

I thought it was a frontal system. We usually don't see much of anything (not even rain) from clippers for those of us outside the mountains. 

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26 minutes ago, GroceryStoreMan said:

Seems like the 28 to 30th storm is going to be a clipper, so with that I'd presume more of a flurries and snow shower thing more than anything else. And ppl further east of western and northwest GA, it's not really going to be much.. 

Of course I'm just going off of how those usually work correct me if I'm wrong of course, im still learning 🤔

I believe the 28-30th system is based solely on whether or not moisture is slower(or stronger) or cold comes quicker(stronger) than anticipated. That could make or break this system. If all things go right I believe a lot of us could see some nice flurries. 🤞 Of course, it'll be northwest to southeast trend in this case. 

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6 minutes ago, Athens said:

I thought it was a frontal system. We usually don't see much of anything (not even rain) from clippers for those of us outside the mountains. 

Just looking at the gfs model and the nam, I see wht you mean by a frontal system, but it seems to be fairly brief in passing so unless it comes in heavy enough I don't know how much will accumulate if at all. Which is probably what the local national weather service is saying along with all other meteorologist's.

Again just learning so I can understand this stuff, and I love it when it may snow in Georgia. I think hope this storm or the following one in Feb give us something 😀

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7 minutes ago, GroceryStoreMan said:

Just looking at the gfs model and the nam, I see wht you mean by a frontal system, but it seems to be fairly brief in passing so unless it comes in heavy enough I don't know how much will accumulate if at all. Which is probably what the local national weather service is saying along with all other meteorologist's.

Again just learning so I can understand this stuff, and I love it when it may snow in Georgia. I think hope this storm or the following one in Feb give us something 😀

The nam isn't in range yet. And the Fv3 and CMC are interesting. We need a few more days to work out the fine details but at least models are showing a little more consistency and somewhat agreement. I do have more hope with seeing at least some flakes for the upcoming week...that's saying a lot coming from an Athens native. 😂😅

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It is a secondary wave forming along the arctic front. The ultimate factor is how much moisture is behind the front. NW GA has the best chance of the highest accumulations. As modeled it would likely range from an inch or 2 in the NW and decreasing as you go south and east. Everywhere in the lee of the Apps would struggle to have more than flurries. The CMC tonight is a good example though on how things can improve the more the wave digs and if it amplifies, but not too soon to flood us with warm air. 

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I think the tough part about this, is because of GA’s topography it is very hard to get a storm that will make all of us happy. We just have to cheer for everyone else, and hope it overperforms in your area and that there’s another storm down the road for you. If this one pans out, NW GA is the likely big winner. My big hope is for a big amped up gulf low, but I understand that those can often be tough for those to the south depending on the track cause they come with a lot of warmth. 

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I think the tough part about this, is because of GA’s topography it is very hard to get a storm that will make all of us happy. We just have to cheer for everyone else, and hope it overperforms in your area and that there’s another storm down the road for you. If this one pans out, NW GA is the likely big winner. My big hope is for a big amped up gulf low, but I understand that those can often be tough for those to the south depending on the track cause they come with a lot of warmth. 

Warm nose you mean? 

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54 minutes ago, Athens said:

Warm nose you mean? 

Yeah both aloft and at the surface. And depending how far north or south the track is will determine the rain snow line, and then the mixing zones can be very big in the really amped up storms cause the stronger they get the more warm air they pump up.

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These are the "official" NWS forecast highs and lows for next Wed/Thu. Let's watch and see how much these change between now and then.

Highs

ndfd_t2max_greatlakes_6-25.thumb.png.1d8d318b676a298d10c44ef44e89e42e.png

 

Lows

ndfd_t2min_greatlakes_6-25.thumb.png.bcc41b7c6d6e64a46a07f07d1333e4f8.png

 

Low Anomalies

ndfd_t2min_anom_greatlakes_6-25.thumb.png.b1d58740c1e679de675940201f788ab1.png

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In case you'd like to see the status of the American models (and there are a TON of them), this is the page. It tells you average start time, end time, status as well as any comments about the run. 
Right now (4:38 am) the 06Z GFS and ensembles are running, but also the HRRR,  RAP, and the wWave models. Busy computers. 😉

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html

Snap346062340.thumb.jpg.bf75051813538a86dde9eff0c2eae0ad.jpg

Snap346062341.thumb.jpg.502aa89c7bde7b6aa2cca14972859bbd.jpg

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Channel 46 out of Atlanta future cast is showin 3-6 for us in NW Ga and 6-12 at the Tn/Al/Ga boarder.    What has changed overnite

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I'm not sure what they are seeing. Here's what I see. I would also say that none of these are correct. 

NOT A FORECAST

cmc_snow_acc_atl_22-25.thumb.png.08c3fab81fc042b97d1ecb0a9514b1da.png

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_atl_19-25.thumb.png.bfad25e8e076c22125e876f046817301.png

ecmwf_tsnow_atl_23-25.thumb.png.1823c24775d1156274926da11e540a2c.png

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Looks like it may be a Atlanta and to the west and NW event. Sigh for us to the east haha 

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14 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm not sure what they are seeing. Here's what I see. I would also say that none of these are correct. 

NOT A FORECAST

cmc_snow_acc_atl_22-25.thumb.png.08c3fab81fc042b97d1ecb0a9514b1da.png

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_atl_19-25.thumb.png.bfad25e8e076c22125e876f046817301.png

ecmwf_tsnow_atl_23-25.thumb.png.1823c24775d1156274926da11e540a2c.png

Are you thinking more? Or less? Bc I really liked the overnight models I’m not gonna lie😂

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Interesting side note... that low pressure that was supposed to be our storm for this weekend at one point and models showed all week being super suppressed and going straight out through the Atlantic has now trended more NW and could be a surprise for North Carolina 

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6 hours ago, Athens said:

Dark Sky for February 1st. Lol One can only hope. 😍❄️

Screenshot_20190125-002718_Dark Sky.jpg

where did this come from?

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