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End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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When I look at the models I am seeing the 540 line well past my area (Athens) with rain....45 Hours if there is moisture will it be rain or sleet?  I have always looked at the 850 line.

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4 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

When I look at the models I am seeing the 540 line well past my area (Athens) with rain....45 Hours if there is moisture will it be rain or sleet?  I have always looked at the 850 line.

The 540 line is a good indicator of snow. 

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21 minutes ago, Foots said:

Those of you who know the weather... Is there a local TV meteorologist that you trust more than others?  Just curious because I'm seeing such conflicting information the last few days from some of them.

For the most part you aren't going to get a whole lot of differences between them due to the reasons Steve mentioned. If I watch the Atlanta news stations I tend to watch 2 and 5 more than the others. Personally I prefer to watch John Cessarich and Chris Justus from channel 4 in Greenville because I live along the SC border. They are very transparent and do multiple in depth facebook live videos a day during big weather events. 

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NWS Birmingham

Quote

The main forecast changes in our winter system time frame will be
that of an earlier arrival of precipitation. The 00z Euro threw a
monkey wrench into the mix by coming in with considerably less
moisture. The consensus was that this was in error/underdone. Kept

with the more consistently moist GFS. The GFS also brings in the
precipitation sooner with our hires models now coming in agreeing
with a quicker onset. For the most part, otherwise, our forecast
is similar as rain changes over to snow as the column becomes
saturated and quickly cools with very little if any warm nose
aloft in the soundings. So, as the rain changes over, there should
be little if any sleet (or quick) between rain to snow. Or we
could still have a rain/snow mix initially due to shallow warmer
temperatures right near the surface.
 

 

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13 minutes ago, Justcallmeloops said:

I am starting to feel like gwinnett and hall shouldnt even have a winter storm watch 😣

You may be surprised.

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8 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

You may be surprised.

You and I are counting on a surprise anyway 😅

Edited by Shannon
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44 minutes ago, Foots said:

Those of you who know the weather... Is there a local TV meteorologist that you trust more than others?  Just curious because I'm seeing such conflicting information the last few days from some of them.

I look at everybody and watch everybody but I get my information for what I do or don't do here from Steve

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I've been trying to keep up with this thread and doing a billion things around the house so I apologize if this has already been addressed. I live in Marietta (Sandy Plains area) so with the timing being sooner than expected could this be around 8-9 AM outset or later?

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Anyone have insight as to why Firsthand is being so generous with amounts? While they say that most areas in the 2"-4" zone will receive around 3", they did not provide any explanation for their reasoning in the post they made on FB.

Link to Article

Firsthand.png

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I’m confused why some say 1-2” for Habersham but we are not under the watch..... also maps show we are at freezing temps early but again not under a watch.... 🤷🏻‍♀️

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Nws has graphic you posted that says the heavy snow might shift further south as it approaches from Alabama making totals higher in west ga and ATLANTA metro. Why is that? See graphic below

 

Edited by Jamesw
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2 minutes ago, Jamesw said:

Nws has graphic you posted that says the heavy snow might shift further south as it approaches from Alabama making totals higher in west ga and ATLANTA metro. Why is that? See graphic below

 

Some models have been showing a heavier band coming up through there. If it does occur it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities to see a swath of 2-3 inches through there. 

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4 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Some models have been showing a heavier band coming up through there. If it does occur it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities to see a swath of 2-3 inches through there. 

Awesome. I’m in midtown!

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20 minutes ago, Selena said:

I’m confused why some say 1-2” for Habersham but we are not under the watch..... also maps show we are at freezing temps early but again not under a watch.... 🤷🏻‍♀️

Anyone saying 1-2 for there is simply using their own intuition outside of the NWS or model guidance. Based on the NWS forecast the watch is barely warranted even for me in Rabun County. It’s certainly not impossible, but with where we are right now it’d be a surprise.

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39 minutes ago, Melissa said:

I look at everybody and watch everybody but I get my information for what I do or don't do here from Steve

You are awesome! Thank you!

 

26 minutes ago, Brooke said:

I've been trying to keep up with this thread and doing a billion things around the house so I apologize if this has already been addressed. I live in Marietta (Sandy Plains area) so with the timing being sooner than expected could this be around 8-9 AM outset or later?

May start 8-9 am for you. 

24 minutes ago, Jay said:

Anyone have insight as to why Firsthand is being so generous with amounts? While they say that most areas in the 2"-4" zone will receive around 3", they did not provide any explanation for their reasoning in the post they made on FB.

Link to Article

Firsthand.png

Good question. 

 

17 minutes ago, Jamesw said:

Nws has graphic you posted that says the heavy snow might shift further south as it approaches from Alabama making totals higher in west ga and ATLANTA metro. Why is that? See graphic below

 

Heavier rates of precipitation.

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20 minutes ago, Selena said:

I’m confused why some say 1-2” for Habersham but we are not under the watch..... also maps show we are at freezing temps early but again not under a watch.... 🤷🏻‍♀️

Anyone saying 1-2 for there is simply using their own intuition outside of the NWS or model guidance. Based on the NWS forecast the watch is barely warranted even for me in Rabun County. It’s certainly not impossible, but with where we are right now it’d be a surprise.

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lol   Have fun!!  Spann is da man!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=jSUuhm5595Y

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I wonder when the temps are supposed to drop?  The winter storm watch is for Monday night into Tuesday and I've heard that precipitation should start Tuesday morning, if not before.  But some of the temperature stuff I'm seeing is showing 34 and 35 until much later Tuesday afternoon.  Is there something in the works indicating that the temps may drop sooner?  (I'm just NW of Metro Atlanta.)

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5 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

I wonder when the temps are supposed to drop?  The winter storm watch is for Monday night into Tuesday and I've heard that precipitation should start Tuesday morning, if not before.  But some of the temperature stuff I'm seeing is showing 34 and 35 until much later Tuesday afternoon.  Is there something in the works indicating that the temps may drop sooner?  (I'm just NW of Metro Atlanta.)

Snap346062371.thumb.jpg.8e08b6d63e5bf82b8c9a588a1404366a.jpg

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Some SREF ensemble plumes. In case some of you are wondering, these are short range ensemble forecast model runs and the thick black line is the mean or average of the ensemble runs.

chattanooga-27.thumb.jpg.78ae6279edf42bbb9f3aef88991d59c2.jpgathens-27-2.thumb.jpg.cd08f5ede8777ab619cd4df326964a9d.jpgatlamta-27.thumb.jpg.ce1422876e576b774db899786a13bcd1.jpggainesville-27.jpg-27-2.thumb.jpg.d3b9037db0693a385f3a523a139fb314.jpgdalton-27-2.thumb.jpg.59a7f3bce1938e8ceeaa84baa7ca2b5f.jpg

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