Jump to content
  • Forum Image
NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Some SREF ensemble plumes. In case some of you are wondering, these are short range ensemble model runs and the thick black line is the mean or average of the ensemble runs.

chattanooga-27.thumb.jpg.78ae6279edf42bbb9f3aef88991d59c2.jpgathens-27-2.thumb.jpg.cd08f5ede8777ab619cd4df326964a9d.jpgatlamta-27.thumb.jpg.ce1422876e576b774db899786a13bcd1.jpggainesville-27.jpg-27-2.thumb.jpg.d3b9037db0693a385f3a523a139fb314.jpgdalton-27-2.thumb.jpg.59a7f3bce1938e8ceeaa84baa7ca2b5f.jpg

These update again in the next hour or so correct?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

These update again in the next hour or so correct?

Quote

The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational WRF-NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). Output is available at 3h intervals through 87 hours.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am going to ASK a frustrated but what i believe to be a valid question.  Do you believe this whole Polar Vortex has been over hyped?  I know there is very very cold air over the mid west and North, but i just got through watching Spann's update for the area.  He is saying the temps will drop below freezing but the sun will come out and the temps will go up to 34-35 ,even in the North.  I had heard all week .cold cold--temps dropping all day after this TERRIBLE COLD...with possible lows (at one time near 0) .  Now they are barely calling for low 20's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was never any chance for any part of the PV to drop this far south (except for that one wildly extreme model run we saw). It's not over hyped if you live around the Great Lakes though. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, RickyD said:

I am going to ASK a frustrated but what i believe to be a valid question.  Do you believe this whole Polar Vortex has been over hyped?  I know there is very very cold air over the mid west and North, but i just got through watching Spann's update for the area.  He is saying the temps will drop below freezing but the sun will come out and the temps will go up to 34-35 ,even in the North.  I had heard all week .cold cold--temps dropping all day after this TERRIBLE COLD...with possible lows (at one time near 0) .  Now they are barely calling for low 20's.

The other issue is again, lack of blocking. You can't get deep cold without it, nor can you have lasting cold. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Snow1226 said:

Do you think the cold will come back after next week

We will see a warm up for a week but the cold is forecast to return

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

There was never any chance for any part of the PV to drop this far south (except for that one wildly extreme model run we saw). It's not over hyped if you live around the Great Lakes though. 

 

I read International Falls hit -46 today....?

Edited by Scarinzi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trend is clear on the NAM and it’s a ugly one 

Edited by Shannon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The trend is clear on the NAM and it’s a ugly one 

explain ugly?

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The trend is clear on the NAM and it’s a ugly one 

You can’t just leave it at that, Shannon.  🤭 define ugly.

Edited by Sara

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wish those of us in the mountains were lucky enough for that isentropic lift precip out ahead of the line to be snow. But lucky is not the descriptor that should be used for how this winter has went for the majority of the east coast. And given how bad that NAM run just looked for all of us, I’d say things are looking even more unlucky....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, JonE5 said:

explain ugly?

 

It's just uglyyy! I've never seen a precipitation line just go into full incognito mode only to reappear in south Georgia. 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_33.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_38.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_42.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, so all the experts need to explain to those of us who aren’t experts if this is even possible or was this just a fluke run?  How could the moisture just all disappear only to show up later on?  Please and thank you.  ☺️

Edited by Sara

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ofc this happens right when NWS give us a chance for snow. I'm sorry guys. 🥺

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Athens said:

It's just uglyyy! I've never seen a precipitation line just go into full incognito mode only to reappear in south Georgia. 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_33.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_38.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_42.png

This depiction is just a model error in that product. The problem is that the big drops in snow totals is not for that reason. If you go to the Radar (rain/frozen) model instead you can see it without the error.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

This depiction is just a model error in that product. The problem is that the big drops in snow totals is not for that reason. If you go to the Radar (rain/frozen) model instead you ca see it without the error.

Ah, cold chasing moisture.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But the 12km Nam paints a better picture. Why is that?

namconus_asnow_seus_29-3.png

Edited by Athens

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Athens said:

Ah, cold chasing moisture.

Appears that way. But this should be an anafront given jet stream location. Guess it’s more dry-cold killing moisture instead lol. Verbatim it’s showing 3-4 hours of precip max. I’m generally a pessimist and even I think this has got to be over done... Bless the NWS for having to try to sort through this mess. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Athens said:

But the 12km Nam paints a better picture. Why is that?

namconus_asnow_seus_29-3.png

Easy answer, it has a lower resolution so it could be missing something that the 3km is seeing. But I can’t say that’s what it is for certain. Sometimes these things just don’t make sense.

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.



×
×
  • Create New...