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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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8 minutes ago, Christine said:

Why is Gwinnett always the last to announce if they’re going to be closed 😩😩

Gwinnett is always slow 

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Schools are closing just to be safe. Any ice on the roads puts everyone in jeopardy, especially school buses. The fact it's coming in early means early dismissal was not an option, and since we are still under a Winter Storm Watch, being prudent is the wise thing to do. It could be dry tomorrow for all we know, but that is the issue... we don't know for certain.

Smart choices I say, but some will think it's stupid. Can't please everyone so err on the side of safety.  

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I was driving from Cleveland to Blairsville yesterday mid morning. The temp was actually warmer by about 5 degrees at the top of blood mountain than it was in cleveland or Blairsville 

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Schools are closing just to be safe. Any ice on the roads puts everyone in jeopardy, especially school buses. The fact it's coming in early means early dismissal was not an option, and since we are still under a Winter Storm Watch, being prudent is the wise thing to do. It could be dry tomorrow for all we know, but that is the issue... we don't know for certain.

Smart choices I say, but some will think it's stupid. Can't please everyone so err on the side of safety.  

I would soooo much rather them err on the side of caution then not. My stepmom AND dad drive school buses and were trapped for hours in Snowpocalypse with kids on board. My husband took 4 hours to make it 4 miles down Cobb parkway. There are a LOT of backroads and shady areas that will have black ice regardless. Better safe than sorry in an instance like this. 

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Just now, WILL said:

Gwinnett is always slow 

Back on the day of Snow Jam, I had been watching the storm for days, and when I saw the radar image of what was coming, I thought "they are going to have early dismissal). So I waited and watched. No announcement. I finally told everyone, "I'm getting out and you need to as well". Needless to say, I got home just in time, others weren't so lucky. That's why you can't wait until the last minute to make decisions. Decisions have to be made today so parents can make plans for tomorrow. In many families, both parents work, so arrangements have to be made for the kids. 

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1 minute ago, Franklincountygeorgia said:

I was driving from Cleveland to Blairsville yesterday mid morning. The temp was actually warmer by about 5 degrees at the top of blood mountain than it was in cleveland or Blairsville 

Inversion

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1 minute ago, LHarkins913 said:

I would soooo much rather them err on the side of caution then not. My stepmom AND dad drive school buses and were trapped for hours in Snowpocalypse with kids on board. My husband took 4 hours to make it 4 miles down Cobb parkway. There are a LOT of backroads and shady areas that will have black ice regardless. Better safe than sorry in an instance like this. 

Agree.

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I'm seeing a little more of what appears to be convective activity near the metro area on the RAP model. That could make things very interesting. There is a 3 hour difference in these images as the HRRR only goes to 18 hours.

rap_ref_seus_22.png.20e6565ed0700323cf0b60e1b9eb896a.png

 

The RAP also serves as the initialization for the HRRR. Both run hourly.

hrrr_ref_atl_19-28.thumb.png.20a8d8435cf3f222d5e284fcde9efa65.png

 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm seeing a little more of what appears to be convective activity near the metro area on the RAP model. That could make things very interesting.

rap_ref_seus_22.png.20e6565ed0700323cf0b60e1b9eb896a.png

Hey Steve! For us newbies, could you explain what that means? 🙂 Please and thank you! 

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm seeing a little more of what appears to be convective activity near the metro area on the RAP model. That could make things very interesting.

rap_ref_seus_22.png.20e6565ed0700323cf0b60e1b9eb896a.png

Last December over Paulding we had like HEAVY snow bands that packed a huge punch really quickly. I feel like that could happen in this instance as well. Not to the tune of 13” butttttt faster than melt rate for sure

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12 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Schools are closing just to be safe. Any ice on the roads puts everyone in jeopardy, especially school buses. The fact it's coming in early means early dismissal was not an option, and since we are still under a Winter Storm Watch, being prudent is the wise thing to do. It could be dry tomorrow for all we know, but that is the issue... we don't know for certain.

Smart choices I say, but some will think it's stupid. Can't please everyone so err on the side of safety.  

I'm all for that!!!!!  

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'm seeing a little more of what appears to be convective activity near the metro area on the RAP model. That could make things very interesting.

rap_ref_seus_22.png.20e6565ed0700323cf0b60e1b9eb896a.png

Hopefully this will bring more to the Dawson county area. We always seem to have a bubble that prevents us from getting any good winter precipitation except for the burnt mnt area. 

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2 minutes ago, Laura said:

Hey Steve! For us newbies, could you explain what that means? 🙂 Please and thank you! 

Those bright reds and yellows indicate some relatively heavy precip. High precip rates can cause the temps to crash quickly and snow can accumulate pretty fast. A quick thumping of snow is possible if any of those areas actually develop, so some may see more than forecast, or some may see snow where none was in the forecast. We just don't know yet and that's why I'm watching these trends from the short range high resolution models. 

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20 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Temps on the models are warming ever so slightly. 

This could actually be a good thing meaning more precipitation right??

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19 minutes ago, WILL said:

Gwinnett is always slow 

Gwinnett won’t Callout until early tomorrow morning!

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1 minute ago, WILL said:

Could we get Thunder ❄️?

I don't think so, it's not so much convective bands as it is "banding" of the showers. Waves rippling through the flow can trigger areas like that, but those are very hard to forecast. 

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These convective areas are what Firsthand Weather referred to a few days ago when he mentioned a more high impact situation.  That's what I was wondering about with the contrast between some forecasts of almost nothing -- vs. so many closing schools.  Maybe the NWS was seeing signs of that possibility?

I live midway between two schools.  In 2014, buses full of kids had to turn around and go back because they couldn't get up the icy slopes in the neighborhood.  No one wants a repeat of that year!  

By the way, I'm going to take credit for any school closings.  I was supposed to volunteer tomorrow morning so I just went ahead and got showered and did a few other things in preparation for being gone all morning.  Just before I did that, I thought:  "If I do all this, they will probably end up canceling school."  

I had a text within 15 minutes!  🤣 

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It's a very tricky situation. Now if this was a rain event, no big deal. Easy to forecast rain. But try to time this system out and let people know when it will changeover and how much they'll get. Glad that's not my job. 

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14 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Those bright reds and yellows indicate some relatively heavy precip. High precip rates can cause the temps to crash quickly and snow can accumulate pretty fast. A quick thumping of snow is possible if any of those areas actually develop, so some may see more than forecast, or some may see snow where none was in the forecast. We just don't know yet and that's why I'm watching these trends from the short range high resolution models. 

So that means Atlanta may see more than a trace now?! 🙂

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12 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

This could actually be a good thing meaning more precipitation right??

The extra precip would be nice, but not temps.

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Just now, Christine said:

So that means Atlanta may see more than a trace now?! 🙂

I think you'll see some snow Christine, just probably not sticking snow. But yes, under one of those heavier bands you could. We'll just have to wait and see. 

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15 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Those bright reds and yellows indicate some relatively heavy precip. High precip rates can cause the temps to crash quickly and snow can accumulate pretty fast. A quick thumping of snow is possible if any of those areas actually develop, so some may see more than forecast, or some may see snow where none was in the forecast. We just don't know yet and that's why I'm watching these trends from the short range high resolution models. 

Every time I think Athens is gonna get totally missed, you throw me a bone lol my heart can't take the suspense

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Surely if Havana, Cuba can get hit by a tornado the south can beat the odds and see a 2-3 inch snowfall!!

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