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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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2 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Gee thanks NAM. Where’d the snow go with that run?

Downright concerning. 3 out of the last 4 runs have been very dry, and the latest one the dryest of all.

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18 minutes ago, TheSimpleMan said:

Is this kind of an "eh-maybe" event for the areas in the warning or are they fairly confident of accumulating snows and worsening road conditions? I'm in Pickens and serving as the weather hub for the office lol. Quick, make me sound smart to everyone!

Pretty confident there. Of course... you know how that can go. 

If you get the shaft, you might get this

SnowAmt10Prcntl-28.thumb.png.4287d915b8cf53356fcc278160968eaa.png

 

The forecast is this

StormTotalSnowWeb-28-2.thumb.png.063a9bb34bbf676399ff05917a44289e.png

 

And if you get REAL lucky... you get this.

SnowAmt90Prcntl-28-2.thumb.png.0577535d6baf746ec5968a98d15becd8.png

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Downright concerning. 3 out of the last 4 runs have been very dry, and the latest one the dryest of all.

The HRRR still looked okay... is it kinda the same accuracy wise as the NAM or not? 

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Steve what do you think is going on with the 3km NAM? Gulf convection robbing moisture?

No. 

What's happening is that as the cold air arrives, it's mid morning and our temps are starting to warm, and the push of the cold air isn't keeping up with the heating from the sun (yes, behind the clouds). That 32 degree line quits moving southeast. 

Here's the 11 am sim radar, notice the freezing line

hires_ref_atl_29-28.png.d3500f094240c46688451f5bf7e69954.png

 

Here's the 1 pm radar, look at the freezing line at this time. It's going backwards.

hires_ref_atl_31-28.png.a837c527e9cdc95ea9533814497c87b2.png

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4 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

The HRRR still looked okay... is it kinda the same accuracy wise as the NAM or not? 

The HRRR is very good. They both have strengths and weaknesses, but within this time frame they are both very good.

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The HRRR is very good. They both have strengths and weaknesses, but within this time frame they are both very good.

Ok thanks... I’m just trying to hang onto some hope over here lol. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

No. 

What's happening is that as the cold air arrives, it's mid morning and our temps are starting to warm, and the push of the cold air isn't keeping up with the heating from the sun (yes, behind the clouds). That 32 degree line quits moving southeast. 

Here's the 11 am sim radar, notice the freezing line

hires_ref_atl_29-28.png.d3500f094240c46688451f5bf7e69954.png

 

Here's the 1 pm radar, look at the freezing line at this time. It's going backwards.

hires_ref_atl_31-28.png.a837c527e9cdc95ea9533814497c87b2.png

Okay I thought maybe our problems were twofold. Cause I saw qpf rise slightly along the Florida gulf coast while ours went down. 

 

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58 minutes ago, WILL said:

I already said that they will wait until tomorrow morning 

And this is why I don't like a decision like this.

Let's say that overnight we have a good turn of events and now we're going to have some snow. So then, at 5 am, they decide to tell everyone they are closed. Now... what do all of those parents do now that they have to scramble to find some place for their kids to go because they still have to go to work? They are creating a burden for many parents at that point. 

Parents need time to make their plans, last minute school decisions are very frustrating for many to have to deal with. When in doubt, the school system err on the side of safety by announcing the closing ahead of time. Yea, you might be wrong, but worse decisions have been made. Here in Gwinnett especially, we are already set up for Digital Learning Days. When using one of those days you have nothing to make up and nothing is lost. 

We'll see what they do, but I can tell you this, they are not known for making the wisest of decisions. 

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Okay I thought maybe our problems were twofold. Cause I saw qpf rise slightly along the Florida gulf coast while ours went down. 

 

No, it would take more convection than that. We're just marginal on everything. It look pretty encouraging until today. 🙂

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I’m gonna be glued to the edge of my proverbial seat for the next 24 hours. One can only hope things trend in our favor as the day ends... if not... onto the next... 

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Just now, LHarkins913 said:

I’m gonna be glued to the edge of my proverbial seat for the next 24 hours. One can only hope things trend in our favor as the day ends... if not... onto the next... 

At least you seem to have a good attitude about it! Some people get really cranky! 🙂

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

At least you seem to have a good attitude about it! Some people get really cranky! 🙂

Oh you know me, I’m one of the happiest when it snows and being so close and losing it SUCKS, buttttt what can ya do? Unless you’ve got the hookup at NASA and get some cloud seeding done😂😂😂😂😂

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I need to just quit looking at the forum and let mother nature do whatever.  The way the NAM is looking there will be little snow anywhere except those higher elevations.

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

At least you seem to have a good attitude about it! Some people get really cranky! 🙂

I’ve had my fair share of storms that make me cranky lol, mainly when warm nose makes it sleet or zr right in the middle of a big one.  But one as close of a call as this one is hard to get too upset about.

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1 minute ago, Christine said:

Is there another potential snow date on your radar Steve?

We're going to have a short warm up first. There are opportunities in the future, but nothing specific right now. 

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10 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

And this is why I don't like a decision like this.

Let's say that overnight we have a good turn of events and now we're going to have some snow. So then, at 5 am, they decide to tell everyone they are closed. Now... what do all of those parents do now that they have to scramble to find some place for their kids to go because they still have to go to work? They are creating a burden for many parents at that point. 

Parents need time to make their plans, last minute school decisions are very frustrating for many to have to deal with. When in doubt, the school system err on the side of safety by announcing the closing ahead of time. Yea, you might be wrong, but worse decisions have been made. Here in Gwinnett especially, we are already set up for Digital Learning Days. When using one of those days you have nothing to make up and nothing is lost. 

We'll see what they do, but I can tell you this, they are not known for making the wisest of decisions. 

True 

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