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End of January Winter Weather Possibilities


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I’ll take #12 for $500, Bob.

@RickyD

Oh behalf of all us snow lovers that might get left out this time, I found this beauty at 324hours on the GFS... lol I think we all need some eye candy at this point while we hold out to see what happ

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NWS Huntsville

http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/afd_hun2.html/

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Although prefrontal shower activity will likely become fairly
widespread immediately in advance of the front early Tuesday morning,
the overall syntopic environment featuring the mid-level trough to
our west still appears supportive of anafrontal precipitation in a
50-75 mile swath in the wake of the surface wind shift axis. We still
anticipate this precipitation to transition fairly rapidly to snow
as the vertical column cools well below freezing, with potential
accumulations ranging from around 1 inch in most valley locations to

perhaps as much as 1-2 inches in elevated terrain. Most guidance
suggests that the cold front will be exiting the region to the east
between 12-15Z Tuesday, with the threat for widespread snowfall
expected to end from W-to-E fairly quickly during the morning hours.
However, a few pockets of flurries or light snow showers will remain
possible across southern TN and adjacent portions of northeast AL
from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, as a series of mid-level
vorticity maxima rotate around a deeper cold core upper low over

Ontario. Temperatures will be quite tricky on Monday night/Tuesday,
as lows will be dependent on the precise location of the cold front
at 12Z. For the purpose of this forecast, we have only indicated a
limited increase in 12Z temperatures during the day on Tuesday, with
the most significant increases across the west where postfrontal
stratus clouds stand a better chance of eroding during the afternoon.
Regardless, due to the combination of clouds and rather strong low-
level CAA, we expect temps to remain near or slightly below freezing
for much of the day, so any accumulating snow will likely remain on
the ground for much of the period. Lows will tumble into the l-m
teens on Wednesday morning, and we have undercut guidance by a couple
of degrees in anticipation of at least some snow pack for most of
the region.

 

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7 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

Our school superintendent sent out the inclement weather policy/procedures yesterday.  I'm sure it was just a "that time of year" thing, but I had to wonder if perhaps they've heard something...

Coming from a school system... they have heard. People talk... and you never know who is following in the background. 😉
What school system?

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7 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Coming from a school system... they have heard. People talk... and you never know who is following in the background. 😉
What school system?

I'm wondering that too.  We get the digital learning day spill every staff meeting, starting in November. 

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Just now, Wendy4 said:

I'm wondering that too.  We get the digital learning day spill every staff meeting, starting in November. 

Yep. But I still think that ought to just be days off.  Those kids aren't getting on eClass to do anything when it snows. 😉

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Our superintendent in Cherco said they would make a decision about losing days during February break on Jan 31st.  If we get a day off or two next week, that could screw us right before the deadline. I am going on a cruise over the break and really don't want to use my personal days for it. I grew up in FL, so I love the snow, but I want it to hold off until Feb 1st for selfish reasons. 🙂 Then we are all in the clear! 

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39 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Coming from a school system... they have heard. People talk... and you never know who is following in the background. 😉
What school system?

Marietta.  I do think they send something out every year around this time.

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28 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yep. But I still think that ought to just be days off.  Those kids aren't getting on eClass to do anything when it snows. 😉

I disagree, I don't like making the day up. My students do the work and it only takes a part of the day, they can still play in the snow.

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Getting more interesting with the Tuesday storm system. The Canadian model and European model are trying to spin up a new surface Low on the Arctic Front. This would increase the chance for snowfall accumulation. GFS keeps it all post frontal precip. Feels like a soap opera now. This run pretty much tells me to expect more changes in the coming days.

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11 hours ago, Chase said:

I am supposed to be going to a concert on Wednesday of next week, so if it’s going to happen it will most likely happen then! It is the only day I don’t want it to snow on, but don’t get me wrong, I’d still enjoy it. :classic_biggrin:

I like our chances! Lol. May the odds be forever in your favor! Lol

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39 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

You're ES, correct?

Yes, but my own children are in Middle and High school and they still have most of their day to play when it snows.  I do know that some teachers really pile on the work during DLD, that is a shame. 😕

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54 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Getting more interesting with the Tuesday storm system. The Canadian model and European model are trying to spin up a new surface Low on the Arctic Front. This would increase the chance for snowfall accumulation. GFS keeps it all post frontal precip. Feels like a soap opera now. This run pretty much tells me to expect more changes in the coming days.

"As The Models Churn" 🙂 

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1 minute ago, SlicNic13 said:

Alright, lets see some ensembles and graphics lol 

:classic_biggrin:

06Z GFS ensembles out to 16 days. Sure looks like decent chances to see some snow to me. And keep in mind, these locations and amounts will move all over the place between now and then, so view this as a wild guess at this point. Well...  22 wild guesses. 😉

gefs_snow_ens_nc_65-25.thumb.png.6412a5f9cd8050500df986d484f05ec9.png

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