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NorthGeorgiaWX

End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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Question Steve, how good is the Kuchera snowfall output at estimating ratios? Cause it makes things even better across N GA. Given the temps at 108 it could have some merit.

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1 minute ago, firefighter556 said:

So it's a good thing that there might be a low off of Texas ??

Very good thing as long as the cold is there. And for some at least it will be.

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I like the trends I'm seeing, there is a slow drift south to the precip, and the cold air arrives just a little quicker on this run. We just need to hold on to just a little precip for another 6 hours. 

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Question Steve, how good is the Kuchera snowfall output at estimating ratios? Cause it makes things even better across N GA. Given the temps at 108 it could have some merit.

Snap346062344.thumb.jpg.5d488575f40f700058c373c8640759b0.jpg

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Is this Tuesday night, Steve?  I'd still like to see it a touch further South.  The top of Dekalb County works for me.  😊

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2 minutes ago, LEmbs said:

Is this Tuesday night, Steve?  I'd still like to see it a touch further South.  The top of Dekalb County works for me.  😊

Tuesday middle of the day into the evening. 

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26 minutes ago, firefighter556 said:

So it's a good thing that there might be a low off of Texas ??

We need a low to track to our south along the coast. That is our prime track in winter. I would be happy if we could get more of a disturbance to ride along the front in just the right spot, and we still have that chance with this one. We're getting pretty close and soon the short range models will come into play. 

We are just now in range of the old NAM 12km, but there are some interesting differences between the 06Z run and the 12Z, but in particular, more moisture and a 6 hour difference in speed, slowly the precip down.

OLD - 06Z

nam_ref_nc_29.thumb.png.c20e1b0eab10a779c96139a86e483b4a.png

nam_ptype_slp_east_29.thumb.png.cada18fd4d0698137f08a99292ecc29b.png

 

NEW - 12Z

1747191752_nam_ref_nc_29(1).thumb.png.1b8d33a5ee04de7c01b5f343e86a87bf.png

768893461_nam_ptype_slp_east_29(1).thumb.png.7965a49014b94329a7073c1ecf00781c.png

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2 minutes ago, stevepolychronopolous said:

Euro is going crazy starting around noon on Feb. 2nd (192). Let's see how it finishes up at the 240 mark.

Kuchera ratios.

NOT A FORECAST

Snap346062345.thumb.jpg.fb49ba6720be33edaa8e5f437d82b14f.jpg

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Euro gives us the gulf storm as well just a few days later. That Feb 1st time period is the one that has had me very intrigued, and would love to start seeing some solid ensemble support grow for it.

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

That was a glorious model run right there.... Here’s to hoping it’s at least close to right. That makes the winter for every single one of us.

Yeah it would be awesome! However, I refuse to get excited because the EURO has been as back and forth as I’ve ever seen it

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

That was a glorious model run right there.... Here’s to hoping it’s at least close to right. That makes the winter for every single one of us.

Yep. 95% of the state getting snow and 75% over 1" would be wild...

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1 minute ago, Shannon said:

Yeah it would be awesome! However, I refuse to get excited because the EURO has been as back and forth as I’ve ever seen it

Me too. Kind of how I don't get excited no matter how much UGA is up on Bama :classic_unsure:

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27 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Kuchera ratios.

NOT A FORECAST

Snap346062345.thumb.jpg.fb49ba6720be33edaa8e5f437d82b14f.jpg

What is this??? and I feel like Buford will get nothing on the 30th 

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35 minutes ago, stevepolychronopolous said:

Euro is going crazy starting around noon on Feb. 2nd (192). Let's see how it finishes up at the 240 mark.

Any amount of winter weather could cause a lot of trouble for the area in that time frame. 

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14 minutes ago, stevepolychronopolous said:

Me too. Kind of how I don't get excited no matter how much UGA is up on Bama :classic_unsure:

To soon, man. To soon. ☹️

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