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End of January Winter Weather Possibilities

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5 minutes ago, GroceryStoreMan said:

When can we start to feel confident in the forecasts for amounts of snow. I know it's nice to see 3-6" but is that realistic for us in all seriousness.

For the Tuesday system I wouldn’t feel comfortable with exact amounts until Sunday/Monday. 3-6” is definitely possible for some, but it has to play out the way it did on the Euro. Sagging south, and developing a secondary low pressure. For now ignore amounts, and just focus on how the setup trends.

And for the potentially bigger system afterwards, it’s nothing more than something to watch out for for now. No confidence in how that will turn out until after we’re past the Tuesday/Wednesday system as that will have impacts down the road.

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12 minutes ago, GroceryStoreMan said:

When can we start to feel confident in the forecasts for amounts of snow. I know it's nice to see 3-6" but is that realistic for us in all seriousness.

 

5 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

I’m waiting until Steve says he’s excited. Because that’s when I feel okay to get excited!

This is exactly what I've been waiting to see. We need some additional model runs to verify, but we are REAL close.

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NWS seems rather uninterested in what the models are saying.... Based on this I’d definitely temper my expectations for now, and see if we can see any run to run continuity. 2 straight Euro runs were exactly the same for the mountains, but elsewhere it was a big shift.

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28 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

NWS seems rather uninterested in what the models are saying.... Based on this I’d definitely temper my expectations for now, and see if we can see any run to run continuity. 2 straight Euro runs were exactly the same for the mountains, but elsewhere it was a big shift.

Does this feel like another Feb 12, 2014?

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35 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

NWS seems rather uninterested in what the models are saying.... Based on this I’d definitely temper my expectations for now, and see if we can see any run to run continuity. 2 straight Euro runs were exactly the same for the mountains, but elsewhere it was a big shift.

You got to kidding 🙃

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6 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

You got to kidding 🙃

Nope. Just not enough consistency across models for them to jump in with both feet on something like this. It was one great run on the Euro guys, but expecting exactly that to come to fruition would be unwise at this point. Euro very well could be on to something, or it could be wrong. I expect the NWS to slow play this one until we get closer. Doesn’t mean anything. Just means for now, confidence is not high enough to start sounding alarms.

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Downplaying by the media, the sudden drop in temps we are expecting-- should it began to snow we will have the same situation.  Except timing maybe..i have not looked closely on when it all is thought to begin

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As I have said I am not biting....so far there is no snow in my forecast.  I live in Athens and work in Lithonia just outside of Atlanta.  So interest for me is from Atlanta to Athens and I want both areas to be hit or it can just stay away.  See new tactic....

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Nope. Just not enough consistency across models for them to jump in with both feet on something like this. It was one great run on the Euro guys, but expecting exactly that to come to fruition would be unwise at this point. Euro very well could be on to something, or it could be wrong. I expect the NWS to slow play this one until we get closer. Doesn’t mean anything. Just means for now, confidence is not high enough to start sounding alarms.

According to Meteoroligists i am watching who are NOT JUST READING VERBATIM NWS words, but are actual METS with minds, they say this is a ANA front, not a Kata front meaning the cold is not chasing the moisture.  It is all now just up to how much moisture.  According to Huntsville Jason Simpsson early this morn he was saying .01 TO .04  Now 10-1 means 1-4..  But the NAM is saying it might be more moisture with it...  So my thoughts are we won't get anything from our local mets until it is a surety, by that time many have turned their media off

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Just now, RickyD said:

Downplaying by the media, the sudden drop in temps we are expecting-- should it began to snow we will have the same situation.  Except timing maybe..i have not looked closely on when it all is thought to begin

That was very different storm in terms of setup, and I don’t remember much about how the media handled it, because typically I tend to ignore them anyway so I’m not sure. I do know that was an unusually bad forecast from the NWS with that storm because of the warm nose. They overdid the snow forecast pretty much area wide. 

NWS Atlanta has a good write up on that system here.

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/20140212_winterstorm

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1 minute ago, RickyD said:

According to Meteoroligists i am watching who are NOT JUST READING VERBATIM NWS words, but are actual METS with minds, they say this is a ANA front, not a Kata front meaning the cold is not chasing the moisture.  It is all now just up to how much moisture.  According to Huntsville Jason Simpsson early this morn he was saying .01 TO .04  Now 10-1 means 1-4..  But the NAM is saying it might be more moisture with it...  So my thoughts are we won't get anything from our local mets until it is a surety, by that time many have turned their media off

I’m just speaking directly from the Forecasters discussions for both Peachtree city and GSP. There is not enough confidence in the models for right now and they are right. Euro and GFS are very different. Ensemble support isn’t extremely high either. NWS is slowplaying this, and I think they are right to for now. Plenty of time to wait things out before any advisory products are needed. 

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11 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

As I have said I am not biting....so far there is no snow in my forecast.  I live in Athens and work in Lithonia just outside of Atlanta.  So interest for me is from Atlanta to Athens and I want both areas to be hit or it can just stay away.  See new tactic....

NWS gives us a 20% Tuesday night. I think if we do see anything it'll be too brief to really matter but you gotta take what you can get living here.

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NWS website give Pickens a 70% chance of snow/rain on Tuesday as of right now. Either way, this snow lover has his emergency bag packed in case he gets stuck at work! Just in case....

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I agree on the advisory!!  Completely.  But to completely leave the idea out of accumulation out of your forecast means people look 3-5 days ahead and say== just another day in the south and they fail to listen when the advisory IS ISSUED..  They say another fail!

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11 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

As I have said I am not biting....so far there is no snow in my forecast.  I live in Athens and work in Lithonia just outside of Atlanta.  So interest for me is from Atlanta to Athens and I want both areas to be hit or it can just stay away.  See new tactic....

I understand your feelings here, but that is one of the hardest areas in this state to get snow so it just doesn’t work that way. I hate it, but that’s just the truth. I lived in Athens for quite a few years so I know how much it sucks. This system can still  get snow over there. And the 2nd one if it works out is a better chance.

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3 minutes ago, Athens said:

NWS gives us a 20% Tuesday night. I think if we do see anything it'll be too brief to really matter but you gotta take what you can get living here.

It sounds like a repeat of last year where ATL got a good storm and we got (yet another) cold rain with a flurry or two right at the end that melted by lunchtime.

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The mountains in NW AND NE GA play havoc on i85 communities....  Cad is there friends

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I understand your feelings here, but that is one of the hardest areas in this state to get snow so it just doesn’t work that way. I hate it, but that’s just the truth. I lived in Athens for quite a few years so I know how much it sucks. This system can still  get snow over there. And the 2nd one if it works out is a better chance.

Out of curiosity, what makes it so hard? I've never heard anyone explain it before and would love to know why.

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1 minute ago, RickyD said:

I agree on the advisory!!  Completely.  But to completely leave the idea out of accumulation out of your forecast means people look 3-5 days ahead and say== just another day in the south and they fail to listen when the advisory IS ISSUED..  They say another fail!

Well in my opinion then that is a failure on the people’s part in understanding the information being disseminated. Cause that’s just not how forecasting works. You can’t always have high confidence that far in advance. I expect their wording will change quickly if more model runs come in with support for the euro. 

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4 minutes ago, Rioderreiser said:

Out of curiosity, what makes it so hard? I've never heard anyone explain it before and would love to know why.

1 or 2 degrees either direction could be the difference between a cold rain and several inches of snow. Everything has to be just right, and it could still change in the hours leading up to an event. I'm sure Chuck or Steve will explain it better, but a lot of it probably has to do with blocking from the mountains as well. On the model shown earlier, you can see that the change of snow to mix correlates with the location of the higher parts of the foothills. 

Edited by rwarren5
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