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January 28, Monday - Special Winter Weather Edition

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Good Monday morning. 24 hours away now, so we're going to be watching the trends in observations today. We are now in more of a NOWCast mode and leaving most of the models behind, while gaining a few others. 

The models trended slightly drier on the overnight runs, and I think that has as much to do with speed of the front as anything. The moisture dries a little quicker while the cold air is a little slower, so all in all , the system is moving quicker, and reduces snow amounts some. 

Since this is now coming in much earlier in the morning, I suspect the metro Atlanta schools will be closed tomorrow due to the likelihood of black ice in the wake of whatever precip we get, and no doubt that schools will be closed in the NW corner of the state and along the mountainous area to the north of Atlanta. 

So unless things change a lot (and they probably won't), here's the way it looks right now.

Quote

Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton-Gwinnett-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-
Clayton-
Including the cities of Calhoun, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Rome,
Cartersville, Gainesville, Marietta, Atlanta, Lawrenceville,
Carrollton, Douglasville, East Point, Decatur, Newnan,
and Peachtree City
241 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...
Snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches,

with locally higher amounts possible in the higher terrain of
northern Georgia.

* WHERE...
Mainly along and north of a line from Franklin to

Jonesboro to Gainesville.

* WHEN...
From late Monday night through Tuesday evening.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
Travel could be very difficult. The

hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,
sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

StormTotalSnow-28.thumb.png.d3f8f704adbf2abf2395ca7e63f78251.png

More info from the regional forecast offices

AFD Morristown NWS

AFD Birmingham NWS

AFD Huntsville NWS

AFD Atlanta NWS

AFD Greenville-Spartanburg NWS

 

Here's more information from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

Quote

As a cold front marches across the region late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, strong cold air advection will occur across
portions of MS/AL/GA/TN/NC. Enhanced upper level divergence
supports lift that is aided by a mid-level vorticity maximum
passing through.  This combination will provide an opportunity for
precip continuing in the post-frontal environment. There appears
to be a narrow window for accumulating snow before the mid levels
quickly dry out in the wake of the system.  Probabilities of
accumulations of 2" will primarily be found from central MS into
northern AL, northwest GA into central/eastern TN, western NC and
then into the central Appalachians. In the higher terrain areas of
eastern TN, far northern GA and western NC accumulations up to 4"
are possible. 

Lack of low pressure development on the front and the progressive
motion of the 700 mb wave limits the potential for higher snow
amounts.  East of the mountains from the Carolinas to VA/MD/PA,
the precip begins as rain with post-frontal cooling allowing a
transition to snow.  A longer duration as cooler temps provides
gradually increasing snow amounts heading towards northeast PA,
where several inches are possible.

Snap346062379-28.thumb.jpg.c711c1117a3a8dbd9f98c2151ab1091a.jpgsref_snow_1_prob_se_17-28.thumb.png.d871a5f44f2b0458f34a9965585548e8.pngcmc_snow_acc_atl_9-28.thumb.png.3543b4c8e5c18422053ac366252e8d30.pnghires_snow_atl_49-28.png.36fd94b2e7bf1784992de8f2134d0a77.pngnam_3hr_snow_acc_atl_17-28.thumb.png.858d562c887b044d68a29d0525bcb8d0.pngecmwf_tsnow_atl_8-28.thumb.png.9a26ae57f958395256ca36ab26afd90b.pnggfs_6hr_snow_acc_atl_9-28.thumb.png.71c72ea32f3e780d07cd53b44a0549bd.pnggfs_6hr_snow_acc_atl_10-28.thumb.png.452af766b2a543ec5159eeafc9ede97e.png

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*sigh* I truly was hoping this was the big chance for snow. Not many times I'd prefer living in Rome or somewhere NW to Dacula, but today with this snow chance I wish I did. :(

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1 minute ago, Teamdmom said:

*sigh* I truly was hoping this was the big chance for snow. Not many times I'd prefer living in Rome or somewhere NW to Dacula, but today with this snow chance I wish I did. 😞

I hear you. So far this winter has been a huge disappointment but I'm still holding out hope. 

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1 hour ago, David said:

Joy nothing for Barrow co. 

I'm about 5 miles line of sight from the Barrow line here in Gwinnett. Your chances are not really any different from mine, so we're in this together. 

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58 minutes ago, Jeff9702 said:

Nothing for Buford... we just arnt doing good on this one.

Snow maps are guesses, never take them literally. 

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Quote

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW AND SNOW TUESDAY 
AND WILL THERE BE IMPACTS FROM BLACK ICE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS BROAD CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH 
QUICKLY. EVEN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP TIMING, OF ALL THINGS, 
THERE IS QUITE A DISPARITY IN MODEL TEMPS AS THE ROUND OF PRECIP 
MOVES THROUGH. OF COURSE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND ANY BLENDS 
THAT USE THEM WERE THROWN OUT DUE TO POOR PERFORMANCE WITH FRONTS 
WITH SUCH STRONG GRADIENTS. USED CMC, HIRESWARW, LOCAL WRF AND SOME 
OTHER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. EC RAW GRIDS TOO COURSE TEMPORALLY TO USE 
IN GFE, BUT ALSO SHOWS COOLER SFC TEMPS. GFS AND NAM HAVE CONTINUED 
TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER SFC TEMPS. THESE TEMPS ARE KEY TO PRODUCE 
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME. IN 
DOWNTOWN ATLANTA, CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 9-10A BEFORE ENDING 
AROUND NOON-1P. SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE PUSHES THINGS OUT EVEN 
FASTER THAN THIS. BASED ON ALL THIS, LOCAL TOOLS PRODUCING VERY 
SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS AS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS < 2 
INCHES WITH THE < 1 INCH LINE ABOUT 10-20MI NORTH OF THE 
CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER AND THE LINE OF NO SNOW DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF
I-85. TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY, HAVE PUSHED THE NO SNOW 
LINE AN ADDITIONAL 10-20MI SOUTH AND EAST AND BASED ADVISORY ON 
THIS. SOME QUESTION WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN TROUP CO 
(TEMPS NEVER GO BELOW 36F UNTIL WELL AFTER PRECIP ENDS), SO HAVE 
LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF > 2 INCHES LIKELY TO 
OCCUR IN HIGHER ELEVATION OF FAR NORTH GA BUT WOULD NOT BE 
SURPRISED TO SEE THOSE AMOUNTS EVEN IN ROME OR OTHER PARTS OF NW 
GA.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS REFREEZING OF LIQUID AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET AS 
TEMPS FALL BELOW 30F. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP ONLY EXPECTED 
TO BE 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST 1/2 OF STATE WITH LESSER 
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND WINDS IN THE 
AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE FOR REFREEZING IS LOW, HOWEVER THERE IS 
UNCERTAINTY. ALSO, SHELTERED AREAS CAN SEE MUCH LESS WIND AND 
EVAPORATION AND CAN ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND SEEPAGE OF WATER 
FROM NEARBY GROUNDS. 

 

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