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NorthGeorgiaWX

February Weather Discussion

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I will start out by saying that yes, we will warm up for the first 8-10 days, but I feel confident that we should go back to a winter pattern after that. 

 

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

tenor.gif.128ecc85ead013a133e58469a20dec06.gif

That’s totally what this winter has felt like 😂🤣😂 my kindergartener says that if the groundhog sees his shadow this weekend that we get two whole weeks of snow...

 

I haven’t the heart to correct her bc I’d be totally okay with that!😂

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Bastardi

Quote

As it is, this is a cold pattern for most of the nation. The three things that have to happen for this to turn into the extreme cold and stormy pattern I think is reloading for mid-February to mid-March, centered farther to the south and east than the current outbreak.

  1. MJO co-operation.
  2. SOI drop.
  3. Strongest positive into Greenland.

I think all three are coming. If you look at Chicago, even with the warm up, the next 15 days will average out 4°F below normal. NYC will be even at or below normal with the warmth.

The message is this is not an end of winter warm up. This will be for a limited interval and widespread cold will follow for the nation. The most extreme cold should shift to the southeast with time as the models correct.

 

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You probably have already mentioned this somewhere today Steve but this is not normally a quiet day in weather.

 

1.. 2013   Adairsville Tornado

2. 2014 Snow on the ground and it was 0 degrees this morning and some below zero temps around

Edited by RickyD
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32 minutes ago, RickyD said:

You probably have already mentioned this somewhere today Steve but this is not normally a quiet day in weather.

 

1.. 2013   Adairsville Tornado

2. 2014 Snow on the ground and it was 0 degrees this morning and some below zero temps around

And Snow Jam 2

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_2014_winter_storm_summary.php

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The 12z Euro brings back major cold starting on the 7th. The GFS below has a similar look but not as cold. The GFS even has snow over south Georgia.

gfs_t2m_a_f_lower48_32-30.thumb.png.be84f2a30f5f7b59167c9a446dc63be2.png
gfs_t2m_a_f_lower48_37-30.thumb.png.5384e0200aba3c8e7e4b0972ae57b24d.pnggfs_6hr_snow_acc_lower48_35-30.thumb.png.b2daba2b17d79c3c0bf8b588c8721665.png

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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_41.pngFv3 GFS has an insane ice storm! Good thing it's the Fv3. 😂

Edited by Athens
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GFS hinting at the idea as well. The wedge has yet to perform well for us though. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_42.png

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Yep interesting to see both with that ice storm. Too far out though, GFS. I don’t believe youuuuuu!

 

*secretly hoping we don’t have an ice storm brewing bc those suck*

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It must be that we all are desperate.  I come on to post and see we are all looking at the same time frame.  Steve is it worth your time to do some investigation to check this out?   It is the suggestion i am asking about, and not the bias of a model.  It looks there could be a system sweeping underneath us with cold air present on the North side?

All 3 models are suggesting it  Canadian GFS AND FV3, don't know about the EURO

Edited by RickyD
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Josh Johnson has a great tweet about model watching by the Mets and missing the meteorological signs

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5 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

Wow, that looks like a Van Gogh painting...

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Wouldn't the 2/7 system be similar to the system we just had with the cold chasing the moisture or would it be different? At this point I'd rather have more rain than ice.

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40 minutes ago, Brooke said:

Wouldn't the 2/7 system be similar to the system we just had with the cold chasing the moisture or would it be different? At this point I'd rather have more rain than ice.

I wouldn't take any setup that you see now as what will happen. Many changes to go. But yes, at the moment it is an anafront setup.

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