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NorthGeorgiaWX

February Weather Discussion

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I wanted to share a few snippets from Bastardi's blog post I find interesting.  I don't normally share this much and hope he doesn't mind, but when terms like "Grand Plantary Wave" start getting thrown around... it's worth mentioning.  And of course, take all of this with a big block of salt. 

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In response to the question, "Where did I get the term Grand Planetary Wave"? It was in post-March 1993 storm analysis, I would like to give credit to the author but I can't remember who it was.

As I remember, it's an alignment of a trough within 5 degrees of a longitude from the Pole to the tropic of Cancer. At times it can extend over the pole 180 degrees away from where it in the western hemisphere into Asia, The implication is that a lot of cold is aiming itself over the pole and at the US. Negative NAO need not apply for the cold in many cases.

Let's look at this in the northern hemisphere background, I pulled this out a few weeks ago cause I was tipped off to it by the Monmouth Meteo Monster. It was a good tip . Look at the north-south extension of the trough from the pole south into the gulf (1/24/19)

compday_7OW0diqhQj.gif.4694539ad52ac7a1f25dd5d068b44d7e.gif

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... the reason these are so dangerous is that the lining up for a few days means cold is being injected into the trough and the further south the injection, the more deviation from normal you can have. Bundle the energy and boom.

Of course, the 93 version was the best of all worlds, severe cold, blizzard, but the same setup on a roidian scale. (Storm of The Century - 1993)

compday_590SvdsP9L.gif.64cd8bff94f2d23f2d9ea1e2045f024e.gif

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So why am I excited about this potential?

Let's look at the euro ensembles day 10

eps_z500a_nh_41(21).png.d49627bb67182e1a539e960a530ee23b.png

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Given the nature of ensemble's, where they are going, to argue about speed and position, that is a pretty darn impressive lining up. Tho not perfect, the negatives actually extend over to the other side of the pole. Slow down the move into the west coast or deepen the trough a bit more like phase 2 gives and what happens if you bundle the energy. So when I am seeing that, and using the other analogs, we say there is a threat of the extreme event. I would love it to be heavy snow for people that have not shared in the snow wealth, and enough cold to make my point. Perhaps it will not happen, but its not wishcasting given known examples similar. Sometimes though ideas don't work out. The point is that again the potential is there.

 

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Bastardi is always very snow hungry but I hope his predictions come true to at least a small extent, I doubt we'll have a huge blizzard but something would be better than nothing.

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Yes , he has a snow bias... just like me. 🙂 We're trying to find any hint of winter weather that we can. 🙂 But at this point, we have nothing else to hang our hat on.

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52 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

7 Day rainfall amounts through 7 am this morning.

1824832804_nws_precip_georgia_7(2).thumb.png.ba403ead1aead516e355036b8c3b593c.png

wow thats quite a gradient.  I can attest to the map.  i have a 6 day total of 6.64

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On 2/20/2019 at 9:37 AM, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Whew... just finished all of the winter anomaly images. That's a lot of work! 🙂

For each decade, I've added summary images for Dec, Jan, Feb, and the decade avg. I've also added three pages, Dec, Jan, Feb, so all Dec's can be seen on one page, all Jan's on a page, etc. 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_temp_anom.php

 

thanks for all these by the way.  really points out how variable everything is.  

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11 hours ago, SouthSideDahlonega said:

wow that's quite a gradient.  I can attest to the map.  i have a 6 day total of 6.64

I said the same thing to my wife last night. Talking about the have's and the have not's... :classic_smile:

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I said the same thing to my wife last night. Talking about the have's and the have not's... :classic_smile:

Will you do an update on severe weather chances when you do the daily weather post?

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1 hour ago, Asperman1 said:

Will you do an update on severe weather chances when you do the daily weather post?

Here's the outlook. The area for the worst of the bad weather has shrunk and moved west.

GA_swody2-22.png.080ed7aea60681c33ff3b20ad129f5bc.png

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SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
The wet pattern will continue through the short term, mainly for
north GA. Some drying is possible early Saturday with pops dropping
below likely category, however this will change Saturday afternoon
as moisture increases ahead of a strong cold front that will be
moving into the Tennessee Valley late Saturday.

All models bring a backdoor front into the CWA this afternoon,
however they differ on the strength. Will lean more toward the
NAM/SREF resolution which keeps northeast GA much cooler late this
afternoon and Saturday. With plenty of upglide over the wedge,
clouds, light rain or drizzle can be expected across north GA. South
of the wedge, temperatures will warm well above normal with dry
conditions.

 

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I believe we have one more chance around the 4th. 

Oh... good morning! 

Good morning! Can you give us more details? I love the excitement even if it doesn’t happen! 🙂 

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's the outlook. The area for the worst of the bad weather has shrunk and moved west.

GA_swody2-22.png.080ed7aea60681c33ff3b20ad129f5bc.png

WOOO and how does Sunday Look?

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4 hours ago, Christine said:

Good morning! Can you give us more details? I love the excitement even if it doesn’t happen! 🙂 

Both the euro and GFS have been showing a system that clips north Georgia around that time period. It's a long shot but right now it's all we have.  How's school going? 🙂

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Sunday is even weaker.

GA_swody3.png

Double WOO, is Saturday still the same, or has it changed 

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European model for the March 6 period i have been referring to.  More evidence of some system setting up with enough cold air present.  I am a little more hopeful

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022412_240_480_215.thumb.png.effd204d45abd98892c91ee123556505.png

Edited by RickyD
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20 minutes ago, RickyD said:

European model for the March 6 period i have been referring to.  More evidence of some system setting up with enough cold air present.  I am a little more hopeful

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022412_240_480_215.thumb.png.effd204d45abd98892c91ee123556505.png

Going to be 4-7 days in early March I think where the potential is definitely there for a nice snow.  For now though, I’ll err on the side of how things have gone this winter with things looking good at this range, and then quickly falling apart. Longshot for now, but one last threat to watch at the very least.

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10 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yep... hope is still alive.

 

Snap346062465-24.jpg

Keep it coming!!!!  I love all these updates, maybe my hopes will be dashed, but maybe they won't!!!!!!

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I'll pass on more precip, wintry or otherwise. The ground is still soaked and my family's property is a swamp. Lake Lanier hit the third highest recorded level this morning, and we're just over a foot away from hitting the highest recorded lake levels ever.

image.png.119ab5ca78b7c24f8b2232552eac15a0.png

 

image.png.3be44042c6f5f549d77312a4cc349e0c.png

Edited by rwarren5
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