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February Weather Discussion


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I wanted to share a few snippets from Bastardi's blog post I find interesting.  I don't normally share this much and hope he doesn't mind, but when terms like "Grand Plantary Wave" start getting thrown around... it's worth mentioning.  And of course, take all of this with a big block of salt. 

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In response to the question, "Where did I get the term Grand Planetary Wave"? It was in post-March 1993 storm analysis, I would like to give credit to the author but I can't remember who it was.

As I remember, it's an alignment of a trough within 5 degrees of a longitude from the Pole to the tropic of Cancer. At times it can extend over the pole 180 degrees away from where it in the western hemisphere into Asia, The implication is that a lot of cold is aiming itself over the pole and at the US. Negative NAO need not apply for the cold in many cases.

Let's look at this in the northern hemisphere background, I pulled this out a few weeks ago cause I was tipped off to it by the Monmouth Meteo Monster. It was a good tip . Look at the north-south extension of the trough from the pole south into the gulf (1/24/19)

compday_7OW0diqhQj.gif.4694539ad52ac7a1f25dd5d068b44d7e.gif

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... the reason these are so dangerous is that the lining up for a few days means cold is being injected into the trough and the further south the injection, the more deviation from normal you can have. Bundle the energy and boom.

Of course, the 93 version was the best of all worlds, severe cold, blizzard, but the same setup on a roidian scale. (Storm of The Century - 1993)

compday_590SvdsP9L.gif.64cd8bff94f2d23f2d9ea1e2045f024e.gif

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So why am I excited about this potential?

Let's look at the euro ensembles day 10

eps_z500a_nh_41(21).png.d49627bb67182e1a539e960a530ee23b.png

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Given the nature of ensemble's, where they are going, to argue about speed and position, that is a pretty darn impressive lining up. Tho not perfect, the negatives actually extend over to the other side of the pole. Slow down the move into the west coast or deepen the trough a bit more like phase 2 gives and what happens if you bundle the energy. So when I am seeing that, and using the other analogs, we say there is a threat of the extreme event. I would love it to be heavy snow for people that have not shared in the snow wealth, and enough cold to make my point. Perhaps it will not happen, but its not wishcasting given known examples similar. Sometimes though ideas don't work out. The point is that again the potential is there.

 

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The 12z Euro brings back major cold starting on the 7th. The GFS below has a similar look but not as cold. The GFS even has snow over south Georgia.

The CPC monthly outlook seems to always be off. They try hard though. They usually get better as the month goes on, and by the end of the month, perfect forecast. 😜 The Euro Weeklies show normal

Bastardi  

Posted Images

On 2/20/2019 at 9:37 AM, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Whew... just finished all of the winter anomaly images. That's a lot of work! 🙂

For each decade, I've added summary images for Dec, Jan, Feb, and the decade avg. I've also added three pages, Dec, Jan, Feb, so all Dec's can be seen on one page, all Jan's on a page, etc. 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_temp_anom.php

 

thanks for all these by the way.  really points out how variable everything is.  

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SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
The wet pattern will continue through the short term, mainly for
north GA. Some drying is possible early Saturday with pops dropping
below likely category, however this will change Saturday afternoon
as moisture increases ahead of a strong cold front that will be
moving into the Tennessee Valley late Saturday.

All models bring a backdoor front into the CWA this afternoon,
however they differ on the strength. Will lean more toward the
NAM/SREF resolution which keeps northeast GA much cooler late this
afternoon and Saturday. With plenty of upglide over the wedge,
clouds, light rain or drizzle can be expected across north GA. South
of the wedge, temperatures will warm well above normal with dry
conditions.

 

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4 hours ago, Christine said:

Good morning! Can you give us more details? I love the excitement even if it doesn’t happen! 🙂 

Both the euro and GFS have been showing a system that clips north Georgia around that time period. It's a long shot but right now it's all we have.  How's school going? 🙂

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20 minutes ago, RickyD said:

European model for the March 6 period i have been referring to.  More evidence of some system setting up with enough cold air present.  I am a little more hopeful

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022412_240_480_215.thumb.png.effd204d45abd98892c91ee123556505.png

Going to be 4-7 days in early March I think where the potential is definitely there for a nice snow.  For now though, I’ll err on the side of how things have gone this winter with things looking good at this range, and then quickly falling apart. Longshot for now, but one last threat to watch at the very least.

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I'll pass on more precip, wintry or otherwise. The ground is still soaked and my family's property is a swamp. Lake Lanier hit the third highest recorded level this morning, and we're just over a foot away from hitting the highest recorded lake levels ever.

image.png.119ab5ca78b7c24f8b2232552eac15a0.png

 

image.png.3be44042c6f5f549d77312a4cc349e0c.png

Edited by rwarren5
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