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NorthGeorgiaWX

February Weather Discussion

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1 hour ago, rwarren5 said:

I'll pass on more precip, wintry or otherwise. The ground is still soaked and my family's property is a swamp. Lake Lanier hit the third highest recorded level this morning, and we're just over a foot away from hitting the highest recorded lake levels ever.

I agree, but I don’t think that option is on the table in the current pattern we’re in. So I’ll take a snow with a nice slow soaking melt over a heavy rain. Reduce that runoff effect as much as possible. 

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Looks like I am going to pay my quarter and jumped on the roller coaster one last time before they close up the winter park.  It will either be a fun 7 days or the models will shut the ride down early.   Let the fun begin. 

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Well, the Euro and now the GFS are flirting with some snow for north Georgia next week. Starting to get my interest now... :classic_smile:

NOT A FORECAST

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_atl_40.thumb.png.d8cae7f15636a0eb87a721e042542d9f.png

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25 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Lots of precip over the last 7 days

I "think" that 9.99 is either my Cocorahs or the nws gauge I maintain.   i feel sheepish pointing this out, but, darnit, i'm proud!

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Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 6h6 hours ago

 
 

Todays 12z GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are all showing a winter storm threat in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. They differ on the timing, p-types and amounts, so still very uncertain on details. But confidence increasing that the modeled threat may be legit. #ncwx

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This setup looks to be different than any except the big snow that happened in December.  It appears the cold will be settled in, and the moisture will be available--  but just where will the low set up and pass.  All season they have been pretty well NE of us.  This will be south of us, but just how far ?  That will determine amounts and who gets any snow....

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A large hole in the sun's atmosphere is facing Earth and sending a stream of solar wind in our direction. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are likely when the gaseous material arrives on Feb. 27th and 28th. Solar wind speeds could top 500 km/s (1.1 million mph), sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle and possibly even in US states along a line from Maine to Washington. Visit Spaceweather.com for updates.

Those dark areas in the image are coronal holes in the sun's atmosphere. From those holes come the solar winds.  These coronal holes are larger when the sun is in a solar minimum, like the one we're headed into. 

latest_1024_0193.thumb.jpg.8bd75d57d3c0d35229bb4a7f78668c8a.jpg

 

And when the sun gets quiet, the sunspots go away. Right now we have a spotless sun.

latest.thumb.jpg.1bf0bc8f1454b88eb11f744ef091a492.jpg

 

I have a page devoted to space weather, so if you're interested, please check it out!

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space.php

Oh... and a page describing the various levels of space weather alerts

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space_warning_levels.php

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Those dark areas in the image are coronal holes in the sun's atmosphere. From those holes come the solar winds.  These coronal holes are larger when the sun is in a solar minimum, like the one we're headed into. 

latest_1024_0193.thumb.jpg.8bd75d57d3c0d35229bb4a7f78668c8a.jpg

 

And when the sun gets quiet, the sunspots go away. Right now we have a spotless sun.

latest.thumb.jpg.1bf0bc8f1454b88eb11f744ef091a492.jpg

 

I have a page devoted to space weather, so if you're interested, please check it out!

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space.php

Oh... and a page describing the various levels of space weather alerts

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space_warning_levels.php

The sun's affect on Earth is interesting. It's hard to imagine maximums and minimums don't affect Earth's climate much more than they are given credit for. 

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2 hours ago, Wendy4 said:

Any updates on the system next week?

Still too far out, models continue to oscillate. At this point I still favor what we’ve seen all year, good looks a week+ out fading away as we get closer. I hate it, but thus far that’s been the reality and until proven otherwise I’m not getting sucked in on this one. 

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Still too far out, models continue to oscillate. At this point I still favor what we’ve seen all year, good looks a week+ out fading away as we get closer. I hate it, but thus far that’s been the reality and until proven otherwise I’m not getting sucked in on this one. 

if i lived in N AL i would prepare for at least an inch or two.  The models (all) have been consistent in laying a swath across the nw corner of Ga back in al and MS.  Sometimes the swath includes more of ga or less, but has been consistent with the area in AL and MS westward.

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

if i lived in N AL i would prepare for at least an inch or two.  The models (all) have been consistent in laying a swath across the nw corner of Ga back in al and MS.  Sometimes the swath includes more of ga or less, but has been consistent with the area in AL and MS westward.

The thing is right now that is still a long lead time. Yes N AL and central TN look good as they have all winter with these post frontal setups like the Sunday-Monday wave will be. For most of us, that won’t cut it without some changes.

What I’m interested in mainly is midweek, but the GFS and FV3 have both completely lost that storm so for now there’s nothing to do but wait.

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

The thing is right now that is still a long lead time. Yes N AL and central TN look good as they have all winter with these post frontal setups like the Sunday-Monday wave will be. For most of us, that won’t cut it without some changes.

What I’m interested in mainly is midweek, but the GFS and FV3 have both completely lost that storm so for now there’s nothing to do but wait.

Is it post frontal or is it a low cutting underneath?  I thought i was looking at a system with the low underneath and not the cold front type systems where the cold is chasing the moisture?

Edited by RickyD

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27 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Is it post frontal or is it a low cutting underneath?  I thought i was looking at a system with the low underneath and not the cold front type systems where the cold is chasing the moisture?

Sunday/Monday looks frontal. How the waves develop along that front matters in terms of snow placement. For example last nights Euro pretty much didn’t have any snow south of Nashville on the first system. And a light, late bloomer on the 2nd one. Today’s Euro says the same for the first one and followed along with the GFS with the second one going poof. There is potential here for snow, but much like the rest of winter it is far from ideal and we’re gonna need some things to work out in our favor and frankly in my opinion it’s a longshot.

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Service Change Notice 19-12
National Weather Service Headquarters
Silver Spring MD
805 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS partners and NWS employees

From: David R. Novak Acting Director National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Subject: GFS Version 15 model implementation schedule is paused until a date to be determined. Testing continues for the Global Forecasting System (GFS) Version 15 - using the Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) conducted, and continues to conduct, extensive evaluation and verification of the model. The GFS with the FV3 core shows continued improvement over the legacy GFS for many forecast parameters.

EMC is aware of two issues:

  1. -The snow depth and the water equivalent of snow depth at the surface have unrealistically large values when precipitation occurs in environments with low-level temperature profiles close to freezing. Techniques that use either of these variables for deriving snowfall will exhibit excessive snowfall values.
  2. -The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere that became more prominent after late September 2018. EMC is investigating both issues and any necessary changes will be tested.

After sufficient testing and evaluation an announcement will be sent when NCEP Central Operations (NCO) is ready to start the formal 30-day IT Stability Test. The model implementation schedule is currently paused during the investigation. In the interim, there will be no change to the availability of products from the operational GFS model and real-time parallel. Feedback from the community examining the model output has been crucial in improving the model. We encourage continued examination of the real-time parallel and retrospective data that can be accessed as highlighted below:

  • -The output data from the Global Forecasting System (GFS) version 15 is available on our public web servers at: https://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/
  • -Imagery from the GFS Version 15 are available at the evaluation site: https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ (under "Model Guidance" select Model Type -- GFS)
  • -EMC has also conducted retrospective experiments covering the past 3.5 years for a comprehensive evaluation of the model. We continue to examine real-time parallel runs. Evaluation of both the real-time and retrospective parallels can be found at: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs This site includes relevant links to various evaluation and verification web sites.

For questions regarding test products from GFS Version 15, please contact: Jason Levit EMC Verification, Post-processing and Product Generation Branch Chief Jason.Levit@noaa.gov

For questions regarding the data flow aspects of these data sets, please contact: ncep.list.pmb-dataflow@noaa.gov

For media inquiries, please contact: Lauren Gaches, NWS Public Affairs lauren.gaches@noaa.gov 301-683-1327

National Service Change Notices are online at: https://www.weather.gov/notification NNNN

 

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