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NorthGeorgiaWX

February Weather Discussion

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If it's not going to snow, at least it's enjoyable weather. Could be 40's and rain lol

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I’m jealous of y’all. It finally warms up in Georgia and I’m camping out in Johnson Valley, CA all week for a race. High in the mid to upper 40s, low in the 30s, with 45+ mph wind gusts sending dust across the valley. 

I’m not counting out the winter, but I’m not counting on a good snow either. I think if we do get something, it will be a surprise. Either way, I’ll take the warm sunny weather over cold and rainy. 

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So Steve do you believe that there will be a cool down middle to end of next week?

 

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12z Fv3 really drops the hammer... I can't trust it though as it always seems kinda bullish. 

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If we could get some low pressure systems tracking a little further south we'd be in business but it's doubtful considering the luck we've had so far this winter.

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6 minutes ago, Brooke said:

If we could get some low pressure systems tracking a little further south we'd be in business but it's doubtful considering the luck we've had so far this winter.

I feel like knowing Georgia weather, I wouldn't be surprised if some of us see some last minute flurries right when it's supposed to be warming up. Lol bipolar a** weather 😂

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4 minutes ago, Athens said:

I feel like knowing Georgia weather, I wouldn't be surprised if some of us see some last minute flurries right when it's supposed to be warming up. Lol bipolar a** weather 😂

I wouldn't be surprised! Let's just go for a repeat of the March '93 blizzard while we're at it. :classic_laugh:

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7 minutes ago, Brooke said:

I wouldn't be surprised! Let's just go for a repeat of the March '93 blizzard while we're at it. :classic_laugh:

Right! :classic_love:36f3bfe7-fc54-4bb2-b208-857f656c4d8c_tex

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After watching the GFSv3 cave this morning! I’m out! Nothing looking good through day 10 or longer on all the models! See yall next year, or a few rainy, wedge days in April, with highs in the low 40s, as happens every spring when -NAO finally goes negative and is useless 

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50 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

Is this what has popped up for next Friday on the 06z run of the GFS?

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This doesn’t sound good!! No sugar coating from DT!!!!

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It has indeed been a tough winter for forecast meteorologists. Many cases of weather models inadequate to the task, an -NAO signal that never really did show up, and the recent appearance of a strong, flat heat ridge over the Greater Antilles. Yes, there have been some amazing cases of cold temperatures in January and again recently. But aside from occasional pop-up of ridging into Alaska, the necessary strong of blocking signatures across the Arctic Islands and Greenland has been missing. Which tells me and you that the analog platform, which worked so well through December, is now not an effective predictor of apparent weather in North America.
 
But a funny thing happened late in the week. All of the schemes and their ensemble members developed a Grand Banks Vortex (aka "50/50 Low") near or just off of Newfoundland in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods. Typically, the appearance of a strong negative height anomaly in this vicinity implies threats for cold advection as well as a major winter storm along the Eastern Seaboard. We know that the persistent subtropical jet stream, riding above the aforementioned heat ridge in the Caribbean Island belt, could supply energy and moisture to boost a storm running into the cAk anticyclone over eastern Canada. So while no real pressure indentations are seen in the depictions of model guidance, the proverbial "chance in Hades" looms in the background.
 
IF the gyre is real, IF there is a Greenland block and IF the ECMWF and GFS series are correct with drainage of the Canadian cold pool into the U.S., then winter will still have a pulse and might produce some fun times for snow and ice enthusiasts over the eastern states (as opposed to the currently active western half of the continent) between February 20 and March 9. The CFS model suite is especially aggressive, the ECMWF weeklies steadfast (although that predictor has been very wrong in many cases over the past two months), with threats for perhaps two intense Nor'easter scenarios. And lots of cold. Consider too that the El Nino episode is weaning, has now taken on a true Modoki appearance, and would favor a "late run" pattern with cold and frozen precipitation potential to the right of the Rocky Mountains, and especially the Atlantic Coastal Plain above Richmond VA.
 
I still believe that any chance for repeated wintry conditions will exit by Mid-March. But it would be really nice to get a couple of cases of bombogenesis in play with copious amounts of frozen precipitation along the Interstate 95 corridor, now would it not?
 
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 9:40 P.M. CT

 

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