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February Weather Discussion

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Not good.....Not good at all. That’s a dangerous amount of rain in normal conditions, but with our current saturation there is nowhere for this water to go except into our already swollen rivers.

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This has somewhat of a painful winter in the sense that, while intrusions of bitter cold and periods of heavy snow and ice have been seen in the U.S., the southern and eastern tiers have largely been left out of the "fun". There are always excuses present, and the one that stands out as viable is that recurrent, strong subtropical jet stream that did not behave in "typical" El Nino fashion. Usually a cold signal for forecasters, the warm and moist fetch from the equatorial Pacific Ocean has consistently made its run from Texas up through, and west of, the Appalachian Mountains. That alignment is a formula for "snow disappointment" along the Interstate 20 and 95 corridors. Yes, I mean Dallas TX, Atlanta GA, and Philadelphia PA.
 
With the clock running down, and the sun getting ever higher in the sky, our chances to see a truly synoptic scale Arctic intrusion and major winter storm of the "Miller A" type are decreasing sharply. Keep in mind that the calendar date for the equinox (March 21) is more useful in cold weather climatology than the start of "meteorological spring", March 1. This is because nature follows different rules than data storage, what with cold air aloft, chilled waters, and a deep snow cover to be gotten rid of. So if for some reason, luck or serendipity grants the Dixie states and Eastern Seaboard, there is still more than a month in which this "miracle of the flakes" could happen.
 
But I am honestly not optimistic about such a turn of fortune, for two reasons. The increased presence of a subtropical high, often tied to a developing La Nina, cannot be denied. Occasionally suppressed in the numerical model runs, the previous day set of numerical model runs had a possible James Bay vortex and extensive cold pretty much everywhere in the lower 48 states in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day period. The most recent guidance covering the longer term and next month shows the usual back-up, with warmer thermal anomalies reclaiming the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, it will be quite cold in the interior with another ridge build-up in Alaska, but there is no Greenland or Baffin Island block present to keep atmospheric heights low in the New England and Mid-Atlantic states. It seems quite likely that as a negative ENSO signal returns, possibly by the start of summer, that a wholesale warm-up will occur to the right of the Rocky Mountains.
 
Because that is what a Greater Antilles and Sargasso Sea subtropical high will turn into: a heat ridge of the "Southeast" type, and then a Great Smokies or Bermuda High. Would that not mean a warmer, albeit stormier, spring season? You bet.
 
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 9:05 P.M. CT

 

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We are getting within range of the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Here is Day 3 Outlook 
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_excessive_rain_disco.php

Quote

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...The low level jet and the associated moisture
transport vectors are expected to peak between 4 and 5
standardized anomalies ahead of the systemrainfall rates
increasing Tuesday night due to increase low level moisture in
addition to mid level shortwave energy sweeping in from the west. 
Aloft, the entrance region of a 160 kt to 180 kt jet will set up
increasing amounts of divergence/difluence by the end of Day
3...with increasing threat for flash flooding from either cell
training or multiple rounds of convection at any given spot.This is the beginning of a prolonged period of heavy to excessive
rainfall event which is expected to continue well beyond the end
of the Day 3 forecast.  For precipitation forecasts for Thursday
and beyond, refer to graphics and  from the WPC Medium
Range section.

 

99ewbg.gif.d687e96dd1989d245f0d400db3aa8009.gif

 

There is however, a continued shift of the axis of heaviest precipitation to the NW

1417033087_NCEPWPCPrecipitationundefinedundefined168-17.thumb.png.7f3362d36a78359c74c6aa7a4221d3e1.png

 
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Augh....we are in the process of getting estimates after our basement flooded around Christmas time.  We paid 25k to finish our basement 7 years ago and so far each company has quoted us about that much to fix the issues.  Praying we can keep the water out this time- at least all the carpet is already ripped out!

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1 hour ago, gatormom said:

Augh....we are in the process of getting estimates after our basement flooded around Christmas time.  We paid 25k to finish our basement 7 years ago and so far each company has quoted us about that much to fix the issues.  Praying we can keep the water out this time- at least all the carpet is already ripped out!

Oh no! That's terrible. I need a basement in my next home, but I don't need those kinds of issues. 

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1122 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS WEEK CONTINUE TO BE HIGH, 
WITH THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATING OVER SEVERAL ROUNDS. CURRENT 
TOTAL FORECAST AMOUNTS FOR THIS PERIOD RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 7 
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA, 
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE 
FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH 
OF I-85 AND I-20. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON 
AND TONIGHT IN NORTH GEORGIA WITH A BREAK DURING THE DAY 
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK.

.IMPACTS...
WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN OVERWHELM OR CLOG STORM 
DRAINS AND DITCHES WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING
AND ROAD PONDING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE THIS TIME OF YEAR AS 
FALLEN LEAVES BLOCK OR IMPEDE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. TAKE TIME AHEAD OF
THE RAIN TO CLEAR LEAVES AND DEBRIS FROM THESE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. 

FLOODING OF SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS LIKELY WITH 
THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SHOULD BE MONITORED 
CLOSELY. QUICKLY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALLER, FAST-RESPONDING CREEKS, AND MODERATE OR
HIGHER FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. 

.ACTIONS...
STAY ALERT TO CHANGING FORECASTS. A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS 
LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THIS WEEK FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
KNOW WHAT TO DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED, PARTICULARLY IF YOU LIVE 
NEAR A CREEK OR RIVER.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA. CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB UNDER
CURRENT WEATHER TO ACCESS THE LATEST RIVER STATE AND PRECIPITATION
INFORMATION. 

 

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1 minute ago, GaDawg said:

So does the FV3 see rain as snow......

fv3p_asnow_eus_12.png

That model sees everything as snow more than 3 days away. :classic_rolleyes:

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Well that is gonna be real fun when they put on online in March...

 

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54 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

Well that is gonna be real fun when they put on online in March...

 

It has a problem with surface temps more than anything. 

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I wanted to see how our temperatures have averaged, month by month, since 2000. These are high temperatures, I'll have low temps in another comment. The anomalies are in ºF. Also note, the colors of the scales don't really change, but the values assigned to a color do .  As terrible as these look, also realize these are fractions of a degree. 

What I find interesting, is that the summer months are either normal or cooler while the colder months are generally warmer.

JAN

01-jan_tmax.png.03829883d61f7e456337d0f528b1c711.png

 

FEB

02-Feb_tmax.png.50b776bad08ce9625fbfb6c972860f9a.png

 

MAR

03-Mar_tmax.png.51e969c57f5df1e8b5a563c439c410f3.png

 

APR

04-Apr_tmax.png.85d7f0d7fa0331629443b861d2fad40d.png

 

MAY

05-May_tmax.png.5ed96dbf30c11438d99bfe89dcbb90b7.png

 

JUN

06-Jun_tmax.png.4e9eba4b55ea7420ed4a93e30e23b411.png

 

JUL

07-Jul_tmax.png.61b4250ac10422f949291bc0826983a0.png

 

AUG

08-Aug_tmax.png.24ee246af6e2ac6e47c8030fc1c4a445.png

 

SEP

09-Sep_tmax.png.27e58b4960e035ca34f76da06eb56bed.png

 

OCT

10-Oct_tmax.png.dcd88fbfcc5f22306aa75bfd5a70fc58.png

 

NOV

11-Nov_tmax.png.851c3ac68472fc4f59d70e079dc038ca.png

 

DEC

12-Dec_tmax.png.2d87e08cceafa4a2ac1c3d3f96824ab9.png

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On 2/14/2019 at 9:08 PM, KingOfTheMountains said:

Exactly. I’m looking forward to some nice 60’s and 70’s days here in the mountains before it turns full on summer. We’ve got to get things to dry out some, the ground is way over saturated. Sadly next week just looks to get worse in that regard...

You live in Sky Valley...you don't really get a bad summer. Heck, in Rabun Gap, at my elevation, I don't either. Remember, we live where "spring goes to summer"

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1 hour ago, kshields8426 said:

You live in Sky Valley...you don't really get a bad summer. Heck, in Rabun Gap, at my elevation, I don't either. Remember, we live where "spring goes to summer"

Wrong person, I live just south of Clayton but either way you’re right. I’m just the kind of person who really isn’t comfortable when it gets over 80 so even here summers are hot lol. I prefer those So-Cal temps between 50 and 70.

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20 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

That model sees everything as snow more than 3 days away. :classic_rolleyes:

That and its snow accumulation product seems absolutely broken. Even in places where it’s showing 38 degree rain on the surface map, it’s adding snow to the accumulations.

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On the topic of California snowfall, I saw this today and thought it was pretty cool. Shows what a nearly winter long raging pacific jet running into elevation can do.

 

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16 hours ago, firefighter556 said:

Well its official. Glenn Burns just called winter.. no snow is going to happen lol... well bring on the 70's 

Larry Cosgrove did the same this weekend! What a horrible winter!🤮🤮

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21 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Wrong person, I live just south of Clayton but either way you’re right. I’m just the kind of person who really isn’t comfortable when it gets over 80 so even here summers are hot lol. I prefer those So-Cal temps between 50 and 70.

Ahhh, still, our summers are nice. Did see some sleet this morning as it fell.

 

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I am not quite ready to give up hope on winter.  I see some good signs in the latest models.  Looks like the shift is for a  more southerly track for the lows.  Just see if it continues, or it corrects its self to the pattern all winter.  March 1-5...  Let's see.  It is not just one run, but the last 3 runs of the GFS

Edited by RickyD
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