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The 12z Euro brings back major cold starting on the 7th. The GFS below has a similar look but not as cold. The GFS even has snow over south Georgia.

The CPC monthly outlook seems to always be off. They try hard though. They usually get better as the month goes on, and by the end of the month, perfect forecast. 😜 The Euro Weeklies show normal

Bastardi  

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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1440Z WED FEB 20 2019


UPDATE ON 12Z NAM DELAY...

Due to a hardware error on WCOSS (Tide), the 12Z NAM will be
delayed up to 15-20 minutes. Expect similar delays for downstream
jobs which will include some of the output from the NAMMOS, HREF,
HIRESW, EKDMOS, and HYSPLIT. Also, the RTOFS has been delayed by
5 minutes. The Tide node with the error has been taken out of the
production queue in order to prevent additional delays.

 

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Yesterday's system was very interesting.  Not often do you see the reports of thunderstorms when the temps are hovering in the mid-upper 30's low 40's.. Also hail at those temps.  Sigh--   another wasted chance this year.  How many is that?

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Those areas that had a Flood Watch, now have a Flood Warning. Those that are a little further south now have a Flood Watch.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1204 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN TRANSITIONED TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...

.OVERVIEW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOILS HAVE BECOME VERY 
SATURATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 85 AND INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDORS. HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES IN COMBINATION WITH THE SATURATED SOILS WILL INCREASE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

 

NEW Flood Watch and Warning area

Snap346062452-20.thumb.jpg.d544d33e4c059b1590ff4e486047ab69.jpg

Quote

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...CHEROKEE... 
  DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS AND UNION. IN 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA...TOWNS AND WHITE. IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA... 
  BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FLOYD...GORDON... 
  HARALSON...MURRAY...PAULDING...POLK...WALKER AND WHITFIELD. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
  HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 
  RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1" AND 3" ARE LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY 
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE 
  SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE WATCH 
  MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY, OR EVEN THE WEEKEND, AS 
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. 


* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN OVERWHELM OR CLOG STORM DRAINS AND
  DITCHES WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING AND ROAD
  PONDING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE THIS TIME OF YEAR AS FALLEN
  LEAVES BLOCK OR IMPEDE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. TAKE TIME AHEAD OF THE
  RAIN TO CLEAR LEAVES AND DEBRIS FROM THESE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. DUE
  TO THE EXTREMELY SATURATED SOILS, DOWNED TREES WILL BE LIKELY,
  EVEN WITH SUB SEVERE WINDS.

|PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&



$$

GAZ022>025-032>035-042>045-052>055-210115-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FF.A.0003.190220T1704Z-190222T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-
CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, MARIETTA, ATLANTA, 
LAWRENCEVILLE, CARROLLTON, DOUGLASVILLE, EAST POINT, DECATUR, 
NEWNAN, AND PEACHTREE CITY
1204 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND WEST CENTRAL 
  GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL 
  GEORGIA...BARROW...CLAYTON...COBB...DEKALB...DOUGLAS... 
  FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GWINNETT...HALL...NORTH FULTON AND SOUTH 
  FULTON. IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BANKS AND JACKSON. IN NORTHWEST 
  GEORGIA...CARROLL. IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...COWETA AND HEARD. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
  HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 
  RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1" AND 3" ARE LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY 
  HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE 
  SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE WATCH 
  MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY, OR EVEN THE WEEKEND, AS 
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. 


* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN OVERWHELM OR CLOG STORM DRAINS AND
  DITCHES WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING AND ROAD
  PONDING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE THIS TIME OF YEAR AS FALLEN
  LEAVES BLOCK OR IMPEDE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. TAKE TIME AHEAD OF THE
  RAIN TO CLEAR LEAVES AND DEBRIS FROM THESE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. DUE
  TO THE EXTREMELY SATURATED SOILS, DOWNED TREES WILL BE LIKELY,
  EVEN WITH SUB SEVERE WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

 

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1 hour ago, Brooke said:

Just saw this article about the new FV3 modal not being very reliable for predicting snow - https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

As the article says, it does somethings pretty well. They will get it fixed, and probably before it is released as the new operational.

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31 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Snap346062454.thumb.jpg.0781d1cca404a822da67d2e74707e499.jpg

ok i have thought and deleted about a couple dozen replies.  some downright hilarious, some not so much.   At this point I think i am just going to grab a safety blanket and go curl up in the fetal position and try to sleep for about a month until all this blows over.  I have been waiting for this day since 1993, for it to happen again. 

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1 minute ago, SouthSideDahlonega said:

ok i have thought and deleted about a couple dozen replies.  some downright hilarious, some not so much.   At this point I think i am just going to grab a safety blanket and go curl up in the fetal position and try to sleep for about a month until all this blows over.  I have been waiting for this day since 1993, for it to happen again. 

Me too. I lived here in Dacula when that happened, and it was the greatest weather event I've ever been through. 🙂

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