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NorthGeorgiaWX

February 12, Tuesday

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Good Tuesday AM to you!

Your favorite weather mode, rain, is back again, but today it will be heavier with a chance for a few thunderstorms. Oh yea!

Here's a look at the radar (6:20 am) and the temps. You can see I've outlined the "edge of da wedge" in yellow 🙂.

-12.thumb.jpg.9c9431d0cc8b8808dcf7af3ecb357e49.jpg

 

Here's a bigger picture

Snap346062423-12.thumb.jpg.c38e03288ff33cd0f73ed2b396373c14.jpg

 

We are located in a very minor area for severe weather, but a few claps of thunder can't be ruled out. Here's the latest from the NWS
 

Quote

By mid-morning, a line of heavier rain ahead of the cold front will
begin to enter northwest Georgia. While forecast instability is not
all that impressive, models have trended up slightly as compared to
earlier runs with MUCAPE ranging from a couple hundred J/kg in north
Georgia to over 500 J/kg farther south. As the surface low continues
to lift away from the area, the best forcing will as well; however,
forcing ahead of the trailing cold front along with the
aforementioned marginal instability should be sufficient for at
least some embedded thunderstorm activity. With enhanced shear also
in place, a low-level risk of a couple of strong thunderstorms or
perhaps a severe thunderstorm or two will exist. The primary threat
would be spotty damaging wind gusts or brief weak rotation. The
overall threat should diminish further by late afternoon/evening as
forcing continues to diminish as the convective line moves into
southeastern portions of the area. The highest rainfall totals today
will be across far north Georgia where a some locations will likely
exceed 2" amounts. Rainfall totals will taper substantially farther
south.

GA_swody1-12.png.9a25ab1b341c110e46ff3115390da981.png

 

Speaking of rainfall amounts... this is what they were talking about

ndfd_rain_atl_4-12.thumb.png.a3924e95c992cc5b5be6fc6c90d6eed9.png

 

At least temperatures will be mild, I suppose that's better than having rain with temps in the mid 30's. 

ndfd_t2max_atl_1-12.thumb.png.19b46da9bba615187ff63af91c2ce93d.png

 

So yes... today will be a washout, just like winter has been up to this point. 🙂 At some point, you may be complaining about not having enough rain, so enjoy it while you can! 

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Yea I like your comment enjoy it while you can! I got a strange feeling that Bermuda high/Southeast Ridge isn’t going anywhere and will be parked over us all summer with 95-100 degree heat and no rain!!! As the old farmers used to say drought ends in floods and floods end in drought!!!

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A slight update to the SPC Outlook for today. Before and after...

GA_swody1-12.png.e7de3d40ad8e5b98670ba249e0f94c96.pngGA_swody1-12-2.png.f55e119432d6e6a21591389185bd5c43.png

 

Quote

..Southeast...
   A band of convection, with isolated to widely scattered embedded,
   episodic thunderstorms, is forecast to become better-defined over
   the next few hours as it moves into a marginally destabilizing air
   mass across portions of MS/AL.  For short-term potential, please
   refer to SPC mesoscale discussion 99. 

   As the main convective band progresses eastward over more of the
   outlook area today, isolated damaging gusts, perhaps a severe gust,
   are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out despite the weak
   lapse rates and linear mode.  The destabilization will occur from a
   mix of boundary-layer theta-e advection and subtle surface diabatic
   heating beneath broken to overcast cloud cover.  MLCAPE near 500
   J/kg should develop over parts of eastern/southeastern AL and
   western GA.  The boundary-layer destabilization will be more
   prevalent with southeastward extent over AL/western GA away from the
   thickest clouds.  However, as the main low-level cyclone and
   accompanying isallobaric forcing eject away from the area, low-level
   lift and shear are each expected to weaken with time over the
   regions experiencing greatest direct heating.  Deep shear and
   low-level shear generally will remain favorable across the outlook
   area until the line passes, though some veering of near-surface
   winds will reduce bulk shear values with time ahead of the
   convection -- especially the southern portion closest to the Gulf.

 

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Yuck, favorite weatherperson , we need at least some sunshine.. my daffodils are blooming up here.. 

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2 hours ago, Asperman1 said:

So, have to ask, how bad does it look to get here in Dawsonville 

The worst of the bad weather will remain to your south. Just some thunderstorms and possibly some high winds.

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

And it has changed once again. 

Before and now

GA_swody1-12-2.png.9841880bf44e634b13074682955de2d3.pngGA_swody1-12-3.png.1f240181a18cdb6a851d3251fec0cfb2.png

 

Don’t like how close it is getting to Dawson, any tips to help me relax and not worry as much?

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1 minute ago, Asperman1 said:

Don’t like how close it is getting to Dawson, any tips to help me relax and not worry as much?

Well, there are no severe weather warnings anywhere right now, so that's a big plus. 🙂 I'm watching closely.

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Well, there are no severe weather warnings anywhere right now, so that's a big plus. 🙂 I'm watching closely.

Thank you Steve, sorry for asking so many similar questions, I have anxiety a lot and get worried easily. I am glad to be prepared though, even if I hope for the best 

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Right now no lightning around either. There were a few strikes in Alabama about 20 minutes ago, but that's it for now.

 

When should the weather be over?

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Quote

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1249 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2019

GAZ013>015-021-022-032>034-045-121815-
DAWSON GA-NORTH FULTON GA-COBB GA-CHEROKEE GA-DEKALB GA-FORSYTH GA-
GWINNETT GA-PICKENS GA-LUMPKIN GA-
1249 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAWSON...NORTH FULTON...COBB...
CHEROKEE...NORTHWESTERN DEKALB...FORSYTH...WESTERN GWINNETT...EASTERN
PICKENS AND LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EST...

AT 1249 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SEQUOYAH LAKE TO POWDER SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

  IMPACT...WHILE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS 
           AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS...THE 
           LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS ALSO EXHIBITED 
           AREAS OF LOCALIZED ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD 
           QUICKLY FORM.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA, MARIETTA, CANTON, DECATUR, CUMMING, DAHLONEGA, JASPER,
DAWSONVILLE, SANDY SPRINGS, ROSWELL, JOHNS CREEK, ALPHARETTA, SMYRNA,
DUNWOODY, MILTON, KENNESAW, DULUTH, WOODSTOCK, ACWORTH AND SUGAR
HILL.

 

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Quote
GOES-17 is now GOES-West! 
 

As of 1800 UTC on February 12, 2019, GOES-17 is the official GOES-West satellite stationed at 137.2 degrees west and the 1691.0 MHz GOES-15 LRIT broadcast has now been disabled. GOES-15 Infrared and Water Vapor imagery is still available on it's normal schedule on GOES-17's HRIT broadcast.

 

GOES-17 and GOES-15 will operate in tandem from their respective locations of 137.2 degrees west and 128 degrees west through early July 2019. After July 2019, GOES-15 data distribution will conclude while GOES-17 data distribution will continue in the GOES-West assignment.

 

Information on GOES-17 ABI performance including Loop Heat Pipe information and predictive saturation dates/times can be found at https://www.goes-r.gov/users/GOES-17-ABI-Performance.html

 
Additional information on saturation by channel, focal plane temperature, time of day, and season can be found in the attached slide package of reference material. This information is based on predictions. 
 

Information on product mapping from GOES-15 to GOES-17 can be found on the bottom right at https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOES/transition.html

 

GOES-17 imagery can be viewed at: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php

 

GOES-17 scanning schedules will be posted to the following site after the Critical Weather Day declaration has ended: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/GOES/schedules.html

 

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