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February 14, Thursday

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Happy Valentines Day! ❤️

Before I talked about weather, I wanted to share this link from National Geographic. These images are incredible in detail and if you are a teacher, the kids would absolutely love them.




As the long term portion begins, models are in excellent agreement
in showing a low pressure system at the surface tracking across
the Tennessee Valley and into portions of North GA. Good return
flow ahead of this feature off the gulf will allow moisture to
stream northward with categorical pops the result north of I20.
With zonal flow aloft continuing through the period, these systems
will be quick hitters but there will be a multitude of them

allowing for rainfall totals to really pile up. With early exit of
system on Sat, latter half of the day actually looks pretty good
now with clearing conditions.

As will be a theme with the extended, the front stalls awaiting
additional upper level energy. The next of these will be late
Sunday with heavy rainfall a possibility once again as low tracks
across the area. Same story on Tue with a stronger system that
acts in conjunction with developing surface wedge. This could
allow for a more prolonged period of steady rainfall through

Tuesday night before warm front lifts north. Additional weak
systems to affect the area for the remainder of the long term
adding to flood concerns through most of next week.

Current 7 day WPC rainfall now portrays 7 to 10 inch totals across
north GA which seems on target with some of the model projections.

Should this verify, we would certainly see some widespread minor
flooding concerns across the area as likely some isolated moderate
flooding with totals like these. Too early to say for sure but
certainly looks like a wet pattern so be sure to stay tuned.



Soooooo... better start building that ark, looks like you're gonna need it!



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Over the next 7 days, Georgia is ranked #3 in terms of "Max Precip" Amounts in the US. 



But in the Coaches Poll, Georgia is only #5 in the US for "Total Gallons". 



And Georgia drops to #6 in the AP poll due to its poor performance in the "Avg Precip" category. :classic_smile:


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2 minutes ago, firefighter556 said:

And just to think all we needed is some cold air and we would have feet of snow on the ground.......

My 5"+ of rain (for January ALONE) here would have left me at about 50" or so, so yes, it would have been a blockbuster January.

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Not saying there may not be chances, but time is running out. And yes, MANY busted forecast this year. Someone was just talking about how the ENSO is more like a La Nina than an El Nino, called it a El Nina. This would be a typical La Nina pattern for us. 

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