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NorthGeorgiaWX

February 15, Friday

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Good Friday morning!

I know some teachers are off today (Gwinnett) while others are off next week (Cobb). How about your school system?

The big weather story is the week of rain.  How much rain you ask?

Quote

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

You're gonna need a bigger boat. This is the theme of the long
term portion as we follow up the Saturday system with what looks
to be a series of moderate rain producers. The first of these will
be a fairly light event as we get some isentropic wedge induced
precip Sunday morning. Wedge holds through Sunday afternoon, but
we get some mid level energy to help things along and actually
develops a weak low pressure system over Alabama per the GFS. The
potential exists to see 1.5 to 2 inches from this event which will
likely add to already emerging flood concerns across the area.

Front stalls just south of the region but does give us a brief
respite from the rain through Monday afternoon. This quickly
changes though as mid level trough develops over the 4 corners
region, setting up a classic long fetch and deep SW flow event for
the local area. With embedded shortwaves traversing the trough,
should see weak low pressure develop along the Gulf coast Tue.
With high pressure north of the region, another long period of
isentropic ascent will prevail with generally an inch of rain
every 6 hours through Tue evening. Only saving grace may be warm
front lifting north of the area briefly but ECMWF keeps far north
in the high rain chances.

Front settles back in over the region through weeks end and
although moisture will be high, ultimately will depend upon
individual shortwaves to determine how much local area actually
gets. Though the entire short term and long term periods, GFS
indicates 6 to 10 inches of rain for areas north of I-20. Moderate
flooding would almost certainly exist under this scenario with
potential for major depending on how convective activity can
ultimately become.

 

Here's the current WPC 7 day rainfall forecast, from today and yesterday. A slight shift NW but increased amounts, going from a max of 9.96" to 12.05" in this forecast.

Today's Forecast

1510598926_NCEPWPCPrecipitationundefinedundefined168-15.thumb.png.ada51cc1d463a168c31156b3d7d3c216.png

 

Yesterdays Forecast

1684912014_NCEPWPCPrecipitationGeorgiaTotalPrecipitation168-14.thumb.png.31469ccec7660c6a460c35768a953acc.png

 

Soooo.... stay dry out there. The rain will be off and on and not a constant steady precip, so get out in between the showers and have fun. Might as well make the best of it! 🙂 As Joe Bastardi would say, "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got"!

Wish I had thought of that first... :classic_dry:

 

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18 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good Friday morning!

I know some teachers are off today (Gwinnett) while others are off next week (Cobb). How about your school system?

The big weather story is the week of rain.  How much rain you ask?

 

Here's the current WPC 7 day rainfall forecast, from today and yesterday. A slight shift NW but increased amounts, going from a max of 9.96" to 12.05" in this forecast.

Today's Forecast

1510598926_NCEPWPCPrecipitationundefinedundefined168-15.thumb.png.ada51cc1d463a168c31156b3d7d3c216.png

 

Yesterdays Forecast

1684912014_NCEPWPCPrecipitationGeorgiaTotalPrecipitation168-14.thumb.png.31469ccec7660c6a460c35768a953acc.png

 

Soooo.... stay dry out there. The rain will be off and on and not a constant steady precip, so get out in between the showers and have fun. Might as well make the best of it! 🙂 As Joe Bastardi would say, "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got"!

Wish I had thought of that first... :classic_dry:

 

You can't twinkle your nose and make it cold enough to snow with this rain ❄😏

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What happened to winter? What does the return of El Niño mean for the rest of  winter? 

Edited by MNW

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Steve can you tell me if there is going to be some dry time on Monday.  Want to play golf but it looks like another rainy day.

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31 minutes ago, MNW said:

What happened to winter? What does the return of El Niño mean for the rest of  winter? 

You would think so, but I don't trust that to happen at this point. But not to say it can't either.

 

3 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

Steve can you tell me if there is going to be some dry time on Monday.  Want to play golf but it looks like another rainy day.

It's going to be tough to time the multitude of impulses that will be coming through, but according to the NWS, at least for now, Monday may not be too bad. 

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good Friday morning!

I know some teachers are off today (Gwinnett) while others are off next week (Cobb). How about your school system?

The big weather story is the week of rain.  How much rain you ask?

 

Here's the current WPC 7 day rainfall forecast, from today and yesterday. A slight shift NW but increased amounts, going from a max of 9.96" to 12.05" in this forecast.

Today's Forecast

1510598926_NCEPWPCPrecipitationundefinedundefined168-15.thumb.png.ada51cc1d463a168c31156b3d7d3c216.png

 

Yesterdays Forecast

1684912014_NCEPWPCPrecipitationGeorgiaTotalPrecipitation168-14.thumb.png.31469ccec7660c6a460c35768a953acc.png

 

Soooo.... stay dry out there. The rain will be off and on and not a constant steady precip, so get out in between the showers and have fun. Might as well make the best of it! 🙂 As Joe Bastardi would say, "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got"!

Wish I had thought of that first... :classic_dry:

 

Happy Friday Steve, I hope your knee's feeling better! Barrow county is out today and Monday so I'm taking my Son who is in high school now back to the elementary school to see his past teachers that made a lasting impression on him. Oh and I refuse to throw the towel in on winter I will hold on to a surprise storm at least for a few more weeks even if my dandelions are blooming! 😉 Have a great weekend!

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2 minutes ago, Dyan said:

Happy Friday Steve, I hope your knee's feeling better! Barrow county is out today and Monday so I'm taking my Son who is in high school now back to the elementary school to see his past teachers that made a lasting impression on him. Oh and I refuse to throw the towel in on winter I will hold on to a surprise storm at least for a few more weeks even if my dandelions are blooming! 😉 Have a great weekend!

Thanks!

Gwinnett is also off Monday... at least the kids are. It's a teacher work day. 

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