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NorthGeorgiaWX

February 19, Tuesday

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Well....

 

Yes, who will stop the rain. 

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A band of light rain has persisted across north GA overnight. With
low dewpoints and temperatures in the mid 30s across the
north...have included a mix of light rain and sleet for this morning
generally north of Rome to Cleveland. No impacts are expected. Rain
will be increasing during the day as the long fetch of southwesterly
flow continues to bring moisture into the forecast area. The axis of
highest QPF has shifted north and west...but still looks like storm
totals through the week of four to six inches north of Atlanta to

Gainesville...and tapering to lesser amounts south. Have made no
changes to the Flood Watch. A strong wedge will set up today and
continue through much of Wednesday. Winds should be gusty at times
today with some places at the higher elevations gusting to around

35kts. Not looking widespread enough for a wind advisory at this
time...but next shift may want to keep an eye on this. Temperatures
today will be difficult since the amount of warming is questionable.
Have generally taken the highs down a bit especially across the
north. Expect Wednesday to be another cool and wet day with the
wedge still in place. Have left the mention of thunder out of the
short term.

The long term period picks up with another period of possible heavy
rainfall late Wednesday as the wedge breaks down and a cold front

pushes towards the area. Current models don't show the front making
much progress into the area before becoming more parallel to the
flow and stalling. With the front stalled somewhere in the
vicinity, likely to categorical pops have been included for
northern Georgia through Saturday as multiple waves of

precipitation move through the area. With instability present,
thunder has also been included for multiple days of the forecast.
Also, with such high PW values forecast Wednesday through the
rest of the long term, heavy rain is expected at times over
multiple days continuing concerns for flash flooding and river
flooding. Portions of northwestern GA already has a few rivers in

flood. The Flood Watch is still in effect for portions of
northeast Georgia through early Friday. Make sure to stay updated
to the forecast for any changes to the watch.

The next more organized system looks to impact the area late
Saturday into Sunday as a surface low develops across the mid-west
and pushes a cold front into the state on Sunday. With good
instability across central Georgia and high PW values, this system
will bring another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the
area.

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image_full1.thumb.png.ba54fec7f1cd7ecbbbc46147ba497cb5.png

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Looks like that little rodent was right about an early spring.. shucks!

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1 minute ago, MNW said:

Looks like that little rodent was right about an early spring.. shucks!

Every squirrel gets a nut every now and then. 🙂

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Winter is not quite over in Sky Valley. We are starting to see some sleet accumulation on elevated surfaces (deck, vehicles, etc). The temperature is down to 33 which is a little concerning because it’s about 4-5 degrees colder than the NWS forecast grids and with the forecast for overnight already calling for a glazing of freezing rain, I hope that temperature trend doesn’t continue. My wife took the picture below, it must be nice to have back to back days off from school, we have a teacher workday in Rabun today and are back at it with kids tomorrow. 

 

563EB66C-05B4-494C-B249-252C32A1792D.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Preston said:

Winter is not quite over in Sky Valley. We are starting to see some sleet accumulation on elevated surfaces (deck, vehicles, etc). The temperature is down to 33 which is a little concerning because it’s about 4-5 degrees colder than the NWS forecast grids and with the forecast for overnight already calling for a glazing of freezing rain, I hope that temperature trend doesn’t continue. My wife took the picture below, it must be nice to have back to back days off from school, we have a teacher workday in Rabun today and are back at it with kids tomorrow. 

 

563EB66C-05B4-494C-B249-252C32A1792D.jpeg

Nice! Gwinnett had a teachers work day yesterday.
 

Mine wasn't as heavy... 🙂 Plus I was 44 degrees!

Snap346062440.thumb.jpg.8ab4990b1c93e1cdceaf4f8f34d327d5.jpg

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Snap346062444-19.thumb.jpg.6678a519dfaa7f9e7ac73ab94b6a2d5a.jpg

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2019


GAZ006>009-013>016-021-031-041-201000-
/O.EXB.KFFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190223T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-CHEROKEE-
PAULDING-HARALSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DAHLONEGA AND CLEVELAND
214 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...CHEROKEE... 
  DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS AND UNION. IN 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA...TOWNS AND WHITE. IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA... 
  HARALSON AND PAULDING. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
  HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
  PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WILL PRODUCE
  SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS. EVEN AFTER
  THE RAIN ENDS, HIGH WATER COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
234 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2019

GAC089-121-135-200130-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FA.W.0002.190219T1934Z-190220T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DEKALB GA-GWINNETT GA-FULTON GA-
234 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
  CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EST TUESDAY.

* AT 228 PM EST, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
  ALREADY FALLEN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN METRO 
ATLANTA AREA, INCLUDING THE MIDTOWN AND BUCKHEAD AREAS, BROOKHAVEN, 
TUCKER, DORAVILLE, NORCROSS, PLEASANT HILL, AND SNELLVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

 

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Quote

..Afternoon Forecast Package...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across North and portions
of central GA as good East to Southeasterly flow continues across the
area. The increased easterly flow is helping to push the high
pressure wedge down into our area as the axis of highest QPF looks
to stay north and west of our area. With rain expected to continue
into the extended periods we are still looking for some flooding
across N GA with 6 day totals in the 3-6 inch range. Have added a
few more counties into the current flood watch and will keep it
going through Saturday morning. The watch extends from Haralson...to
Cherokee...to White counties and all areas north of that line. Winds
will be elevated and gusty at times tonight and Wednesday with some
places at the higher elevations gusting to around 30kts.
Temperatures...especially under the wedge will stay a bit cool with
lows tonight in the 30s and highs in the 40s Wed. Locations not
under the influence of the wedge will see temps get up into the 60s
and 70s Wednesday which will be mainly across central portions of
the state.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Overall, only minimal changes to the extended period. The only
addition is another wedge front system that will move into the
area Friday Night into Saturday as a strong New England surface
high pressure quickly moves off into the Atlantic. This extra lift
could further enhance rainfall totals for North Georgia during

that time frame. Otherwise, the preceding discussion follows.

Following this continuous bout of rain through Sunday, the next
wave looks just as strong and begins to move into the area on
Monday. A fairly active pattern looks likely afterwards with low
pressure waves causing trouble in the forecast area every few
days.

 

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Had some hail over in Walton when the storms rolled through earlier this afternoon.

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2 hours ago, Asperman1 said:

Hey Steve, was wondering if at any point in the coming days, we gain a severe weather risk?

Some thunderstorms, but no severe for now.

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