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NorthGeorgiaWX

February 20, Wednesday

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Good morning!

Off to a cold damp start this morning! At least it feels like winter even if we don't have snow. I need to try to go back and count how many times we've had rain and temps in the mid-30's this winter, sure seems like a lot to me. 

Some people had a generous amount of rain yesterday. Here at the house in Gwinnett, I had 1.63" but others had 2"+ in their backyard. Here's the radar estimated totals.

stp-ffc_20_9am.thumb.png.4cf28ba5916d1f383f83c4f5eb20ebfd.png

 

Forecast rainfall amounts from the WPC and the local forecast offices agree in principal as to location and amounts.

351416839_NCEPWPCPrecipitationundefinedundefined24.thumb.png.be999a9da4e73250044204beb48283e5.pngdownload-20.thumb.png.c3cc723a261e3c4a0bf04fcc5a34a737.png

 

It looks like that we can expect another 2-3" of rain over the next 7 days.

1821574790_NCEPWPCPrecipitationundefinedundefined168-20.thumb.png.9236077f3bb7302187a1940a24e69afa.png

 

This image DOES NOT include rainfall AFTER 8 am YESTERDAY, but is a look at the last 7 days of rainfall across the southeast. This image will be updated around 11 am today and I'll share it when it comes out.

nws_precip_georgia_7.thumb.png.13f81b3101e7bd0c172af637d259bb2d.png

 

We've actually been running a little below normal for rainfall over the last 30 days, and again, this will change with the 11 am update.

nws_precip_georgia_p30-20.thumb.png.08286ce0a2fed03061462d651210a069.png

 

Does anyone use the "Home" page here? I really like the data that is available there! I doesn't hurt to do a refresh on the page when you go there, sometimes the images are cached and need to be refreshed.

I've also finished the "Winter Temperature Anomalies" page(s) at DaculaWeather.com. I made a few enhancements and I'm now going back to 1900 for data. For each decade, I've also added summary images for Dec, Jan, Feb, as well as the decade average. Three additional pages pages were created to summarize the data for Dec, Jan, Feb, so all Dec's can be seen on one page, all Jan's on a page, etc. Check it out!
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_temp_anom.php

Stay warm and dry! Speaking of warm... I think I need a fire... 😉

Have a great day!

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Not to stir the pot or anything, but I heard talk about a pattern flip in early March.  Back to wintery cold.  Is that anything you've seen or read?  (I wouldn't doubt it, since my college student will have to be on the road that week.  That's how it usually works.)

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6 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

Not to stir the pot or anything, but I heard talk about a pattern flip in early March.  Back to wintery cold.  Is that anything you've seen or read?  (I wouldn't doubt it, since my college student will have to be on the road that week.  That's how it usually works.)

Yep... but I'm gun shy about talking about it! But yes, the models are showing a flip back to cold. And as you also know, they have showed that several times this year, only to see it go away. So I'm waiting to get closer in time before saying much about it. If I said anything now, people would be like "this guy just can't give it up..." 🙂 So we'll watch and wait. Just know I am watching it. 

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SPC Day 4 outlook is interesting. Some concern with the seriousness of their wording. We'll have to watch that, especially if it shifts farther east. day48prob.gif?1550684464458

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Heads up!

mcd0058-20.gif.d4de8c853b93ed21280949d116e9f711.gif

Quote

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

Areas affected...far southern MS, central AL into northern GA and
the southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202111Z - 210300Z

Summary...
A continued slow eastward drift to an ongoing heavy
rainfall axis will likely result in an additional 1-3 inches of
rain through 03Z. Flash Flooding will be possible given wet
antecedent conditions.

Discussion...
2030Z regional radar imagery showed a broken line of
heavy rain extending from the southern Appalachians to near the
southern MS/AL border. Peak rainfall rates within the line across
the southern half of MS have averaged 1-2 in/hr over the past
couple of hours where available CAPE values have been higher
compared with locations farther north toward the Appalachians
where peak rainfall rates have been closer to 0.5 in/hr given
limited CAPE. The line of heaviest rain in central AL aligned well
with the axis of strongest low level moisture flux at 2030Z, but
heavier rain was located east of the axis of stronger moisture
flux across TN and NC.

Near neutral RAP forecast mid-level height falls over the next 6
hours across the Southeast will allow for only slow movement of
the cold front and related axis of maximum low level moisture
flux. Forecast placement of the moisture axis shows it reaching
the southern Appalachians in the 00-03Z time frame likely meaning
that ongoing rain over the southern Appalachians will be followed
by a second round early tonight. While rainfall rates are not
expected to peak much above 0.5 in/hr, rainfall north of a line
extending through north-central AL into northern GA has been over
200 percent of normal over the past week leading to more
susceptibility to flash flooding. Farther south, weak MLCAPE of
250-750 J/kg combined with precipitable water values near 1.75
inches could support training within a unidirectional flow regime
with 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Antecedent conditions
farther south have been fairly dry which may limit flash flood
potential to especially vulnerable locations. Maximum additional
rainfall of 1-3 inches is expected across portions of central AL,
northern GA into the Appalachians through 03Z which may produce
flash flooding.

 

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We may set a record today. The max precipitable water value recorded by the Atlanta NWS office for the entire month of February is 1.59", and models are trying to bring 1.6-1.7" overnight. So much liquid, so little cold...

Snap346062453-20.thumb.jpg.bfde90ed13ce574057ebfa64144ec362.jpg

 

Here's the HRRR's precipitable water values at 3 am.

hrrr_pwat_atl_13-20.thumb.png.60a1a61ea1c93c881fe20856170a9f80.png

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You might think this first image was bright because of daylight... but it's bright because of lightning. 2nd image was snapped by my webcam right after it.

PA_2019-02-20_18-23-45_314.jpg.1125bc133ac63eab893441c936e8742a.jpgPA_2019-02-20_18-23-46_324.jpg.df7186e1a818f2a19ad98c76f993e7fe.jpg

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