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Might as well start it off with severe weather outlooks. 

GA_swody2-02-2.png.382352c42c356a220b7b46c9ba1f6d9f.png

 

This from the Storm Prediction Center

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day2_outlook.php

Quote

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2019

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
   GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will
   be possible on Sunday from the central Gulf Coast east-northeastward
   into western South Carolina.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/Georgia/South
   Carolina...
   A fast moving shortwave trough will approach the Southeast on
   Sunday. At the surface, a low is forecast to move across northern
   parts of the central Gulf Coast states. A trailing cold front should
   be located from southern Mississippi into south-central Alabama by
   afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that numerous thunderstorms will
   develop along the front in the morning and early afternoon as the
   front advances southeastward. Surface winds parallel to the front
   combined with strong low-level convergence will be favorable for
   squall-line development. Additional thunderstorms should develop
   eastward across the moist sector. This activity should organize into
   a MCS and move east-southeastward across the region during the
   afternoon and early evening.

   As the shortwave trough moves across the lower Mississippi Valley on
   Sunday, a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will move across the Tennessee
   Valley. The southeastern edge of this feature will enhance ascent
   and aid strong deep-layer shear profiles. Due to this, a wind damage
   threat should develop within the squall-line by midday.  At
   low-levels, a 40 to 60 kt jet is forecast to move eastward across
   south-central Alabama during the afternoon. Discrete supercells that
   form over the warm sector near and to the southwest of the low-level
   jet max will have favorable shear profiles for tornadoes.  The
   number of tornadoes that develop will be dependent upon how many
   discrete cells form out ahead of the cold front. If a cluster of
   discrete cells can become scattered across the area with stronger
   instability, then there could be a small cluster of tornadoes. The
   greatest potential for tornadoes is currently forecast from just
   north of Mobile east-northeastward to the east of Columbus, Georgia.
    An enhanced has been added along this corridor where a potential
   for strong tornadoes will exist. In addition to tornadoes, wind
   damage and isolated large hail will also be possible with
   supercells. A wind damage threat should also be concentrated along
   the squall-line to the west.  The squall-line should progress
   eastward across the southern Gulf Coast States and into Georgia
   during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

And this from the Atlanta NWS office

http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/ffc_afd_rec.html/

Quote

Big story for the short term will be the severe risk on Sunday as
low pressure tracks across the I20 corridor to the west and I85 to
the east. Now the details of exactly how far north or south this
low tracks will be crucial in determining how much of the area is
impacted by sever storms. What we do know is that areas along and
south of a Columbus to Macon line will see the best chances for
severe storms including damaging winds and tornadoes. Models now
showing close to 1200 J/KG of surface based CAPE possible in
these areas which is troublesome.

In most cases with such high helicity,the updrafts are not able
to support the shear but in this case the balance may be about
right unfortunately. SigTor values now in excess of 10 on the
models which with even a conservative halfing of the values
remains quite high. This would support more discrete activity
transitioning from the squall line and the potential for a few
stronger tornadoes. Certainly not a done deal as timing will be
crucial but the chance is at least there to see enhanced activity.
Although activity will be moving very quickly, could still get
some isolated flash flooding across the area.

 

I'll be here tracking this all day tomorrow, so check back for more information.

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I will be traveling down there tomorrow, I'll share photo's and information as I obtain it. 

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Just now, SuperCell said:

Where's the 18z 3km?

It seemed like it was stuck. NWS site says it's running

Snap346062475.thumb.jpg.4b5f3433b4fd70d83a9506b52dd6a846.jpg

 

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The worst of the weather will remain to our south, so north Georgia is relatively safe I believe. We'll watch for any more changes.

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8 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The worst of the weather will remain to our south, so north Georgia is relatively safe I believe. We'll watch for any more changes.

What do you think the tornadoes risk will be for the Dawson, Forsyth County ares, and will the system weaken as it approaches Georgia?

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9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The worst of the weather will remain to our south, so north Georgia is relatively safe I believe. We'll watch for any more changes.

3km NAM finally generated lol Looks to me N GA could get in it a little bit at least. Perimeters not quite as impressive as farther south into central GA but CAPE looks doable and if we get any sun through the clouds creating some decent instability...definitely worth watching. Not going to be able to sleep tonight lol. 

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Thanks for the heads up.  What's the time frame for this? Mid to late afternoon?

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12 hours ago, firefighter556 said:

Ok you say North ga is in the clear? From where to where? Like Atlanta north? Or where just wondering

Check out this morning post with those details

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Nice summary by Larry Cosgrove...

Quote
I thought it wise to write up a "post-mortem" summary of the December through February weather outcome, as much talk now is being geared to "meteorological spring". There are some important clues as to how the conditions seen in the U.S. over the past 90 days may relate to forecasts for the March - May time frame.
 
1) Contrary to popular belief, there were blocking signatures in play this winter. Although many lamented the supposed lack of Greenland blocking, an examination of the 500MB level showed ridging anomalies not only in Alaska (which has been around since late October), but also the Arctic Islands into the -NAO typical positions. These were evident in the cases where severely cold (cAk) values took hold of the Midwest and Northeast.
 
2) The recurring example of a subtropical high over the Sargasso Sea and Greater Antilles (sometimes poking into the FL Peninsula) was responsible for relative warmth in December (which was well forecast), as well as parts of January and February across the southern and eastern tiers of the nation (which was not). Keep in mind this type of ridge alignment is often a precursor of rapid warming in spring over the Old South and Mid-Atlantic.
 
3) More often than not, a cold western U.S. trough dominated the general trend of weather in North America (still the case as of this writing). Occurring under Alaska/Yukon Rex blocking, cAk air with some mPk influence reached as far south as Baja California and the Sonoran Desert.
 
4) In a break from what many had termed typical El Nino climatology, the strong subtropical jet stream did NOT result from a split in the polar westerlies. Rather, convection associated with a Kona Low fed the southern branch, creating rainstorm after rainstorm from Texas into Dixie and the Mid-Atlantic region. Note that this wind anomaly reverted north and west during the winter, as opposed to a typical DJF alignment close to the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard.
 
Given that we have a full-basin weak El Nino, it seems likely that the vaunted subtropical jet stream will be an influence through spring. You may start groaning loudly now, as you realize that in addition to gradual rise in temperature, the position of this flow signature will bring lots of moisture and energy into play from Texas and Oklahoma through the eastern half of the U.S. The western and north central U.S. stand to see a great deal of snow, while the potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding rain could be a recurring issue for the Interstate 35 cities below Wichita KS through the Dixie states.
 
If, as I suspect, we start to lose the +ENSO episode in May and June, then the outline of the subtropical high into the Southeast must be brought up for examination. Most often, persistent ridging from Cuba to the Sargasso Sea is a forerunner of a Bermuda High or Great Smokies heat ridge. If so, locations to the right of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River are likely to see rapid turns to warm or hot weather as we start summer. Conversely, following the ECMWF monthly outlooks, a moist southerly flow may persist from western and central Texas into the Missouri Valley and High Plains. That would be a temperature suppressant, and may kick up some memories to 2007 if we see a turn toward a weak La Nina.
 
Any conjecture about hurricane season will be dealt with some other day.
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, March 2, 2019 at 9:25 P.M. CT

 

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 602 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 .UPDATE FOR AVIATION... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019/ ..Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Threat For Today... SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... The only concern this period will be to watch and monitor for severe thunderstorm development as a surface wave rides along a cold front and moves across the ATL/AHN areas this afternoon. SPC has indicated an "Enhanced" risk area covering almost all of central GA and a "Slight" risk area over the ATL/AHN areas. The most likely impacts will be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes, mainly this afternoon but possibly into early evening for far eastern and southern portions of central GA. Storm chances end quickly tonight with rain chances ending thereafter. Other than varying clouds, Monday is expected to be dry. Forecast high temperatures are expected to be above normal for much of the area except the far N/NW where highs will be near to below normal. Forecast high temperatures are running about 6-16 degrees below normal for Monday. Forecast low temperatures are running roughly within several degrees of normal tonight. Overall confidence is medium to high.

Pretty bad weather possible today

D0umN6VXQAA7kyL.jpeg

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2 hours ago, GroceryStoreMan said:

 

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 602 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 .UPDATE FOR AVIATION... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019/ ..Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Threat For Today... SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... The only concern this period will be to watch and monitor for severe thunderstorm development as a surface wave rides along a cold front and moves across the ATL/AHN areas this afternoon. SPC has indicated an "Enhanced" risk area covering almost all of central GA and a "Slight" risk area over the ATL/AHN areas. The most likely impacts will be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes, mainly this afternoon but possibly into early evening for far eastern and southern portions of central GA. Storm chances end quickly tonight with rain chances ending thereafter. Other than varying clouds, Monday is expected to be dry. Forecast high temperatures are expected to be above normal for much of the area except the far N/NW where highs will be near to below normal. Forecast high temperatures are running about 6-16 degrees below normal for Monday. Forecast low temperatures are running roughly within several degrees of normal tonight. Overall confidence is medium to high.

Pretty bad weather possible today

D0umN6VXQAA7kyL.jpeg

Talking about it over here ---> 

 

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Steve, how are you feeling about the severe weather risk for this weekend? Worse or about the Same as this past weekend?

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17 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Steve, how are you feeling about the severe weather risk for this weekend? Worse or about the Same as this past weekend?

I hope not as bad is also an option there 

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I have work in Jackson Saturday night, driving back late(11p or later) and then to Fayetteville at 10 the next morning. Hyper concerned about my drive as well as my family here in Dallas as west GA usually bears the brunt of severe weather when it first crosses into the state.... 😰

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At this point it doesn't seem they are expecting as bad as last weekend, at least this far east. Strong to severe storms definitely possible though. Looks like lower Mississippi River valley region may be the bullseye this time. But these things are a lot like our snow storms, and fine details make a big difference. So getting into hi-res model range is the next step for being able to say definitively. 

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Looking to the offices to our west... Huntsville. They are less and less impressed but very long winded. 🙂

Quote

Looking at the threats associated with this system, I'm less
confident about the area really seeing much severe potential than I

was a few days ago. There are many questions that still remain, the
biggest one being how much rain lingers during the day on Saturday
and how much destabilization occurs. The other negating factor is the
track of the upper trough and associated surface low. As the parent
low moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley, the boundary that is
currently over the area will lift northward, placing the TN Valley
well within the warm sector of the system. However, as the trough
moves into the Great Lakes and begins to weaken, we may see slight
height rises over the TN Valley, giving us a cap when the best
dynamics set up.

And then there is the question over how much mid and
upper level dynamics will be able to reach this far south given the
northward track of the trough. There will be a fairly strong low
level jet, with the TN Valley on the southern flank of the higher
wind speeds. This will allow some decent low level shear to develop
over the area, though the better deep layer shear doesn't quite line
up with this. Despite 0-1 km bulk shear in the 20 to 30 kt range
Saturday afternoon and evening, an inversion around 700 mb would keep
us capped and not able to tap into the is shear. If, and this is a
big if at this point, we are able to clear then we would likely
overcome this inversion. But that question mark will remain until the
clearing actually occurs, unfortunately.

The other thing to contend with is how quickly the higher dewpoints
filter into the area.


Looking upstream, there is quite a ways to go for the lower 60
dewpoints to reach the area. A couple of days of southerly flow will
certainly help this, but as the dewpoints over the Gulf are still in
the upper 50s, I'm having a difficult time believing that we will
have enough time for those better dewpoints to reach the area, thus
limiting the potential for surface based instability even further.

Certainly can't rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm on Saturday,
but the better chances will remain to our west. It really looks like
we'll be in that transition zone where strong to severe storms begin
to weaken. With that said, however, the higher low level shear does
make this an event to watch closely.

 

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And NWS Birmingham

Quote

Enough instability is present, so I do
expect some thunderstorm development. Strong low level shear
slides across the same area thanks to the low level jet to our
northwest. This could be enough to support strong to severe storms
capable of producing damaging winds and an isolated tornado north
and west of the I-59 corridor. Surface winds begin to veer to the
southwest fairly quickly, so as the front continues to push into
Central AL, the tornado threat becomes limited due to the lack of
low level directional shear. Also, synoptic heights, which have
been nearly steady ahead of the front, begin to rise in the late
evening and overnight hours. This should continue to limit the
severe potential as the front reaches the I-20 corridor.

By 09z Sunday (4am after time change), the dynamics are well to our
north as the cold front continues to slide southeastward through
Central AL. While there could still be some thunderstorms with this
line, the severe potential will largely have ended due to
unfavorable shear profiles and lack of upper level support.

 

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