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March Weather Discussion


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Might as well start it off with severe weather outlooks.    This from the Storm Prediction Center http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day2_outlook.php   And this from th

I hope everyone stays safe  

Given sever weather season is starting to ramp up, i felt this was appropriate to share. Just ignore the midwest part. Lol

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2 hours ago, RickyD said:

Steve, Your thoughts on this..  Way too little, too late for the SEast?

 

D1EJTAtX0AEkH4c.png:large

 

It's not too late IMO at least for far Northern GA as long as you can tap a Canadian cold source. But that being said there is no reason to believe a model would be even close to right at that range, and it's very strange to me that DT even posted it. Snow is not impossible this late in the season but I would certainly hedge my bets against it. 

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19 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

It's not too late IMO at least for far Northern GA as long as you can tap a Canadian cold source. But that being said there is no reason to believe a model would be even close to right at that range, and it's very strange to me that DT even posted it. Snow is not impossible this late in the season but I would certainly hedge my bets against it. 

Exactly. I saw this the other day and thought the same thing. Of all people. If it was anyone else DT would be busting their chops. Pot calling the kettle black...

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i see they shifted the severe threat  (enhanced region) to where we were speaking of... Took all of Al and almost all of Ms out and shifted it due north and encompassed the eastern edge of the NE corner of ARK...

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2 hours ago, Asperman1 said:

What does this map mean 

Split jet which is what we have been looking for all season.  Means the lows come south of us, instead of through the midwest as they have been and you have the cold with the moisture.  Problem is, will it happen and ? what is cold for us in late March?

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Larry Cosgrove

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You can gather a lot of information for forecasting by watching Himawari 8 and GOES WEST data. The mosaic weather image has lots of storms moving west to east from China into North America. You can also make out the incredibly vast subtropical jet stream, anchored from below Hawaii into northern Mexico, which is the only linkage between the convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the westerlies. (http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/quick_weather_summary.html/ | http://www.daculaweather.com/4_imagery.php)

wvg9.GIF

 

Sea surface temperature analysis shows a continued weak El Nino that is eroding on its eastern end, with cooler water about the Galapagos Islands. (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nino_graphs.php | http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sea_temp.php )

sstweek_c.gif

This arrangement tells me that the +ENSO signal is on its way toward neutral territory, and that the CFS model forecast mean, which so far has been wrong with its moderate/strong pronouncements, is not recognizing the change. That is, except for several members that bring the oceanic waters to negative/neutral status by October 1.

We have had two very strong subtropical high formations near the Greater Antilles and now into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. If a true El Nino were happening, the southern branch jet stream would be through that territory. It is possible that the 500MB heights could fall over Texas and the Gulf Coast in the 11 - 15 day period, via a storm, but support for a colder spring is diminishing when you look at the numerical models.

The CFS and ECMWF weeklies match well, and are in step with the global ensemble member scenario of an emerging semizonal flow, with remnant ridging across the western third of Canada. All of those storms across the Pacific Basin should have no problem targeting the lower 48 states. And each impulse probably will continue the trend of grabbing deep tropical from the zone of forcing below Hawaii. That would mean a formula for constant precipitation threats, severe weather chances from the lower/middle Great Plains through the Corn Belt and Old South, and a warm West/cool Central/warm East temperature alignment. If there is to be any cold weather in this mix, most likely that would occur in the St. Lawrence Valley into New England and the Maritime Provinces.

But watch out for those thunderstorms in the Great Plains and Mississippi River watershed. This pattern is an ideal set-up for major thunderstorm development, once we get passed the southern track system March 19 - 23.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 10:00 P.M. CT

 

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45 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I am too. Not sure what Larry is seeing, but it appears to be some change in the pattern.

I am just guessing here, but it seems he is saying after the 23rd we go “marching “ into full blown spring and severe weather. Winter is over, except of course the usual Easter cold snaps as winter bids adios

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