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March Weather Discussion

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12 hours ago, JenRay said:

Some are calling this low a landcane and even comparing it to the 1993 storm (in intensity)....how serious will it be for us, whatnot should we expect?

What you are about to see is something very similar to the 1993 Storm of The Century. Notice the two blue swirls out west and notice how they "combine". That is phasing and that is what causes the rapid intensification. "IF" the phasing occurs, there will be rapid intensification similar to that past (1993) storm and similar to the the rapid intensification of a hurricane. Unfortunately, there is no blocking to force all of this south, so as the storms have done all winter, this one will cut north to northeast. That path will keep the main area of energy to our north and west. However, what you will see is about a week of below normal temperatures in its wake. 

 

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NWS Atlanta

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Scattered showers are expected to arrive in north Georgia ahead of the warm front on Thursday morning, with increasing activity in the warm sector between the two fronts. More widespread activity is then anticipated to enter northwestern Georgia late Thursday afternoon
and slowly push southeastward into the forecast area during the overnight hours into Friday as the cold front approaches from the
west. Although the forcing ahead of the cold front will be fairly weak in our area, there will nonetheless be sufficient instability
aligned with strong deep-layer shear to support the development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms starting Thursday evening.
Strong wind gusts and small hail would be the primary threats 
with any severe storms that occur. The heaviest precipitation will
be across far north Georgia, where rainfall accumulations ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches is expected.
 

Nothing but our normal thunderstorms, so no major worries.

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2 hours ago, rwarren5 said:

Cold morning out there. 29 degrees in Dahlonega at 7 am. 

Yea, it was cold down here in Gwinnett too! I hit 33.1F for a low at 8:12 am this morning, and that was 6 degrees colder than yesterday morning, and I'm still (11:30 am) about 6 degrees colder than this time yesterday.

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Although some modeling of the ENSO sectors insists on an unusual, long-lived and stronger El Nino, environmental conditions suggests that a transition to a neutral signal is underway. All monitored equatorial Pacific Ocean districts show some manner of cooling, while corresponding waters in the Atlantic Basin are showing rapid warming. Indeed, when you look at the synoptic analysis of the upper atmosphere, a pattern change is developing that will see a vigorous cold pooling into the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska, with an end to splitting of the 500MB flow over the U.S., visions of La Nina come to mind. Indeed, look closely and you will a ridge axis close to the Southeast coastline on April 2.

 

But the transition period may last a long time, and my fear is that injected shortwaves in the semizonal flow may settle into a modest trough over the Desert and Intermountain Regions. Both the CFS and ECMWF series are showing this scenario. While I am not certain about a flip to strong warming over Canada (analog prediction only gradually moderates the cPk regime), warmer weather will most likely expand in the eastern half of the U.S. during the entire month of April.

 

Now I will pose a question to you: what do you think will happen when a broad trough aloft develops to the immediate left of the Continental Divide, while flat subtropical ridging lines up over the Strait of Yucatan and Cuba? That alignment would favor a repetitive three-way thermal convergence zone over TX, OK and KS (mP+cP/cT/mT) and ejection of impulses from the southwestern states. If that sounds like a classic set-up for severe thunderstorm formation in the south central U.S. into the Corn Belt and Old South, you are correct! There is excellent agreement from the analog mean on that concept, and seasonal climatology favors the potential set-up even more. The drawback here: areas that have seen enough rainfall this past winter are likely to see even more as April transitions to May.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday,March 23, 2019 at 10:15 P.M. CT

 

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Posted (edited)

The weather has been pretty quiet the past week around here. Though I have to say, I think I'd prefer the constant rain to all this pollen. 

Edited by rwarren5

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1 hour ago, rwarren5 said:

The weather has been pretty quiet the past week around here. Though I have to say, I think I'd prefer the constant rain to all this pollen. 

So far, it hasn't been too bad. Here's this year and the last 5 years. Looks like we're running pretty close to 2015 in terns of total pollen count for the month. 

Snap346062541-27.thumb.jpg.e33a4a1a8df8f39af447f6c118a1b69f.jpg

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27 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

So far, it hasn't been too bad. Here's this year and the last 5 years. Looks like we're running pretty close to 2015 in terns of total pollen count for the month. 

Snap346062541-27.thumb.jpg.e33a4a1a8df8f39af447f6c118a1b69f.jpg

Gonna hate when this results in an all at once explosion following next week's cold spell.... 

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10 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Gonna hate when this results in an all at once explosion following next week's cold spell.... 

I know. 

Here's what April has looked like since 2012. Some of those counts are incredible. Snap346062542.thumb.jpg.d25536efc7c9121564a0239580f9d96c.jpg

 

And here's our average counts

Snap346062543.thumb.jpg.0a5f631b7254e29efaa55d8e5423d89d.jpg

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Saw where April snow is on the Horizon. I am on my phone and can’t post but Asheville weather showed the models

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19 hours ago, RickyD said:

Saw where April snow is on the Horizon. I am on my phone and can’t post but Asheville weather showed the models

Think this was ICON run from last night, but most models showing some snow outside the mountains Tuesday 

0AF411A1-D79D-4272-A5D4-27CA5DA03D7F.png

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Waiting on the new Euro now, but the 00z run had some snow. But if you look at the temps, I'm not sure how they figure snow. It will most ;likely be a cold rain.

 

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56 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Waiting on the new Euro now, but the 00z run had some snow. But if you look at the temps, I'm not sure how they figure snow. It will most ;likely be a cold rain.

 

Yep my thoughts were that its likely one of those rain sleet mixes that it's interpreting as all snow. I suppose timing dependent, the highest of elevations could see a dusting if the moisture is even this far NW. 

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21 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yep my thoughts were that its likely one of those rain sleet mixes that it's interpreting as all snow. I suppose timing dependent, the highest of elevations could see a dusting if the moisture is even this far NW. 

Just looked at the latest Euro and 850 temps are only below freezing very briefly, and 925's never go below freezing except for a VERY small area. 

Snap346062548.jpg.9ea29b0ac59902336c1ff591ad5c44fd.jpg

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