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NorthGeorgiaWX

March 14, Thursday

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Good Thursday morning to everyone!

The surprising news this morning...  😜

All of that means is if we had cold like we were suppose to, we would be wallowing in snow instead of wallowing in misery. 😞 Anyway... the past is the past, learn and move on...

Today, and actually later this evening, the NW corner of the state could see some strong thunderstorms, but the bulk of the bad weather will remain to our west and north. The SPC has a sliver of the "Slight" outlook area over the corner of Georgia almost to Rome, with a small strip of "Marginal", and then general thunder further south and east. The system looses it's punch as the low lifts across the Great Lakes and takes the energy and forcing with it.

GA_swody1-14.png.6f77ef25a5444ae8034c0433fbf00b12.png

 

My forecast here in Gwinnett looks like this. You can see that once we get past the rain, things cool back down again.

Gwinnett

-14.thumb.jpg.7cd9f3aac070551f5d28516a4e76a218.jpg

 

Clayton

clayton-14.thumb.jpg.d1ba366b03f515f5e63502c586e56574.jpg

Dalton

dalton-14.thumb.jpg.5e9141d49efee51e34ad7e87873daf32.jpg

 

You can see everyone's forecast is pretty much the same. I'll keep an eye on the weather today just in case, but  I think we'll be fine. 

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NWS Atlanta on the severe threat

Quote

By this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the forecast area. While the most severe
storms are expected to remain in Tennessee and Alabama, a few strong
to severe storms may move into northwest portions of the forecast

area. Later in the night a weakened cold front will begin to move
through the area forcing a line of weak convection storms into the
Atlanta metro by early Friday morning. SBCAPE is expected to be
around 500-1250 J/kg in NW GA, with 0-1 SRH above 200 m^2/s^2. for
NW GA by the late evening which could result in some rotating
thunderstorms in the area so we'll be monitoring the severe threat
going forward.

NWS Huntsville

Quote

Because of the weak amount of forcing over the region
today, this will be a case where constant mesoanalysis is warranted
to evaluate the evolving severe weather threat.

 

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A lot of wind advisories to our west and north. Once we get in the warm moist flow, the winds will pick up for us as well. It is sure going to feel nice outside today!

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They have it rough in Nebraska this morning. Flooding, high winds, and heavy snow. That band of bright pink is greater than 2" per hour of snow.

Snap346062493-14.thumb.jpg.863fb2af426e95c18cfbca87ca6be026.jpg

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Is the reason there is a Severe Weather threat for NW Georgia because we are getting the southern edge of this huge storm hitting the north?

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1 hour ago, Asperman1 said:

Is the reason there is a Severe Weather threat for NW Georgia because we are getting the southern edge of this huge storm hitting the north?

Yes. The trailing cold front weakens as it approaches Georgia due to the low and its associated energy going northeast. 

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yes. The trailing cold front weakens as it approaches Georgia due to the low and its associated energy going northeast. 

That makes sense, has anything changed or do we still look okay in North Central and North East GA

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Variable clouds over Georgia at the moment.

clouds-14.jpg.fb8b480586cb6158f0977268dd435515.jpg

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us.php

 

Moisture and warmer temps are surging north in advance of the cold front. This map shows temps (red) and dew points (shading) 

Snap346062495-14.thumb.jpg.83c1887876cc35d1752fdb410c8b79a5.jpg

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis_18.php

 

The HRRR initialized temps and dew points perfectly for me (Lawrenceville on the maps) at the noon hour.

hrrr_t2m_atl_3-noon-14.thumb.png.536a881c48f68672a5ee568cbbdfb07b.pnghrrr_dew2m_atl_3-noon-14.thumb.png.969c38320d208501bf08af6f56e41a6c.png

According to the HRRR, by 3 pm, temperatures are suppose to look like this... 🏊‍♂️

hrrr_t2m_atl_6-3pm-14.thumb.png.1d77d9ec7436b94f653e27b93da3c8f5.png

I see the sun coming out as I type!!! WOOHOO!! 🙂 Where's the pool! :classic_cool:

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I've created a few new pages today in all my spare time! 🙂 

Here's one... this page display's daily records (for each day of the year) recorded by my weather station/weather station software since 2010. Here's a little snippet for today, March 14th. It display's the high/low/year and will also show new records.

Snap346062496.thumb.jpg.3d9ae04918aa2f6f291f9e3be5d7ac8f.jpg

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_daily_records.php

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It's a good thing that low is gonna take off to the north. If it had slid east towards Memphis/Southern Kentucky probably would have had a tornado outbreak on our hands. 

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This line of convection to our west doesn't look like it's playing around.... 

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1 minute ago, SuperCell said:

This line of convection to our west doesn't look like it's playing around.... 

Will Places like Dawson County be okay though?

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Will Places like Dawson County be okay though?

No real threat at this time in my unprofessional opinion

Edited by SuperCell
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Quote

March 14, 1960 
Northern Georgia was between snowstorms. Gainesville GA received 17 inches of snow during the month, and reported at least a trace of snow on the ground 22 days in March. Snow was on roofs in Hartwell GA from the 2nd to the 29th.

 

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2 minutes ago, SuperCell said:

Atlanta holding out on the afternoon AFD? 

They had a 2:07 pm update. Probably nothing to add of significance right now. The line has been weaker than thought but still needs to be watched. By the time it gets here though it looks like it's pretty broken and weak.

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