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Good morning to you!¬†ūüôā

The big story today is the potential for some severe weather, so we'll jump right in to the SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook:

Quote

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   AL AND GA...

   CORRECTED FOR HAIL PROBABILITIES

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of Alabama
   into western Georgia Monday afternoon into early evening. Hail is
   the primary risk.

   ...Gulf States...

   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts two distinct short-wave
   troughs upstream of the Gulf States. One feature is digging
   southeast along the IL/MO border while the lower-latitude short wave
   is approaching the Arklatex. Deep convection is noted ahead of these
   features at 0530z from northeast TX into western KY. Latest model
   guidance suggests this activity will propagate southeast and weaken
   by sunrise along a corridor from middle TN into central LA.
   Boundary-layer moisture has been slow to recover across the central
   Gulf States and this early-day convection is expected to remain weak
   before spreading into northern GA. Redevelopment is expected along a
   pronounced front later in the afternoon. If sufficient low-level
   heating can materialize in the wake of this weak convection/debris,
   isolated surface-based thunderstorms should materialize within a
   veered boundary-layer flow regime ahead of the wind shift.
   Convective temperatures are expected to be breached as temperatures
   warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Forecast soundings suggest
   deep-layer shear will support supercell development and large hail
   is the primary risk with convection that evolves within favorably
   forced region of upper trough. This activity is expected to spread
   into portions of GA during the late afternoon.

GA_swody1.png

 

Hail Probabilities

Snap346062530-25.thumb.jpg.1d8fe82b702f37fccca37e9b365557c4.jpg

 

Wind Probabilities

Snap346062532-25.thumb.jpg.60fa03dc13417905bb0e0faca28b7941.jpg

 

Tornado Probabilities

Snap346062531-25.thumb.jpg.199fbe3a40363e6288e1d6ac750c1d8f.jpg

 

Additional thoughts from the Atlanta NWS office:

Quote

Main concern today is the potential for strong to severe
convection this afternoon and early evening.

SPC is indicating a marginal to slight risk for severe storms
over roughly the western half to two thirds of the forecast area.
The most likely hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
Forecast soundings suggest deep layer shear that will support
supercell development and large hail is the primary hazard in the
vicinity of the upper trough. You can not rule out a brief tornado
but low level shear is borderline.

The associated cold front moves across the area late today and tonight
and this will diminish storm chances through the evening.

 

Here's a look at the current radar view

Snap346062533-25.thumb.jpg.d28a38bcd5a751eb59b48f6c6cad03f0.jpg

 

I will be here following the action all day long, so check back as the afternoon approaches for any additional information

 

 

 

 

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.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An upper level storm system will southeastward move across the area today, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could prove to be strong to severe, with the highest chance of severe storms this afternoon. The primary threats with any severe storms that occur will be large hail and damaging winds.

The most likely times for this activity include:

  • Monday morning for Northwest Georgia
  • early¬†afternoon for the Atlanta metro area
  • and Monday evening for¬†portions of Central Georgia
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I think between 2pm and 6pm will be the most likely time frame

26 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

So Dawson County, technically being part of the metro, should start early afternoon?

 

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25 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I think between 2pm and 6pm will be the most likely time frame

 

Thank you

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The line of rain is falling apart. Cloud cover has helped to limit temps so far. Areas further south have had more sunshine and have a little more heat to work with. 

20190325_1646_kffc_BR_0.5-ffc-25.thumb.png.a5db3392b806e56a1945131d958490fc.png

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46 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The line of rain is falling apart. Cloud cover has helped to limit temps so far. Areas further south have had more sunshine and have a little more heat to work with. 

20190325_1646_kffc_BR_0.5-ffc-25.thumb.png.a5db3392b806e56a1945131d958490fc.png

The Rain Line isn’t the main thing though, right?

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29 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

The Rain Line isn’t the main thing though, right?

There should be more development further west. The HRRR brings another line through late this afternoon/early evening, but the 3km NAM isn't as excited.

HRRR

1438751389_HRRR3-kmGeorgiaSimulatedRadar-25.gif.11610da83c0676593ff64faada9327aa.gif

 

3km NAM

1185164768_NAM-WRF3-kmMetroRegionsGeorgiaSimulatedRadar-25.gif.269e0898d033b05f955c7a42d67ea441.gif

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Quote

UPDATE...

Adjusted near term pops to be slightly higher due to some
isolated shower development across parts of north GA that looks to
be triggered by a weak outflow out ahead of the main system.
Still looking to have some strong to severe potential (mostly for
large hail) mainly this afternoon into evening today given cooling
aloft with the upper wave approaching and already very low
freezing levels seen in the morning soundings. Will need to watch
how much we can destabilize given ample cloud coverage across the
northwest majority of the CWA, though any pocket of clearing this
afternoon could quickly ramp up enough sfc instability. Raised
some temps up a bit in the less cloudy portion across the
southeast given some slower advection of the clouds. 

 

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This area of clear skies is going to allow for a generous amount of heat, and that doesn't bode well for later. We'll see how this goes.

 

Snap346062536-25.jpg

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Starting to see our first strong storms just NW of our area over TN. Already warnings for this area for large hail.

 

Environment over Dade Walker Catoosa and Chattooga becoming for favorable to support these storms as they move in within the next hour and a half . Same threats will exist with large hail and damaging winds possible. Expect this activity to form into a larger line of storms to move through the remainder of NW GA and into the metro later this afternoon and into the evening.

20190325_1944_khtx_BR_0.5-ffc-25-2.thumb.png.c174bba43125562a3b5bc31d0dbaa71b.png20190325_1941_kffc_BR_0.5-ffc-25-1.thumb.png.c3184c99108a355514c48debdd6ca2d2.png

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Possible hail in this storm and it's moving toward Gwinnett.

Quote

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2019

GAZ033-034-045-252015-
NORTH FULTON GA-DEKALB GA-GWINNETT GA-
348 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
DEKALB AND WESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 347 PM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ATLANTIC STATION, OR NEAR 
ATLANTA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF 
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY 
           STREET FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ATLANTA, DECATUR, CHAMBLEE, NORCROSS, DORAVILLE, CLARKSTON, STONE
MOUNTAIN, AVONDALE ESTATES, PINE LAKE, TUCKER, BELVEDERE PARK, NORTH
DECATUR, NORTH ATLANTA, NORTH DRUID HILLS, MIDTOWN, DRUID HILLS,
GRANT PARK-ZOO ATLANTA, CANDLER-MCAFEE, SWEET AUBURN AND PIEDMONT
PARK.

 

20190325_1945_kffc_KDP_0.5-ffc-25-4.png

20190325_1949_kffc_ET-ffc-25-3.png

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mcd0240-25.gif.ca02117c495e7ae5daa48f5c25ca6fbb.gif

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0240
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

   Areas affected...northern Alabama and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251949Z - 252145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is forecast to increase in coverage over the
   next 1-2 hours, with a few stronger cells becoming capable of
   producing hail, as well as a few locally damaging gusts.  A watch
   may become necessary depending upon convective evolution.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows some warming/moistening
   of the airmass ahead of a surface front advancing across the
   mid-South/central Gulf Coast states in a segmented manner.  Initial
   storms have developed over parts of Middle Tennessee nearer the
   upper trough, where cooler air aloft in conjunction with limited
   heating has yielded a pocket of modest /near 500 J/kg/ mixed-layer
   CAPE development.

   Though convergence is generally weak farther south into Alabama and
   vicinity, modest CAPE should support isolated to scattered storm
   development south of the initial convection, likely along the cold
   front -- crossing northern Mississippi -- and/or a second frontal
   segment/wind shift crossing northern and central Alabama.

   Though instability will remain modest and convergence generally
   weak, westerly flow increasing with height across the region is
   yielding speed shear sufficient for organized updrafts.  As such, a
   few storms may become capable of producing hail.  Gusty/locally
   damaging winds will also be possible in a few locales --
   particularly if any upscale growth into line segments can occur
   through this afternoon/early evening.

 

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

There should be more development further west. The HRRR brings another line through late this afternoon/early evening, but the 3km NAM isn't as excited.

HRRR

1438751389_HRRR3-kmGeorgiaSimulatedRadar-25.gif.11610da83c0676593ff64faada9327aa.gif

 

3km NAM

1185164768_NAM-WRF3-kmMetroRegionsGeorgiaSimulatedRadar-25.gif.269e0898d033b05f955c7a42d67ea441.gif

What does these models not being in agreement mean

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38 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

What does these models not being in agreement mean

It would mean that there would be uncertainty in what might happen. But... the storms are beginning to form in Alabama with several reports of hail.

20190325_2115_kffc_BR_0.5-ffc-25-5.thumb.png.d63b72ce7583ed42fe9e57904c47cd3f.png

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It would mean that there would be uncertainty in what might happen. But... the storms are beginning to form in Alabama with several reports of hail.

20190325_2115_kffc_BR_0.5-ffc-25-5.thumb.png.d63b72ce7583ed42fe9e57904c47cd3f.png

Which model seems more accurate at the moment

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